Chelsea v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.83 – 0.61
Goals − xG
-0.52 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
23.8%
Draw
23.2%
Liverpool win
53.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–2.02 | 1-2 9% | 65% | 64% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 3.52 xGLiverpool 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedro Neto |
| 4' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 6' |
 Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 15' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 28' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wataru Endo |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 30' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 47' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 55' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.77 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 55' |
Liverpool |
Jarell Quansah | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 65' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 67' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 67' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Konstantinos Tsimikas |
| 79' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 79' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 80' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jadon Sancho |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 84' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Goal | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 86' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 95' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1.31 | 1.06 | 2.04 |
| Noni Madueke AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.15 | 0.14 | 1.72 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.44 | 0.92 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.70 |
| Moisés Caicedo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.66 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1.48 |
| Romeo Lavia DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.73 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Reece James Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jarell Quansah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Curtis Jones DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| Harvey Elliott AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Wataru Endo DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Diogo Jota FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Conor Bradley Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Alexis Mac Allister Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |