Chelsea v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 18
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.32
Goals − xG
-1.22 – +0.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
37.3%
Draw
29.7%
Manchester City win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.43–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–1.72 | 1-1 9% | 69% | 69% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.22 xGManchester City 2.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 8' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 9' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrey Santos |
| 18' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Estêvão |
| 20' |
 Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 21' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 38' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 44' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
Andrey Santos | 0.17 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 46' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 46' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Semenyo |
| 50' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 53' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abduqodir Khusanov |
| 56' |
Manchester City |
Marc Guehi | 0.27 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 65' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abduqodir Khusanov |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 69' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 73' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Manchester City |
Abduqodir Khusanov | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Guehi |
| 78' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Manchester City |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Romeo Lavia |
| 84' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 94' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matheus Nunes |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.06 | 0.99 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 1.19 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.57 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1.13 |
| Rodri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bernardo Silva DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Jéremy Doku AML | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.10 | 1.09 |
| Mathis Cherki AMC | 77 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.24 | 0.88 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sávio Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Phil Foden Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Mateo Kovacic Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.64 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.80 |
| Pedro Neto AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.66 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Jorrel Hato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| João Pedro FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Andrey Santos DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Estêvão AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Romeo Lavia Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.57 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dário Essugo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Josh Acheampong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |