Chelsea v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Chelsea

12:30 UTC

Manchester United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 241h before kick-off

Chelsea win

38.4%

model 37.4%

Draw

23.2%

model 23.2%

Manchester United win

38.5%

model 39.5%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.2%
1-2 8.4%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 6.8%
0-1 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.3%	Under 2.5	36.7%
BTTS yes	64.7%	BTTS no	35.3%
Chelsea 1+	79.9%	Chelsea 2+	47.7%
Manchester United 1+	80.9%	Manchester United 2+	49.3%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 56%

58.5% fair odds 1.71

moderate signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1686 Elo against 1637.
Manchester United have created 1.97 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.76.
Away from home Manchester United average 1.64 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester United have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.4% for Chelsea and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.61 for Chelsea and 1.66 for Manchester United.

Why Chelsea

Chelsea have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Manchester United have allowed 1.45. At home Chelsea average 1.93 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.61 to 1.66. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Manchester United can win

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1686 Elo against 1637. Manchester United have created 1.97 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.76. Away from home Manchester United average 1.64 xG a match.

Key players

Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.56), Cole Palmer (0.47), Enzo Fernández (0.43). Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.67), Bryan Mbeumo (0.57), Benjamin Sesko (0.32).

Availability

1 of Chelsea's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Chelsea's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Manchester United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chelsea: 55% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United: 51% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DWLWWLDLWW last 10 scored 21 from 14.5 xG conceded 17 from 17.7 xG

Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLWDLDDD last 10 scored 16 from 19.7 xG conceded 12 from 14.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372339	1.61–1.66	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	392437	1.79–1.75	1-1 10%	69%	70%
dc-xg	432334	1.79–1.56	1-1 10%	65%	66%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win	45.4%	47.3%	43.0%	1.10×	2.11
Manchester United to win	33.2%	30.4%	32.3%	0.94×	3.29
Draw	21.4%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & both teams score	29.4%	25.2%	22.9%	1.10×	3.97
Manchester United & both teams score	22.1%	21.8%	15.3%	1.42×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Chelsea & not both score	16.0%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.57
Manchester United & not both score	11.1%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.5%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & over 1.5	40.4%	40.2%	36.6%	1.10×	2.49
Chelsea & over 2.5	35.4%	34.9%	30.3%	1.15×	2.87
Manchester United & over 1.5	28.9%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.84
Manchester United & over 2.5	25.3%	26.1%	19.8%	1.32×	3.84
Chelsea & over 3.5	23.6%	21.6%	16.5%	1.31×	4.63
Chelsea & under 3.5	21.8%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester United & under 3.5	17.0%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Manchester United & over 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Draw & over 2.5	10.4%	12.8%	8.6%	1.50×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	11.0%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	10.4%	12.8%	8.6%	1.50×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	11.0%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Chelsea & under 2.5	10.0%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Manchester United & under 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Chelsea & under 1.5	5.0%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Manchester United & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	2.5%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1UP)	64.8%	63.0%	62.0%	1.02×	1.59
Manchester United (1UP)	54.8%	52.7%	51.5%	1.02×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2UP)	45.4%	49.9%	44.7%	1.12×	2.00
Manchester United (2UP)	33.2%	30.5%	34.5%	0.89×	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win 2nd half	35.3%	36.1%	32.8%	1.10×	2.77
Chelsea to win 2nd half	35.2%	36.1%	36.2%	1.00×	2.77
2nd half drawn	29.5%	25.8%	31.1%	0.83×	3.87

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	75.1%	79.9%	0.94×	1.33
Manchester United over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.9%	70.0%	57.8%	1.21×	1.43
Manchester United under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.1%	30.0%	42.2%	0.71×	3.34
Manchester United over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	24.9%	20.1%	1.24×	4.02

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.9%	73.9%	75.2%	0.98×	1.35
Chelsea over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	70.6%	58.3%	1.21×	1.42
Chelsea under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	29.4%	41.7%	0.71×	3.40
Chelsea over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.1%	26.1%	24.8%	1.05×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (+2.5)	88.0%	88.5%	89.1%	0.99×	1.13
Manchester United (+1.5)	74.4%	73.7%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Chelsea (+0.5)	66.8%	68.7%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
Manchester United (+0.5)	54.6%	52.4%	57.0%	0.92×	1.91
Chelsea (-0.5)	45.4%	47.6%	43.0%	1.11×	2.10
Manchester United (-0.5)	33.2%	31.3%	32.3%	0.97×	3.19
Chelsea (-1.5)	25.6%	26.3%	24.0%	1.10×	3.80
Chelsea (-2.5)	12.0%	11.5%	10.9%	1.06×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	86.4%	86.3%	78.1%	1.11×	1.16
Manchester United clean sheet	13.6%	13.7%	21.9%	0.63×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	60.2%	65.0%	51.2%	1.27×	1.54
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	39.8%	35.0%	48.8%	0.72×	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede in 2nd half	65.8%	65.7%	58.3%	1.13×	1.52
Manchester United clean sheet in 2nd half	34.2%	34.3%	41.7%	0.82×	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	84.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	74.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	71.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	54.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	45.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	28.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	25.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	15.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	81.5%	81.5%	75.0%	1.09×	1.23
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	85.1%	0.90×	1.31
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	50.3%	53.5%	39.4%	1.36×	1.87
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	49.7%	46.5%	60.6%	0.77×	2.15
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	14.9%	1.59×	4.21
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	18.5%	18.6%	25.0%	0.74×	5.39
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	87.4%	89.3%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	55.6%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	44.4%	40.3%	1.10×	2.25
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	12.6%	10.7%	10.7%	1.00×	9.35

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United scores more in 2nd half	46.5%	48.1%	40.8%	1.18×	2.08
Manchester United scores equally in both	32.8%	33.7%	37.5%	0.90×	2.97
Manchester United scores more in 1st half	20.7%	21.9%	21.7%	1.01×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (away no bet)	67.9%	66.4%	63.5%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.1%	33.6%	36.5%	0.92×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	51.7%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Manchester United odd goals	48.3%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	71.3%	76.5%	80.0%	0.96×	1.31
Both halves over 1.5 goals	28.7%	23.5%	20.0%	1.18×	4.25

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	79.9%	72.6%	70.1%	1.04×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	20.1%	27.4%	29.9%	0.92×	3.66

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.9%	71.9%	61.6%	1.17×	1.39
Chelsea to score 2+ in a row	47.1%	46.1%	39.2%	1.18×	2.17
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	37.2%	36.6%	29.7%	1.23×	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.8%	29.1%	26.1%	1.12×	3.43
Chelsea to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.3%	16.4%	0.99×	6.14
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.0%	10.1%	1.20×	8.30

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea corners (+3.5)	92.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea corners (+2.5)	87.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Chelsea corners (+1.5)	81.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	67.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	57.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Chelsea corners (-1.5)	53.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	46.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Chelsea corners (-2.5)	42.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Chelsea corners (-3.5)	32.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	18.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	12.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	7.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	72.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	27.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	8.5%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-2	7.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
Any other score	7.9%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.50
1-0	5.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-0	5.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
3-1	5.6%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
3-2	4.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.29
0-0	2.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.31
0-1	4.2%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	4.0%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-3	2.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.30
3-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.31
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	2.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	2.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2nd half DNB)	50.1%	52.6%	47.5%	1.11×	1.90
Chelsea (2nd half DNB)	49.9%	47.4%	52.5%	0.90×	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT (DNB)	63.9%	65.8%	59.8%	1.10×	1.52
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	36.1%	34.2%	40.2%	0.85×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or Manchester United (12)	78.6%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Chelsea or draw (1X)	66.8%	69.6%	67.7%	1.03×	1.44
Manchester United or draw (X2)	54.6%	52.7%	57.0%	0.92×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw at HT	76.7%	79.1%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
Chelsea or Manchester United at HT	64.4%	61.6%	60.2%	1.02×	1.62
Manchester United or draw at HT	58.8%	57.2%	63.9%	0.89×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw (1UP)	66.8%	76.2%	74.3%	1.03×	1.31
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	54.8%	58.9%	65.3%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or Manchester United in 2nd half	70.5%	74.2%	68.9%	1.08×	1.35
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	64.8%	63.9%	63.8%	1.00×	1.56
Chelsea or draw in 2nd half	64.7%	63.9%	67.2%	0.95×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	54.6%	50.2%	57.1%	0.88×	1.99
Neither half drawn	45.4%	49.8%	42.9%	1.16×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (DNB)	57.8%	58.1%	57.1%	1.02×	1.72
Manchester United (DNB)	42.2%	41.9%	42.9%	0.98×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score first	52.8%	53.4%	51.8%	1.03×	1.87
Manchester United to score first	44.7%	41.8%	43.3%	0.97×	2.39
No goal scored	2.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.4%	62.4%	58.0%	1.08×	1.60
Not both teams to score	29.6%	37.6%	42.0%	0.90×	2.66

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	61.9%	50.4%	46.7%	1.08×	1.98
Not both score & under 2.5	20.4%	27.7%	30.2%	0.92×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	9.2%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06
Both score & under 2.5	8.5%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	70.2%	80.4%	82.1%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	29.8%	19.6%	17.9%	1.10×	5.09

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	56.6%	64.7%	68.6%	0.94×	1.55
Both teams to score in 2nd half	43.4%	35.3%	31.4%	1.12×	2.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	41.0%	50.2%	55.9%	0.90×	1.99
Both score 2nd half only	31.4%	27.0%	24.7%	1.10×	3.70
Both score 1st half only	15.6%	14.9%	12.8%	1.17×	6.69
Both score in both halves	11.9%	10.7%	6.8%	1.56×	9.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.5%	79.6%	80.4%	0.99×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	27.5%	20.4%	19.6%	1.04×	4.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	69.3%	66.6%	61.6%	1.08×	1.50
A half without a goal	30.7%	33.4%	38.4%	0.87×	2.99

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.2%	42.1%	32.8%	1.29×	2.37
2-3 goals	38.0%	35.1%	46.3%	0.76×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.8%	16.9%	18.3%	0.92×	5.92
7+ goals	8.0%	7.6%	2.8%	2.72×	13.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score exactly 1	31.2%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.66
Manchester United to score 3+	23.9%	22.3%	14.9%	1.49×	4.48
Manchester United to score exactly 0	18.5%	19.6%	25.0%	0.78×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score 3+	32.2%	32.6%	22.9%	1.42×	3.07
Chelsea to score exactly 1	27.1%	26.5%	29.2%	0.91×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 0	13.6%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT	41.2%	42.8%	36.1%	1.19×	2.33
Draw at HT	35.6%	38.4%	39.8%	0.96×	2.61
Manchester United leading at HT	23.3%	20.9%	24.3%	0.86×	4.77

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea -1: 2	54.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Chelsea -1: 1	25.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Chelsea -1: X	19.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:1)	54.6%	51.3%	57.0%	0.90×	1.95
Chelsea (0:1)	25.6%	27.0%	24.0%	1.13×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	19.8%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:2)	74.4%	75.7%	76.0%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	13.6%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.09
Chelsea (0:2)	12.0%	11.0%	10.9%	1.01×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:3)	88.0%	90.6%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.3%	5.8%	7.6%	0.77×	17.21
Chelsea (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.98

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:4)	95.3%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.75
Chelsea (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.93

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1:0)	66.8%	70.1%	67.7%	1.04×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	16.7%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85
Manchester United (1:0)	16.4%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2:0)	83.6%	84.6%	84.3%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.7%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.66
Manchester United (2:0)	6.7%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.8%	50.2%	49.6%	1.01×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.2%	25.8%	1.02×	3.81
Halves equal	20.7%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede	81.5%	80.8%	75.0%	1.08×	1.24
Chelsea clean sheet	18.5%	19.2%	25.0%	0.77×	5.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half	54.2%	55.6%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Chelsea to concede in 1st half	45.8%	44.4%	40.3%	1.10×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 2nd half	65.9%	67.0%	57.8%	1.16×	1.49
Chelsea clean sheet in 2nd half	34.1%	33.0%	42.2%	0.78×	3.03

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 2.5 corners	88.2%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Chelsea over 3.5 corners	77.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Chelsea over 4.5 corners	64.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Chelsea under 6.5 corners	60.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Chelsea over 5.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Chelsea under 5.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Chelsea over 6.5 corners	39.1%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Chelsea under 4.5 corners	35.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Chelsea under 3.5 corners	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Chelsea under 2.5 corners	11.8%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 0.5 goals	86.4%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Chelsea under 3.5 goals	85.8%	87.2%	91.5%	0.95×	1.15
Chelsea under 2.5 goals	67.8%	68.0%	77.1%	0.88×	1.47
Chelsea over 1.5 goals	59.2%	58.6%	48.9%	1.20×	1.71
Chelsea under 1.5 goals	40.8%	41.4%	51.1%	0.81×	2.42
Chelsea over 2.5 goals	32.2%	32.0%	22.9%	1.40×	3.12
Chelsea over 3.5 goals	14.2%	12.8%	8.5%	1.50×	7.84
Chelsea under 0.5 goals	13.6%	12.8%	21.9%	0.58×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half	76.5%	77.3%	84.4%	0.92×	1.29
Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half	60.2%	64.7%	51.2%	1.27×	1.55
Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half	39.8%	35.3%	48.8%	0.72×	2.84
Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half	23.5%	22.7%	15.6%	1.45×	4.41

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.9%	36.1%	1.05×	2.64
Chelsea scores equally in both	30.8%	32.9%	37.7%	0.87×	3.04
Chelsea scores more in 1st half	30.6%	32.9%	26.3%	1.25×	3.04

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (home no bet)	60.7%	60.0%	56.6%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.3%	40.0%	43.4%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea even goals	50.9%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Chelsea odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	21.6%	24.4%	28.1%	0.87×	4.10
HT 1-0	19.9%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.37
HT 0-1	13.2%	11.0%	14.8%	0.75×	9.07
HT 1-1	12.2%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08
HT 2-0	9.2%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.46
Any other HT score	8.9%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.46
HT 2-1	5.6%	6.9%	3.7%	1.86×	14.51
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.01
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.04
HT 2-2	1.7%	2.4%	1.0%	2.40×	42.17

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT	30.3%	32.0%	26.4%	1.21×	3.12
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	16.5%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.99
Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT	12.5%	12.6%	13.9%	0.91×	7.91
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	12.6%	12.6%	12.3%	1.03×	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.5%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.92
Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT	6.7%	6.0%	6.4%	0.95×	16.64
Chelsea at HT / Manchester United at FT	4.1%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.61
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.61
Manchester United at HT / Chelsea at FT	2.6%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.67

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score last	52.8%	52.2%	50.1%	1.04×	1.92
Manchester United to score last	44.7%	40.1%	45.1%	0.89×	2.49
No goal scored	2.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.5%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time	64.8%	61.5%	62.0%	0.99×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	59.3%	54.9%	50.6%	1.09×	1.82
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	54.8%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time	34.9%	29.9%	29.9%	1.00×	3.34
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.3%	25.5%	21.2%	1.20×	3.93
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	25.0%	25.4%	21.0%	1.21×	3.93
Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	13.2%	1.13×	6.70
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	9.5%	6.8%	8.1%	0.84×	14.81

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea most corners	63.5%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Manchester United most corners	26.9%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.8%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.4%	79.0%	1.06×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	66.6%	68.8%	77.9%	0.88×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.2%	63.3%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.3%	59.1%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.4%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
1-3 goals	47.3%	48.5%	59.7%	0.81×	2.06
4-6 goals	42.2%	43.6%	32.8%	1.33×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
2-3 goals	38.0%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.5%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	26.3%	30.2%	36.6%	0.83×	3.31
5-6 goals	22.9%	24.5%	14.5%	1.69×	4.08
7+ goals	8.0%	8.9%	2.8%	3.17×	11.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea never behind	42.6%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
Manchester United never behind	32.7%	36.2%	38.0%	0.95×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.3%	51.6%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.7%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.5%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	81.7%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	83.3%	82.3%	93.3%	0.88×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	71.1%	72.5%	58.5%	1.24×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	69.1%	66.3%	82.8%	0.80×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	50.2%	52.5%	35.5%	1.48×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	49.8%	47.5%	64.5%	0.74×	2.11
Over 4.5 goals	30.9%	33.7%	17.2%	1.95×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	28.9%	27.5%	41.5%	0.66×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	16.7%	17.7%	6.7%	2.65×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	18.3%	0.68×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	2.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.2%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	85.8%	86.7%	76.2%	1.14×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	80.5%	81.1%	92.5%	0.88×	1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.5%	61.9%	46.1%	1.34×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	61.7%	61.9%	78.9%	0.78×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	38.3%	38.1%	21.1%	1.81×	2.63
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.5%	38.1%	53.9%	0.71×	2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.5%	18.9%	7.5%	2.53×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.2%	13.3%	23.8%	0.56×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.8%	7.6%	2.9%	2.61×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.1%	85.7%	87.2%	0.98×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.4%	78.2%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	54.7%	55.5%	64.3%	0.86×	1.80
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.3%	44.5%	35.7%	1.25×	2.25
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.6%	21.8%	28.1%	0.78×	4.58
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.9%	14.3%	12.8%	1.12×	6.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	61.7%	75.7%	0.81×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	61.6%	54.4%	1.13×	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	38.4%	45.6%	0.84×	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	38.3%	24.3%	1.58×	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.92

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to score in both halves	69.8%	70.0%	76.9%	0.91×	1.43
Chelsea not to score in both halves	60.4%	63.5%	68.6%	0.93×	1.58
Chelsea to score in both halves	39.6%	36.5%	31.4%	1.16×	2.74
Manchester United to score in both halves	30.2%	30.0%	23.1%	1.30×	3.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.4%	65.9%	58.0%	1.14×	1.52
Only Chelsea scores	16.0%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.25
Only Manchester United scores	11.1%	11.0%	17.1%	0.65×	9.07
Neither team scores	2.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.74

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.9%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.3%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	17.1%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
6 or more goals	16.7%	17.5%	6.7%	2.61×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	14.2%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	9.3%	7.6%	13.4%	0.57×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.5%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.1%	35.9%	36.2%	0.99×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.4%	28.2%	23.0%	1.22×	3.55
No goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.5%	28.1%	0.76×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	19.9%	15.7%	12.8%	1.23×	6.36

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	63.3%	58.8%	54.4%	1.08×	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	25.1%	29.2%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	11.7%	14.2%	15.3%	0.93×	7.02

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to win both halves	91.8%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Chelsea not to win both halves	85.5%	87.8%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Chelsea to win both halves	14.5%	12.2%	13.6%	0.90×	8.20
Manchester United to win both halves	8.2%	5.9%	8.7%	0.68×	16.93

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win either half	61.8%	65.1%	58.7%	1.11×	1.54
Manchester United to win either half	50.3%	54.2%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Manchester United to win neither half	49.7%	45.8%	51.7%	0.89×	2.19
Chelsea to win neither half	38.2%	34.9%	41.3%	0.85×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to win to nil	88.9%	88.1%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Chelsea not to win to nil	84.0%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Chelsea to win to nil	16.0%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92
Manchester United to win to nil	11.1%	11.9%	17.1%	0.70×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.4%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Chelsea by 1	19.8%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.86
Manchester United by 1	16.7%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Chelsea by 2	13.6%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Chelsea by 3+	12.0%	11.8%	10.9%	1.08×	8.51
Manchester United by 2	9.7%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.90
Manchester United by 3+	6.7%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.91