Chicago Fire v Orlando City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 29 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Chicago Fire

20:30

Orlando City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,274h before kick-off

Chicago Fire win

53.7%

model 55.0%

Draw

23.1%

model 21.4%

Orlando City win

23.1%

model 23.6%

542323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.4%
1-1 9.1%
2-0 6.9%
3-1 6.7%
2-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.3%	Under 2.5	31.7%
BTTS yes	66.2%	BTTS no	33.8%
Chicago Fire 1+	88.4%	Chicago Fire 2+	63.3%
Orlando City 1+	74.5%	Orlando City 2+	39.7%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

53/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Chicago Fire carry the stronger rating, 1579 Elo against 1491.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Chicago Fire have an estimated 53.7% win probability, against 23.1% for Orlando City and 23.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.15 for Chicago Fire and 1.37 for Orlando City.

Why Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire carry the stronger rating, 1579 Elo against 1491. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Orlando City can win

Nothing in the data singles out Orlando City.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Chicago Fire, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Orlando City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chicago Fire: 47% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Orlando City: 57% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Chicago Fire are the model's most likely outcome at 53.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.4%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	621819	2.58–1.42	2-1 9%	76%	70%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to win	62.2%	58.1%	45.4%	1.28×	1.72
Orlando City to win	19.4%	19.4%	29.9%	0.65×	5.16
Draw	18.4%	19.4%	24.9%	0.78×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire & both teams score	40.2%	40.0%	24.4%	1.64×	2.50
Chicago Fire & not both score	22.0%	21.9%	21.1%	1.04×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.3%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
Orlando City & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.54
Orlando City & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	12.3%	0.68×	11.94
Draw & not both score	2.1%	4.9%	5.8%	0.83×	20.60

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire & over 1.5	57.7%	55.0%	37.1%	1.48×	1.82
Chicago Fire & over 2.5	51.7%	48.7%	30.9%	1.57×	2.05
Chicago Fire & over 3.5	37.8%	34.9%	17.2%	2.03×	2.86
Chicago Fire & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	28.3%	0.77×	4.62
Orlando City & over 1.5	17.1%	18.0%	23.5%	0.77×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Orlando City & over 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Chicago Fire & under 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	14.5%	0.88×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	9.3%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.70
Draw & under 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	16.0%	0.49×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	9.3%	7.9%	8.9%	0.88×	12.70
Draw & under 3.5	9.1%	7.9%	16.0%	0.49×	12.70
Orlando City & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	11.2%	0.70×	12.70
Orlando City & under 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	18.8%	0.42×	12.69
Chicago Fire & under 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.92
Orlando City & under 2.5	4.1%	4.8%	9.7%	0.49×	20.92
Draw & under 1.5	2.1%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.94
Orlando City & under 1.5	2.3%	4.8%	6.5%	0.73×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (1UP)	77.4%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Orlando City (1UP)	42.6%	39.1%	—	—	2.56

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (2UP)	62.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Orlando City (2UP)	19.4%	17.7%	—	—	5.64

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to win 2nd half	51.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
2nd half drawn	26.7%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Orlando City to win 2nd half	21.7%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (+0.5)	80.6%	82.4%	70.1%	1.18×	1.21
Orlando City (+2.5)	76.1%	78.4%	89.5%	0.88×	1.28
Chicago Fire (-0.5)	62.2%	62.9%	45.4%	1.39×	1.59
Orlando City (+1.5)	58.2%	57.0%	76.7%	0.74×	1.75
Chicago Fire (-1.5)	41.8%	43.0%	23.3%	1.85×	2.33
Orlando City (+0.5)	37.8%	37.1%	54.6%	0.68×	2.69
Chicago Fire (-2.5)	23.9%	21.6%	10.5%	2.05×	4.64
Orlando City (-0.5)	19.4%	17.6%	29.9%	0.59×	5.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to concede	92.4%	91.8%	82.0%	1.12×	1.09
Orlando City clean sheet	7.6%	8.2%	18.0%	0.46×	12.18

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to concede in 1st half	67.1%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Orlando City clean sheet in 1st half	32.9%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City under 6.5 corners	85.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Orlando City under 5.5 corners	75.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Orlando City over 2.5 corners	71.0%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Orlando City under 4.5 corners	62.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Orlando City over 3.5 corners	53.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Orlando City under 3.5 corners	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Orlando City over 4.5 corners	37.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Orlando City under 2.5 corners	29.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Orlando City over 5.5 corners	24.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
Orlando City over 6.5 corners	14.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.74

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City under 3.5 goals	94.4%	92.4%	93.9%	0.98×	1.08
Orlando City under 2.5 goals	82.8%	81.4%	83.3%	0.98×	1.23
Orlando City over 0.5 goals	75.9%	76.2%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
Orlando City under 1.5 goals	58.4%	59.6%	61.3%	0.97×	1.68
Orlando City over 1.5 goals	41.6%	40.4%	38.7%	1.04×	2.47
Orlando City under 0.5 goals	24.1%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Orlando City over 2.5 goals	17.2%	18.6%	16.7%	1.11×	5.39
Orlando City over 3.5 goals	5.6%	7.6%	6.1%	1.26×	13.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City under 1.5 in 1st half	88.8%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Orlando City under 0.5 in 1st half	56.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Orlando City over 0.5 in 1st half	43.4%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Orlando City over 1.5 in 1st half	11.2%	10.5%	—	—	9.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (away no bet)	77.1%	73.6%	64.6%	1.14×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.9%	26.4%	35.4%	0.74×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City even goals	52.9%	52.8%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Orlando City odd goals	47.1%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	66.2%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Both halves over 1.5 goals	33.8%	28.2%	—	—	3.55

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.9%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.1%	22.3%	—	—	4.48

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	76.5%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Chicago Fire to score 2+ in a row	62.7%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	38.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Chicago Fire to score 3+ in a row	32.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Orlando City to score 2+ in a row	27.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Orlando City to score 3+ in a row	7.3%	5.6%	—	—	17.76

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire corners (+3.5)	92.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chicago Fire corners (+2.5)	87.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Chicago Fire corners (+1.5)	81.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Orlando City corners (+3.5)	67.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Orlando City corners (+2.5)	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Chicago Fire corners (-1.5)	52.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Orlando City corners (+1.5)	47.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Chicago Fire corners (-2.5)	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Chicago Fire corners (-3.5)	32.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Orlando City corners (-1.5)	18.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Orlando City corners (-2.5)	12.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Orlando City corners (-3.5)	7.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	31.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.2%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.2%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	40.8%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	31.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	28.8%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	13.3%	11.5%	4.7%	2.44×	8.73
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.47
1-1	7.0%	7.4%	10.3%	0.72×	13.47
3-1	7.4%	7.4%	4.9%	1.51×	13.47
2-0	6.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.18×	13.47
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.47
3-0	5.2%	7.4%	4.1%	1.80×	13.47
3-2	5.3%	7.4%	3.6%	2.09×	13.47
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.50
4-1	4.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.50
0-0	2.1%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.51
0-1	2.3%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.51
0-2	1.8%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.51
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.52
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.52
1-0	4.4%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.50
1-3	2.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.51
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.52
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.51
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.7%	0.99×	58.52
3-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.51
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.49×	58.52
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.50
4-2	3.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.50
4-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.51
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.73×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire leading at HT (DNB)	72.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Orlando City leading at HT (DNB)	27.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire or Orlando City (12)	81.6%	80.6%	75.1%	1.07×	1.24
Chicago Fire or draw (1X)	80.6%	80.6%	70.1%	1.15×	1.24
Orlando City or draw (X2)	37.8%	41.9%	54.6%	0.77×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire or draw at HT	81.2%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Chicago Fire or Orlando City at HT	67.5%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Orlando City or draw at HT	51.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire or draw (1UP)	80.6%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Orlando City or draw (1UP)	42.6%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire or draw in 2nd half	78.3%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Chicago Fire or Orlando City in 2nd half	73.3%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Orlando City or draw in 2nd half	48.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	50.2%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Neither half drawn	49.8%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (DNB)	76.2%	74.5%	60.3%	1.24×	1.34
Orlando City (DNB)	23.8%	25.5%	39.7%	0.64×	3.93

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to score first	63.1%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Orlando City to score first	34.8%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
No goal scored	2.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	70.5%	62.2%	61.1%	1.02×	1.61
Not both teams to score	29.5%	37.8%	38.9%	0.97×	2.65

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	63.5%	50.1%	50.9%	0.99×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	16.7%	21.7%	29.9%	0.73×	4.60
Not both score & over 2.5	12.8%	12.3%	9.2%	1.34×	8.12
Both score & under 2.5	7.0%	8.4%	10.3%	0.81×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	69.6%	71.1%	79.5%	0.89×	1.41
Both teams to score 2+	30.4%	28.9%	20.5%	1.41×	3.46

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	55.6%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Both teams to score in 2nd half	44.4%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	39.4%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Both score 2nd half only	31.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Both score 1st half only	16.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Both score in both halves	12.9%	10.6%	—	—	9.47

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	70.8%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	29.2%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.6%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
A half without a goal	26.4%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.7%	47.4%	33.1%	1.43×	2.11
2-3 goals	34.4%	30.8%	42.5%	0.72×	3.25
7+ goals	11.0%	16.9%	4.1%	4.10×	5.91
0-1 goals	8.8%	7.6%	20.5%	0.37×	13.13

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to score exactly 1	34.3%	33.9%	34.6%	0.98×	2.95
Orlando City to score exactly 2	24.4%	22.4%	22.1%	1.01×	4.46
Orlando City to score exactly 0	24.1%	22.4%	26.8%	0.84×	4.46
Orlando City to score 3+	17.2%	19.5%	16.7%	1.17×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to score 3+	47.7%	36.9%	25.2%	1.46×	2.71
Chicago Fire to score exactly 2	25.2%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Chicago Fire to score exactly 1	19.5%	18.9%	31.0%	0.61×	5.30
Chicago Fire to score exactly 0	7.6%	10.3%	18.0%	0.57×	9.72

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire leading at HT	48.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	32.5%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Orlando City leading at HT	18.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.36

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire -1: 1	41.8%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Chicago Fire -1: 2	37.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Chicago Fire -1: X	20.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (0:1)	41.8%	42.7%	23.3%	1.84×	2.34
Orlando City (0:1)	37.8%	37.3%	54.6%	0.68×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	20.3%	24.3%	22.2%	1.09×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:2)	58.2%	62.8%	76.7%	0.82×	1.59
Chicago Fire (0:2)	23.9%	20.4%	10.5%	1.94×	4.90
Draw (0:2)	17.9%	15.3%	12.8%	1.19×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:3)	76.1%	80.3%	89.5%	0.90×	1.25
Draw (0:3)	12.2%	10.0%	6.6%	1.51×	9.98
Chicago Fire (0:3)	11.7%	10.0%	4.0%	2.50×	9.99

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:4)	88.3%	92.0%	96.0%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.8%	4.6%	2.1%	2.25×	21.51
Chicago Fire (0:4)	4.9%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	83.03

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (1:0)	80.6%	81.4%	70.1%	1.16×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.1%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.81
Orlando City (1:0)	8.3%	6.9%	13.2%	0.53×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire (2:0)	91.7%	93.9%	86.8%	1.08×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.55
Orlando City (2:0)	2.9%	2.3%	4.6%	0.49×	44.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.1%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	20.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to concede	75.9%	75.9%	73.2%	1.04×	1.32
Chicago Fire clean sheet	24.1%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire clean sheet in 1st half	56.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Chicago Fire to concede in 1st half	43.4%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire over 2.5 corners	87.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Chicago Fire over 3.5 corners	76.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Chicago Fire over 4.5 corners	63.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Chicago Fire under 6.5 corners	62.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Chicago Fire over 5.5 corners	50.3%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Chicago Fire under 5.5 corners	49.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Chicago Fire over 6.5 corners	37.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Chicago Fire under 4.5 corners	36.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Chicago Fire under 3.5 corners	23.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Chicago Fire under 2.5 corners	12.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire over 0.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	82.0%	1.12×	1.08
Chicago Fire under 3.5 goals	74.0%	74.2%	90.6%	0.82×	1.35
Chicago Fire over 1.5 goals	72.9%	74.2%	51.1%	1.45×	1.35
Chicago Fire under 2.5 goals	52.3%	53.2%	74.8%	0.71×	1.88
Chicago Fire over 2.5 goals	47.7%	46.8%	25.2%	1.86×	2.14
Chicago Fire under 1.5 goals	27.1%	25.8%	48.9%	0.53×	3.88
Chicago Fire over 3.5 goals	26.0%	25.8%	9.4%	2.74×	3.88
Chicago Fire under 0.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	18.0%	0.43×	12.92

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire under 1.5 in 1st half	69.5%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Chicago Fire over 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Chicago Fire under 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Chicago Fire over 1.5 in 1st half	30.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.24

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (home no bet)	51.3%	51.6%	54.6%	0.94×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	48.7%	48.4%	45.4%	1.07×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire even goals	50.3%	50.6%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Chicago Fire odd goals	49.7%	49.4%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	20.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-0	18.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.32
Any other HT score	12.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	11.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	11.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-1	10.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 2-1	6.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.82
HT 0-2	3.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.84
HT 2-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire at HT / Chicago Fire at FT	41.4%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Draw at HT / Chicago Fire at FT	16.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Orlando City at HT / Orlando City at FT	10.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.53
Draw at HT / Orlando City at FT	6.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Chicago Fire at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Orlando City at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Orlando City at HT / Chicago Fire at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Chicago Fire at HT / Orlando City at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to score last	63.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Orlando City to score last	34.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goal scored	2.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.51

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Chicago Fire to lead by 1 at any time	77.4%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	66.1%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Chicago Fire to lead by 2 at any time	51.3%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Orlando City to lead by 1 at any time	42.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	33.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
Chicago Fire to lead by 3 at any time	28.8%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Orlando City to lead by 2 at any time	15.6%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Orlando City to lead by 3 at any time	4.8%	1.6%	—	—	61.61

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire most corners	63.3%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Orlando City most corners	27.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	9.7%	8.5%	—	—	11.79

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.1%	83.5%	75.5%	1.11×	1.20
1-5 goals	76.4%	78.6%	83.2%	0.95×	1.27
2-5 goals	69.7%	69.0%	68.5%	1.01×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.2%	69.0%	55.9%	1.23×	1.45
1-4 goals	60.7%	63.4%	73.1%	0.87×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	48.9%	1.09×	1.88
2-4 goals	54.0%	53.2%	58.4%	0.91×	1.88
4-6 goals	45.7%	48.7%	33.1%	1.47×	2.06
1-3 goals	41.1%	43.6%	57.2%	0.76×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.1%	39.2%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.2%	39.2%	26.1%	1.50×	2.55
2-3 goals	34.4%	35.4%	42.5%	0.83×	2.83
5-6 goals	26.1%	30.2%	17.2%	1.76×	3.31
1-2 goals	21.6%	24.5%	34.4%	0.71×	4.09
7+ goals	11.0%	14.9%	4.1%	3.60×	6.73

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire never behind	55.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Orlando City never behind	20.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.4%	50.8%	50.2%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.6%	49.2%	49.8%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.9%	95.5%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	79.5%	1.16×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	78.5%	77.4%	88.9%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	76.3%	77.4%	59.9%	1.29×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	62.8%	61.7%	78.8%	0.78×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	56.7%	58.8%	37.1%	1.58×	1.70
Under 3.5 goals	43.3%	41.2%	62.9%	0.65×	2.43
Over 4.5 goals	37.2%	38.3%	21.2%	1.81×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	23.7%	22.6%	40.1%	0.56×	4.42
Over 5.5 goals	21.5%	22.6%	11.1%	2.04×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	20.5%	0.38×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	2.1%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.6%	86.8%	74.5%	1.16×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	87.7%	86.7%	95.6%	0.91×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	74.5%	72.6%	87.6%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.5%	72.6%	48.1%	1.51×	1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	53.8%	51.8%	74.8%	0.69×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	46.2%	48.2%	25.2%	1.91×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.5%	27.4%	51.9%	0.53×	3.65
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	25.5%	27.4%	12.4%	2.22×	3.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	12.3%	13.3%	4.4%	2.99×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.4%	13.2%	25.5%	0.52×	7.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	76.3%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Over 1.5 in 1st half	50.1%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Under 1.5 in 1st half	49.9%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Over 2.5 in 1st half	23.7%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.31

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.1%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.6%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	58.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	41.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.4%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.9%	11.2%	—	—	8.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City not to score in both halves	75.1%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Chicago Fire to score in both halves	51.7%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Chicago Fire not to score in both halves	48.3%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Orlando City to score in both halves	24.9%	21.8%	—	—	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	70.5%	66.0%	61.1%	1.08×	1.52
Only Chicago Fire scores	22.0%	22.3%	21.1%	1.06×	4.48
Only Orlando City scores	5.5%	7.2%	12.3%	0.59×	13.93
Neither team scores	2.1%	4.6%	5.8%	0.78×	21.87

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	21.5%	22.6%	11.1%	2.04×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	19.5%	17.4%	22.9%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.4%	16.0%	1.09×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	15.7%	17.4%	10.2%	1.71×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	14.9%	12.1%	19.7%	0.61×	8.28
Exactly 1 goals	6.7%	7.6%	14.8%	0.52×	13.10
Exactly 0 goals	2.1%	4.4%	5.8%	0.75×	22.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.6%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	22.5%	23.1%	—	—	4.34
No goals in 2nd half	9.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City not to win both halves	95.9%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Chicago Fire not to win both halves	74.8%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Chicago Fire to win both halves	25.2%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Orlando City to win both halves	4.1%	2.8%	—	—	35.32

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire to win either half	75.1%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Orlando City to win neither half	63.6%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Orlando City to win either half	36.4%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Chicago Fire to win neither half	24.9%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City not to win to nil	94.5%	92.1%	87.7%	1.05×	1.09
Chicago Fire not to win to nil	78.0%	78.0%	78.9%	0.99×	1.28
Chicago Fire to win to nil	22.0%	22.0%	21.1%	1.04×	4.55
Orlando City to win to nil	5.5%	7.9%	12.3%	0.65×	12.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chicago Fire by 3+	23.9%	24.2%	10.5%	2.29×	4.14
Chicago Fire by 1	20.3%	24.1%	22.2%	1.09×	4.14
Draw	18.4%	17.0%	24.9%	0.68×	5.90
Chicago Fire by 2	17.9%	17.0%	12.8%	1.32×	5.90
Orlando City by 1	11.1%	11.8%	16.8%	0.70×	8.47
Orlando City by 2	5.4%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.81
Orlando City by 3+	2.9%	2.7%	4.6%	0.59×	37.05