Chelsea v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 5
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.30 – -0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
48.3%
Draw
26.2%
Manchester United win
25.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–1.25 | 2-1 10% | 66% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.30 xGManchester United 0.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 20' |
 Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 27' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 28' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 54' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | Reece James |
| 72' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 77' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrique George |
| 78' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Maguire |
| 79' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noni Madueke AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.03 | 1.10 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Reece James DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrique George FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Romeo Lavia Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Casemiro MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayden Heaven Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |