Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 19 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+0.91 – -1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
53.6%
Draw
26.4%
Tottenham Hotspur win
20.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.79–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.17–1.11 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.09 xGTottenham Hotspur 2.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Pedro Porro |
| 13' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jorrel Hato |
| 17' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedro Neto |
| 22' |
Chelsea |
Liam Delap | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 28' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 36' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Conor Gallagher |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 50' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.27 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 55' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 66' |
Chelsea |
Andrey Santos | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Enzo Fernández |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 71' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pape Sarr |
| 73' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 73' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pape Sarr |
| 81' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 93' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.49 | 1.45 |
| Mathys Tel AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.65 |
| Conor Gallagher AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.28 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Randal Kolo Muani AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Maddison Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Djed Spence Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Santos DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.81 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.83 |
| Liam Delap FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Enzo Fernández AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| Jorrel Hato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Acheampong DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trevoh Chalobah Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mamadou Sarr Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shumaira Mheuka Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dário Essugo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |