Chelsea v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.76 – -1.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
37.8%
Draw
24.7%
Liverpool win
37.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.96 | 1-1 9% | 69% | 69% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.24 xGLiverpool 2.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Malo Gusto |
| 18' |
 Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 25' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Marc Cucurella |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 45' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 50' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 51' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 52' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 58' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.82 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alexander Isak |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Marc Guiu | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Estêvão |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 83' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Chelsea |
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Reece James |
| 88' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Reece James |
| 88' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 90' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Estêvão |
| 93' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 95' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marc Cucurella |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.03 | 1.10 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Malo Gusto DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 1.05 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Reece James DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.02 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 1.04 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| João Pedro FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Josh Acheampong DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Romeo Lavia Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Jorrel Hato Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Estêvão Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 1.01 |
| Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.57 | 1.47 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 76 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.82 | 1.59 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Wirtz Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Hugo Ekitike Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |