Chelsea v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 4 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 6
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.39
Set-piece xG
1.07 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-1.17 – +0.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
52.5%
Draw
27.0%
Nottingham Forest win
20.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.74–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.18–1.10 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 2.17 xGNottingham Forest 2.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Dilane Bakwa |
| 9' |
 Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | João Pedro |
| 14' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 25' |
Chelsea |
Jesse Derry | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Romeo Lavia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James McAtee |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 34' |
Chelsea |
Jesse Derry | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 35' | Nottingham Forest | James McAtee | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dilane Bakwa |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.94 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 54' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 58' | Nottingham Forest | James McAtee | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Andrey Santos | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 72' |
Chelsea |
Liam Delap | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 83' |
Chelsea |
Liam Delap | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 84' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 87' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 87' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marc Cucurella |
| 95' |
Chelsea |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwo Awoniyi FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| James McAtee ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.55 |
| Dilane Bakwa MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| Luca Netz DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Ryan Yates MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 60 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolás Domínguez MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jair DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Zach Abbott DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neco Williams Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Elliot Anderson Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Nikola Milenkovic Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Chris Wood Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.07 | 0.86 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Enzo Fernández AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.77 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romeo Lavia DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jesse Derry AML | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Levi Colwill Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Andrey Santos Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Filip Jorgensen Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |