Chelsea v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 3 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 15
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
15 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.58 – -0.19
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
72.1%
Draw
14.7%
West Ham United win
13.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWLWWLDLWW last 10
scored 21
from 14.5 xG
conceded 17
from 17.7 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.96–1.25 | 2-1 8% | 79% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.42 xGWest Ham United 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Reece James |
| 6' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 14' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 18' |
 West Ham United |
Andy Irving | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Max Kilman |
| 22' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Levi Colwill |
| 24' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Reece James |
| 30' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 37' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Cresswell |
| 40' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 41' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
West Ham United |
Emerson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 47' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Reece James |
| 49' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 51' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Cresswell | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Cresswell | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 59' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Guiu |
| 59' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 63' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 63' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 68' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 69' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Andy Irving |
| 73' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 77' |
Chelsea |
Levi Colwill | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 78' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 93' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jarrod Bowen |
| 94' |
West Ham United |
Danny Ings | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Guilherme |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Kudus AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Jarrod Bowen FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Aaron Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Irving MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Carlos Soler AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| Vladimir Coufal DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Emerson DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Oliver Scarles Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lewis Orford Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.29 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Reece James DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Jadon Sancho AML | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 55 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| Pedro Neto Sub | 35 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Marc Guiu Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Trevoh Chalobah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |