Chelsea v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Chelsea

15:00 UTC

Leeds United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 748h before kick-off

Chelsea win

48.1%

model 45.1%

Draw

22.6%

model 22.7%

Leeds United win

29.3%

model 32.1%

482329

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.0%
2-1 9.0%
1-2 7.4%
2-2 6.7%
1-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.1%	Under 2.5	35.9%
BTTS yes	64.8%	BTTS no	35.2%
Chelsea 1+	83.6%	Chelsea 2+	53.9%
Leeds United 1+	77.6%	Leeds United 2+	44.1%

Expected goals 1.81 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 56%

58.5% fair odds 1.71

moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Chelsea not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Chelsea have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Leeds United have allowed 1.63.
At home Chelsea average 1.93 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Chelsea have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for Leeds United and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for Chelsea and 1.50 for Leeds United.

Why Chelsea

Chelsea have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Leeds United have allowed 1.63. At home Chelsea average 1.93 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Leeds United can win

Leeds United have created 1.44 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.76. Away from home Leeds United average 1.54 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Chelsea were missing 0.75 expected goal involvements a match against 0.31.

Key players

Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.56), Cole Palmer (0.47), Enzo Fernández (0.43). Leeds United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.57), Anton Stach (0.29), Lukas Nmecha (0.23).

Availability

1 of Chelsea's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Chelsea's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Leeds United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Leeds United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chelsea: 55% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Leeds United: 48% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Chelsea are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.0%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DWLWWLDLWW last 10 scored 21 from 14.5 xG conceded 17 from 17.7 xG

Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDDWDLD last 10 scored 11 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 16.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	452332	1.81–1.50	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	452628	1.64–1.25	1-1 12%	55%	59%
dc-xg	442233	1.83–1.58	1-1 10%	66%	67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win	53.4%	51.5%	43.0%	1.20×	1.94
Leeds United to win	25.1%	27.9%	32.3%	0.86×	3.59
Draw	21.5%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & both teams score	30.5%	29.6%	22.9%	1.29×	3.38
Chelsea & not both score	22.9%	21.8%	20.1%	1.08×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.0%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Leeds United & both teams score	15.3%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.57
Leeds United & not both score	9.8%	8.3%	17.1%	0.49×	12.00
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & over 1.5	46.3%	45.0%	36.6%	1.23×	2.22
Chelsea & over 2.5	39.2%	34.9%	30.3%	1.15×	2.87
Chelsea & under 3.5	28.6%	26.1%	26.6%	0.98×	3.84
Chelsea & over 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	16.5%	1.31×	4.63
Leeds United & over 1.5	20.4%	21.6%	25.3%	0.85×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.0%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Leeds United & over 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Leeds United & under 3.5	15.4%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Chelsea & under 2.5	14.3%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.9%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.9%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Leeds United & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	10.6%	0.75×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.6%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Leeds United & under 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Chelsea & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Leeds United & under 1.5	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1UP)	69.5%	70.2%	62.0%	1.13×	1.42
Leeds United (1UP)	45.8%	43.9%	51.5%	0.85×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2UP)	53.4%	55.2%	44.7%	1.23×	1.81
Leeds United (2UP)	25.1%	25.0%	34.5%	0.73×	3.99

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win 2nd half	47.2%	45.9%	36.2%	1.27×	2.18
2nd half drawn	29.3%	25.8%	31.1%	0.83×	3.87
Leeds United to win 2nd half	23.6%	24.3%	32.8%	0.74×	4.12

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	84.3%	79.9%	1.06×	1.19
Leeds United over 0.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	52.7%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Leeds United under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	47.3%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
Leeds United over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	15.7%	20.1%	0.78×	6.35

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.5%	73.9%	58.3%	1.27×	1.35
Chelsea under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.2%	63.3%	75.2%	0.84×	1.58
Chelsea over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.8%	36.7%	24.8%	1.48×	2.73
Chelsea under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.5%	26.1%	41.7%	0.63×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (+2.5)	84.7%	82.5%	89.1%	0.93×	1.21
Chelsea (+0.5)	74.9%	73.7%	67.7%	1.09×	1.36
Leeds United (+1.5)	68.6%	68.7%	76.0%	0.90×	1.46
Chelsea (-0.5)	53.4%	52.4%	43.0%	1.22×	1.91
Leeds United (+0.5)	46.6%	47.6%	57.0%	0.83×	2.10
Chelsea (-1.5)	31.4%	31.3%	24.0%	1.30×	3.19
Leeds United (-0.5)	25.1%	26.3%	32.3%	0.81×	3.80
Chelsea (-2.5)	15.3%	17.5%	10.9%	1.60×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede	86.7%	86.3%	78.1%	1.11×	1.16
Leeds United clean sheet	13.3%	13.7%	21.9%	0.63×	7.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede in 1st half	53.3%	50.6%	51.2%	0.99×	1.98
Leeds United clean sheet in 1st half	46.7%	49.4%	48.8%	1.01×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede in 2nd half	71.5%	70.8%	58.3%	1.21×	1.41
Leeds United clean sheet in 2nd half	28.5%	29.2%	41.7%	0.70×	3.42

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 6.5 corners	90.7%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Leeds United under 5.5 corners	83.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Leeds United under 4.5 corners	71.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Leeds United over 2.5 corners	62.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Leeds United under 3.5 corners	56.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Leeds United over 3.5 corners	43.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Leeds United under 2.5 corners	37.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Leeds United over 4.5 corners	28.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Leeds United over 5.5 corners	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Leeds United over 6.5 corners	9.3%	10.1%	—	—	9.88

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 3.5 goals	95.4%	97.5%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Leeds United under 2.5 goals	85.0%	87.8%	85.1%	1.03×	1.14
Leeds United over 0.5 goals	73.6%	71.9%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Leeds United under 1.5 goals	61.6%	63.2%	60.6%	1.04×	1.58
Leeds United over 1.5 goals	38.4%	36.8%	39.4%	0.94×	2.72
Leeds United under 0.5 goals	26.4%	28.1%	25.0%	1.12×	3.56
Leeds United over 2.5 goals	15.0%	12.2%	14.9%	0.82×	8.19
Leeds United over 3.5 goals	4.6%	2.5%	5.4%	0.47×	39.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 1st half	90.0%	89.4%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Leeds United under 0.5 in 1st half	58.7%	62.0%	59.7%	1.04×	1.61
Leeds United over 0.5 in 1st half	41.3%	38.0%	40.3%	0.94×	2.63
Leeds United over 1.5 in 1st half	10.1%	10.6%	10.7%	0.99×	9.46

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United scores equally in both	38.9%	37.4%	37.5%	1.00×	2.68
Leeds United scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.4%	40.8%	0.91×	2.68
Leeds United scores more in 1st half	22.5%	22.0%	21.7%	1.01×	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (away no bet)	71.3%	68.4%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.7%	31.6%	36.5%	0.87×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United even goals	53.5%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Leeds United odd goals	46.5%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.4%	81.3%	80.0%	1.02×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.6%	18.7%	20.0%	0.94×	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.4%	72.3%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.6%	27.7%	29.9%	0.93×	3.61

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.0%	62.3%	61.6%	1.01×	1.60
Chelsea to score 2+ in a row	49.9%	46.3%	39.2%	1.18×	2.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.5%	25.2%	26.1%	0.97×	3.96
Leeds United to score 2+ in a row	27.0%	25.2%	29.7%	0.85×	3.97
Chelsea to score 3+ in a row	21.7%	19.6%	16.4%	1.19×	5.10
Leeds United to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	5.6%	10.1%	0.55×	17.95

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea corners (+3.5)	96.0%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Chelsea corners (+2.5)	93.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea corners (+1.5)	88.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Chelsea corners (-1.5)	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Leeds United corners (+3.5)	56.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Chelsea corners (-2.5)	53.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Leeds United corners (+2.5)	46.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Chelsea corners (-3.5)	43.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Leeds United corners (+1.5)	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Leeds United corners (-1.5)	11.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Leeds United corners (-2.5)	7.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Leeds United corners (-3.5)	4.0%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	58.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-0	7.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-0	7.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
Any other score	6.5%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.51
1-2	6.3%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-2	6.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
3-1	6.4%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
3-0	4.8%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.29
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.30
0-1	4.7%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.29
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-2	4.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	2.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	3.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2nd half DNB)	66.7%	67.2%	52.5%	1.28×	1.49
Leeds United (2nd half DNB)	33.3%	32.8%	47.5%	0.69×	3.05

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT (DNB)	61.7%	65.5%	59.8%	1.10×	1.53
Leeds United leading at HT (DNB)	38.3%	34.5%	40.2%	0.86×	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or Leeds United (12)	78.5%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Chelsea or draw (1X)	74.9%	72.1%	67.7%	1.07×	1.39
Leeds United or draw (X2)	46.6%	48.5%	57.0%	0.85×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw at HT	76.9%	79.1%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
Leeds United or draw at HT	62.8%	61.6%	63.9%	0.96×	1.62
Chelsea or Leeds United at HT	60.3%	61.5%	60.2%	1.02×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw (1UP)	74.9%	79.8%	74.3%	1.07×	1.25
Leeds United or draw (1UP)	46.6%	53.2%	65.3%	0.81×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw in 2nd half	76.4%	75.7%	67.2%	1.13×	1.32
Chelsea or Leeds United in 2nd half	70.7%	74.2%	68.9%	1.08×	1.35
Leeds United or draw in 2nd half	52.8%	54.2%	63.8%	0.85×	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.3%	58.4%	57.1%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.7%	41.6%	42.9%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (DNB)	68.1%	67.4%	57.1%	1.18×	1.48
Leeds United (DNB)	31.9%	32.6%	42.9%	0.76×	3.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score first	58.2%	62.2%	51.8%	1.20×	1.61
Leeds United to score first	38.3%	32.9%	43.3%	0.76×	3.04
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.8%	56.7%	58.0%	0.98×	1.77
Not both teams to score	36.2%	43.3%	42.0%	1.03×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	54.4%	47.3%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	25.5%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	10.7%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.0%	79.6%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	23.0%	20.4%	17.9%	1.14×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.7%	65.6%	68.6%	0.96×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.3%	34.4%	31.4%	1.10×	2.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.3%	52.9%	55.9%	0.95×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	30.6%	26.9%	24.7%	1.09×	3.72
Both score 1st half only	13.4%	10.7%	12.8%	0.84×	9.35
Both score in both halves	8.7%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.63

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.9%	81.2%	80.4%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.1%	18.8%	19.6%	0.96×	5.32

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.3%	59.8%	61.6%	0.97×	1.67
A half without a goal	36.7%	40.2%	38.4%	1.05×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.7%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.6%	35.1%	32.8%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.3%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	5.4%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.9%	35.7%	1.01×	2.78
Leeds United to score exactly 0	26.4%	27.4%	25.0%	1.09×	3.66
Leeds United to score exactly 2	23.4%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Leeds United to score 3+	15.0%	12.9%	14.9%	0.86×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score 3+	32.8%	32.6%	22.9%	1.42×	3.07
Chelsea to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 1	26.8%	26.5%	29.2%	0.91×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 0	13.3%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.7%	38.5%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Chelsea leading at HT	37.2%	38.4%	36.1%	1.07×	2.60
Leeds United leading at HT	23.1%	20.9%	24.3%	0.86×	4.78

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea -1: 2	46.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Chelsea -1: 1	31.4%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Chelsea -1: X	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:1)	46.6%	46.1%	57.0%	0.81×	2.17
Chelsea (0:1)	31.4%	30.1%	24.0%	1.25×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	22.0%	24.2%	19.1%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:2)	68.6%	72.2%	76.0%	0.95×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.2%	15.3%	13.2%	1.16×	6.54
Chelsea (0:2)	15.3%	15.3%	10.9%	1.40×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:3)	84.7%	85.4%	89.1%	0.96×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.1%	5.8%	7.6%	0.77×	17.18
Chelsea (0:3)	6.2%	5.8%	3.4%	1.72×	17.23

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:4)	93.8%	94.5%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.65
Chelsea (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.86

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1:0)	74.9%	72.5%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	14.5%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.86
Leeds United (1:0)	10.6%	12.7%	15.7%	0.81×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2:0)	89.4%	88.5%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.0%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.69
Leeds United (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.9%	50.3%	49.6%	1.01×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	23.9%	24.4%	25.8%	0.94×	4.10
Halves equal	21.3%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede	73.6%	73.2%	75.0%	0.98×	1.37
Chelsea clean sheet	26.4%	26.8%	25.0%	1.07×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half	58.7%	62.0%	59.7%	1.04×	1.61
Chelsea to concede in 1st half	41.3%	38.0%	40.3%	0.94×	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 2nd half	54.9%	52.8%	57.8%	0.91×	1.89
Chelsea clean sheet in 2nd half	45.1%	47.2%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 2.5 corners	90.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea over 3.5 corners	81.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Chelsea over 4.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Chelsea over 5.5 corners	57.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Chelsea under 6.5 corners	54.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Chelsea over 6.5 corners	45.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Chelsea under 5.5 corners	42.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Chelsea under 4.5 corners	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Chelsea under 3.5 corners	18.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Chelsea under 2.5 corners	9.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 0.5 goals	86.7%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Chelsea under 3.5 goals	85.4%	87.2%	91.5%	0.95×	1.15
Chelsea under 2.5 goals	67.2%	68.0%	77.1%	0.88×	1.47
Chelsea over 1.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	48.9%	1.20×	1.71
Chelsea under 1.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	51.1%	0.81×	2.42
Chelsea over 2.5 goals	32.8%	32.0%	22.9%	1.40×	3.12
Chelsea over 3.5 goals	14.6%	12.8%	8.5%	1.50×	7.84
Chelsea under 0.5 goals	13.3%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half	82.2%	83.7%	84.4%	0.99×	1.20
Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	50.4%	51.2%	0.98×	1.99
Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	49.6%	48.8%	1.02×	2.02
Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half	17.8%	16.3%	15.6%	1.05×	6.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea scores more in 2nd half	48.0%	47.5%	36.1%	1.32×	2.11
Chelsea scores equally in both	29.4%	27.9%	37.7%	0.74×	3.59
Chelsea scores more in 1st half	22.6%	21.2%	26.3%	0.81×	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (home no bet)	53.8%	51.4%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	46.2%	48.6%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea even goals	50.9%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Chelsea odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.4%	28.0%	28.1%	0.99×	3.58
HT 1-0	20.9%	24.4%	21.5%	1.13×	4.10
HT 0-1	14.6%	11.0%	14.8%	0.75×	9.05
HT 1-1	11.1%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.09
HT 2-0	8.0%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.48
Any other HT score	5.9%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.51
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.00
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.02
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.08
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT	30.5%	32.0%	26.4%	1.21×	3.12
Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT	18.7%	16.7%	13.9%	1.21×	5.98
Leeds United at HT / Leeds United at FT	13.7%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.6%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.91
Draw at HT / Leeds United at FT	9.4%	6.0%	12.3%	0.49×	16.56
Leeds United at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	4.8%	1.25×	16.68
Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	6.4%	0.55×	28.59
Leeds United at HT / Chelsea at FT	4.2%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.61
Chelsea at HT / Leeds United at FT	2.0%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score last	58.2%	56.5%	50.1%	1.13×	1.77
Leeds United to score last	38.3%	38.7%	45.1%	0.86×	2.58
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time	69.5%	69.5%	62.0%	1.12×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.5%	54.9%	50.6%	1.08×	1.82
Leeds United to lead by 1 at any time	45.8%	44.5%	51.5%	0.86×	2.25
Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time	39.7%	34.7%	29.9%	1.16×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.2%	19.7%	21.2%	0.93×	5.08
Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time	18.8%	15.0%	13.2%	1.13×	6.68
Leeds United to lead by 2 at any time	17.2%	14.9%	21.0%	0.71×	6.69
Leeds United to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	6.7%	8.1%	0.82×	15.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea most corners	73.7%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Leeds United most corners	18.0%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.2%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.2%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.3%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.9%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.1%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.6%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.5%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.7%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.7%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.6%	39.2%	32.8%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.5%	35.2%	36.6%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.8%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.2%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	5.4%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea never behind	50.7%	62.3%	48.5%	1.28×	1.61
Leeds United never behind	27.0%	30.0%	38.0%	0.79×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.7%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.3%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.7%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.4%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	65.0%	66.3%	58.5%	1.13×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	57.0%	58.6%	64.5%	0.91×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	43.0%	41.4%	35.5%	1.17×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.0%	33.7%	41.5%	0.81×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	24.6%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.3%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.2%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.0%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.0%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.8%	67.5%	78.9%	0.86×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.2%	55.7%	46.1%	1.21×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.8%	44.3%	53.9%	0.82×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.2%	32.5%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.0%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.0%	13.3%	7.5%	1.78×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.8%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.8%	89.1%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.6%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.8%	63.2%	64.3%	0.98×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.2%	36.8%	35.7%	1.03×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.4%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.2%	10.9%	12.8%	0.85×	9.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.2%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	66.2%	68.6%	75.7%	0.91×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.8%	61.5%	54.4%	1.13×	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.2%	38.5%	45.6%	0.84×	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	33.8%	31.4%	24.3%	1.29×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.8%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United not to score in both halves	77.3%	78.4%	76.9%	1.02×	1.28
Chelsea not to score in both halves	61.8%	63.6%	68.6%	0.93×	1.57
Chelsea to score in both halves	38.2%	36.4%	31.4%	1.16×	2.75
Leeds United to score in both halves	22.7%	21.6%	23.1%	0.93×	4.63

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.8%	60.3%	58.0%	1.04×	1.66
Only Chelsea scores	22.9%	22.3%	20.1%	1.11×	4.49
Only Leeds United scores	9.8%	7.1%	17.1%	0.42×	14.02
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.7%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.3%	12.1%	6.7%	1.81×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.8%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.4%	28.3%	28.1%	1.00×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	23.0%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.2%	10.8%	12.8%	0.84×	9.27

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.8%	58.4%	54.4%	1.07×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.4%	29.2%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	12.8%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United not to win both halves	94.6%	94.2%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Chelsea not to win both halves	82.4%	83.9%	86.4%	0.97×	1.19
Chelsea to win both halves	17.6%	16.1%	13.6%	1.18×	6.20
Leeds United to win both halves	5.4%	5.8%	8.7%	0.67×	17.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win either half	66.8%	67.7%	58.7%	1.15×	1.48
Leeds United to win neither half	58.8%	59.1%	51.7%	1.14×	1.69
Leeds United to win either half	41.2%	40.9%	48.4%	0.85×	2.45
Chelsea to win neither half	33.2%	32.3%	41.3%	0.78×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United not to win to nil	90.2%	92.1%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Chelsea not to win to nil	77.1%	78.1%	79.9%	0.98×	1.28
Chelsea to win to nil	22.9%	21.9%	20.1%	1.09×	4.57
Leeds United to win to nil	9.8%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.61

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea by 1	22.0%	24.1%	19.1%	1.26×	4.15
Draw	21.5%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Chelsea by 2	16.2%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87
Chelsea by 3+	15.3%	17.0%	10.9%	1.56×	5.87
Leeds United by 1	14.5%	11.8%	16.7%	0.70×	8.50
Leeds United by 2	7.0%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.91
Leeds United by 3+	3.6%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.79