Cienciano del Cusco v UTC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627
PER-Liga 1
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (999 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-0 10.7%
- 2-1 9.7%
- 1-0 9.5%
- 1-1 8.4%
- 3-0 8.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 61.9% | Under 2.5 | 38.1% |
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | BTTS no | 46.4% |
| Cienciano del Cusco 1+ | 89.8% | Cienciano del Cusco 2+ | 66.4% |
| UTC 1+ | 59.9% | UTC 2+ | 23.3% |
Expected goals 2.28 – 0.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Cienciano del Cusco carry the stronger rating, 1502 Elo against 1335.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Cienciano del Cusco have an estimated 67.7% win probability, against 19.1% for the draw and 13.3% for UTC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.28 for Cienciano del Cusco and 0.91 for UTC.
Why Cienciano del Cusco
Cienciano del Cusco carry the stronger rating, 1502 Elo against 1335.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why UTC can win
Nothing in the data singles out UTC.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Cienciano del Cusco, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for UTC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Cienciano del Cusco: 55% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. UTC: 49% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cienciano del Cusco's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Cienciano del Cusco are the model's most likely outcome at 67.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.38–0.92 | 2-0 11% | 64% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.