Cincinnati v DC United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000103 · 2627
FIFA:2000000103 results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 10.1%
- 2-1 9.9%
- 1-0 9.8%
- 2-0 9.6%
- 3-1 6.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | Under 2.5 | 42.2% |
| BTTS yes | 55.5% | BTTS no | 44.5% |
| Cincinnati 1+ | 86.1% | Cincinnati 2+ | 58.6% |
| DC United 1+ | 64.5% | DC United 2+ | 27.7% |
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Cincinnati carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1500.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- DC United have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Cincinnati have an estimated 59.1% win probability, against 21.5% for the draw and 19.4% for DC United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.97 for Cincinnati and 1.03 for DC United.
Why Cincinnati
Cincinnati carry the stronger rating, 1554 Elo against 1500.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.5%.
Why DC United can win
Away from home DC United average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Cincinnati's 7.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Cincinnati, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for DC United, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Cincinnati: 57% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. DC United: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Cincinnati are the model's most likely outcome at 59.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.11–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.