Chelsea v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 11
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.06 – +0.82
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
30.4%
Draw
21.9%
Manchester City win
47.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.95 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.06 xGManchester City 1.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
| 9' |
 Chelsea |
Wesley Fofana | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 10' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bernardo Silva |
| 21' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 34' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
| 36' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 38' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 39' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 58' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romeo Lavia |
| 72' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 83' |
Manchester City |
Mateo Kovacic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 94' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Neto |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Bernardo Silva AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| Jéremy Doku AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Rico Lewis DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Ederson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Sávio AML | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Phil Foden Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Cole Palmer AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 0.77 |
| Romeo Lavia DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| Christopher Nkunku AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Pedro Neto Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Renato Veiga Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |