Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Cincinnati

18:00 UTC

Philadelphia Union

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 151h before kick-off

Cincinnati win

38.4%

model 37.3%

Draw

23.2%

model 23.1%

Philadelphia Union win

38.5%

model 39.5%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.6%
1-2 8.2%
2-1 7.9%
2-2 7.1%
1-3 4.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.5%	Under 2.5	31.5%
BTTS yes	69.2%	BTTS no	30.8%
Cincinnati 1+	82.4%	Cincinnati 2+	51.9%
Philadelphia Union 1+	83.4%	Philadelphia Union 2+	53.5%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

60/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 56%

62.1% fair odds 1.61

moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Philadelphia Union carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1529.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Philadelphia Union have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.4% for Cincinnati and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.74 for Cincinnati and 1.79 for Philadelphia Union.

Why Cincinnati

Nothing in the data singles out Cincinnati.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.74 to 1.79. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Philadelphia Union can win

Philadelphia Union carry the stronger rating, 1557 Elo against 1529. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cincinnati, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Philadelphia Union, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cincinnati: 51% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Philadelphia Union: 49% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Philadelphia Union are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 60/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372340	1.74–1.79	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382241	1.95–2.02	1-1 8%	76%	75%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win	40.5%	42.9%	30.0%	1.43×	2.33
Cincinnati to win	37.9%	36.4%	45.3%	0.80×	2.75
Draw	21.6%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union & both teams score	28.6%	25.2%	18.0%	1.40×	3.97
Cincinnati & both teams score	26.9%	25.2%	24.4%	1.03×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Philadelphia Union & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	12.1%	1.10×	7.54
Cincinnati & not both score	11.0%	13.3%	21.1%	0.63×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.3%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union & over 1.5	37.1%	34.9%	23.7%	1.47×	2.87
Cincinnati & over 1.5	34.6%	30.8%	37.2%	0.83×	3.25
Philadelphia Union & over 2.5	33.2%	30.8%	20.5%	1.50×	3.25
Cincinnati & over 2.5	31.0%	30.7%	31.0%	0.99×	3.25
Philadelphia Union & over 3.5	23.1%	21.6%	11.3%	1.92×	4.63
Cincinnati & over 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Cincinnati & under 3.5	16.5%	18.0%	28.4%	0.63×	5.56
Philadelphia Union & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & over 2.5	11.5%	12.8%	8.9%	1.44×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	8.9%	1.44×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	16.0%	0.80×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.1%	12.8%	16.0%	0.80×	7.79
Philadelphia Union & under 2.5	7.3%	7.9%	9.6%	0.83×	12.63
Cincinnati & under 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.63
Cincinnati & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	8.2%	0.58×	20.82
Philadelphia Union & under 1.5	3.4%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.3%	4.8%	5.8%	0.84×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (1UP)	62.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Cincinnati (1UP)	60.0%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2UP)	40.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Cincinnati (2UP)	37.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win 2nd half	38.2%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Cincinnati to win 2nd half	33.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
2nd half drawn	28.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.2%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.9%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.8%	24.7%	—	—	4.06

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.5%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Cincinnati over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Cincinnati under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Cincinnati over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.5%	29.1%	—	—	3.43

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (+2.5)	90.7%	92.1%	89.4%	1.03×	1.09
Philadelphia Union (+1.5)	79.3%	78.5%	76.8%	1.02×	1.27
Philadelphia Union (+0.5)	62.1%	62.9%	54.7%	1.15×	1.59
Cincinnati (+0.5)	59.5%	57.0%	70.0%	0.81×	1.75
Philadelphia Union (-0.5)	40.5%	43.0%	30.0%	1.43×	2.33
Cincinnati (-0.5)	37.9%	37.1%	45.3%	0.82×	2.70
Cincinnati (-1.5)	20.7%	21.5%	23.2%	0.93×	4.65
Cincinnati (-2.5)	9.3%	7.9%	10.6%	0.74×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to concede	85.8%	86.2%	82.3%	1.05×	1.16
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	14.2%	13.8%	17.7%	0.78×	7.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to concede in 1st half	56.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Philadelphia Union clean sheet in 1st half	43.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to concede in 2nd half	67.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Philadelphia Union clean sheet in 2nd half	32.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 2.5 corners	87.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Philadelphia Union over 3.5 corners	76.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Philadelphia Union under 6.5 corners	63.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Philadelphia Union over 4.5 corners	62.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Philadelphia Union under 5.5 corners	50.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Philadelphia Union over 5.5 corners	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Philadelphia Union under 4.5 corners	37.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Philadelphia Union over 6.5 corners	36.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Philadelphia Union under 3.5 corners	24.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Philadelphia Union under 2.5 corners	12.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 goals	86.7%	87.8%	73.3%	1.20×	1.14
Philadelphia Union under 3.5 goals	85.4%	87.8%	94.0%	0.93×	1.14
Philadelphia Union under 2.5 goals	67.2%	68.0%	83.3%	0.82×	1.47
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 goals	59.9%	59.5%	38.8%	1.53×	1.68
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 goals	40.1%	40.5%	61.2%	0.66×	2.47
Philadelphia Union over 2.5 goals	32.8%	32.0%	16.7%	1.92×	3.13
Philadelphia Union over 3.5 goals	14.6%	12.2%	6.0%	2.04×	8.19
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 goals	13.3%	12.2%	26.7%	0.46×	8.20

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union under 1.5 in 1st half	80.6%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Philadelphia Union over 0.5 in 1st half	55.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Philadelphia Union under 0.5 in 1st half	44.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Philadelphia Union over 1.5 in 1st half	19.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union scores more in 2nd half	45.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Philadelphia Union scores equally in both	29.8%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Philadelphia Union scores more in 1st half	24.6%	21.9%	—	—	4.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (away no bet)	63.7%	62.0%	64.6%	0.96×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.3%	38.0%	35.4%	1.08×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union even goals	50.9%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Philadelphia Union odd goals	49.1%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	67.0%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Both halves over 1.5 goals	33.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.14

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.6%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.4%	21.2%	—	—	4.73

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	74.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Philadelphia Union to score 2+ in a row	46.3%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Cincinnati to score 2+ in a row	44.1%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row	33.7%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Philadelphia Union to score 3+ in a row	18.3%	16.2%	—	—	6.16
Cincinnati to score 3+ in a row	16.8%	16.2%	—	—	6.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union corners (+3.5)	91.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Philadelphia Union corners (+2.5)	87.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Philadelphia Union corners (+1.5)	80.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Cincinnati corners (+3.5)	68.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Cincinnati corners (+2.5)	59.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Philadelphia Union corners (-1.5)	51.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Cincinnati corners (+1.5)	48.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Philadelphia Union corners (-2.5)	41.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Philadelphia Union corners (-3.5)	31.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Cincinnati corners (-1.5)	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Cincinnati corners (-2.5)	13.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Cincinnati corners (-3.5)	8.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	39.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	31.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	68.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	60.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	39.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	31.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	29.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	23.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	10.0%	7.4%	4.7%	1.56×	13.51
1-1	7.8%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.51
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
2-1	7.3%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.51
2-2	7.3%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
1-3	5.1%	7.4%	3.4%	2.19×	13.51
2-3	4.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.29
3-2	4.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.29
0-0	2.3%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.31
0-1	3.4%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.30
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.30
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.31
1-0	3.3%	1.7%	8.2%	0.21×	58.30
1-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.30
2-0	3.6%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.30
2-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.31
3-1	4.7%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.29
3-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
3-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.54×	58.31
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.31
4-1	2.3%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.31
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.31
4-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.31
4-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.80×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (2nd half DNB)	53.4%	53.6%	—	—	1.87
Cincinnati (2nd half DNB)	46.6%	46.4%	—	—	2.16

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati leading at HT (DNB)	51.4%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Philadelphia Union leading at HT (DNB)	48.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati or Philadelphia Union (12)	78.4%	75.5%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Philadelphia Union or draw (X2)	62.1%	63.6%	54.7%	1.16×	1.57
Cincinnati or draw (1X)	59.5%	57.1%	70.0%	0.82×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati or draw at HT	68.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Philadelphia Union or draw at HT	66.5%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Cincinnati or Philadelphia Union at HT	65.1%	67.0%	—	—	1.49

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union or draw (1UP)	62.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Cincinnati or draw (1UP)	60.0%	71.4%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati or Philadelphia Union in 2nd half	71.6%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Philadelphia Union or draw in 2nd half	66.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Cincinnati or draw in 2nd half	61.8%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	52.9%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	47.1%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (DNB)	51.7%	50.9%	39.8%	1.28×	1.97
Cincinnati (DNB)	48.3%	49.1%	60.2%	0.82×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score first	49.7%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Cincinnati to score first	48.0%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
No goal scored	2.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.8%	62.6%	61.3%	1.02×	1.60
Not both teams to score	25.2%	37.4%	38.7%	0.97×	2.67

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	66.9%	57.0%	51.1%	1.12×	1.76
Not both score & under 2.5	16.5%	21.5%	29.5%	0.73×	4.64
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	9.2%	0.90×	12.07
Both score & under 2.5	7.8%	8.3%	10.4%	0.80×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	65.3%	70.8%	79.5%	0.89×	1.41
Both teams to score 2+	34.7%	29.2%	20.5%	1.42×	3.43

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	52.8%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Both teams to score in 2nd half	47.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	36.1%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
Both score 2nd half only	32.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
Both score 1st half only	16.7%	15.0%	—	—	6.66
Both score in both halves	14.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.24

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	68.5%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Both teams to score by HT	31.5%	28.2%	—	—	3.54

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	73.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
A half without a goal	27.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.3%	47.2%	33.0%	1.43×	2.12
2-3 goals	35.0%	30.8%	43.0%	0.72×	3.25
7+ goals	10.7%	16.9%	4.1%	4.17×	5.90
0-1 goals	9.0%	7.6%	20.2%	0.38×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score 3+	32.8%	33.8%	16.7%	2.03×	2.96
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.4%	22.2%	1.23×	3.65
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 1	26.8%	27.4%	34.6%	0.79×	3.65
Philadelphia Union to score exactly 0	13.3%	12.9%	26.7%	0.48×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to score 3+	31.0%	32.6%	25.0%	1.30×	3.07
Cincinnati to score exactly 1	27.7%	26.6%	31.1%	0.85×	3.77
Cincinnati to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
Cincinnati to score exactly 0	14.2%	14.3%	17.7%	0.81×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	34.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Cincinnati leading at HT	33.5%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Philadelphia Union leading at HT	31.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union -1: 1	59.5%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Philadelphia Union -1: 2	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Philadelphia Union -1: X	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (0:1)	62.1%	61.4%	54.7%	1.12×	1.63
Cincinnati (0:1)	20.7%	24.2%	23.2%	1.04×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	17.2%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (0:2)	79.3%	79.4%	76.8%	1.03×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	11.4%	11.0%	12.7%	0.86×	9.11
Cincinnati (0:2)	9.3%	7.7%	10.6%	0.72×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (0:3)	90.7%	92.7%	89.4%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.8%	5.8%	6.7%	0.87×	17.25
Cincinnati (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	4.1%	0.59×	42.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (0:4)	96.5%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.4%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	81.90
Cincinnati (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (1:0)	59.5%	58.4%	70.0%	0.83×	1.71
Philadelphia Union (1:0)	22.7%	21.7%	13.0%	1.67×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	17.8%	17.1%	17.1%	1.00×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati (2:0)	77.3%	80.5%	87.0%	0.92×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.2%	10.3%	8.6%	1.20×	9.73
Philadelphia Union (2:0)	10.5%	10.3%	4.5%	2.28×	9.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	52.7%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	20.4%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to concede	86.7%	85.5%	73.3%	1.17×	1.17
Cincinnati clean sheet	13.3%	14.5%	26.7%	0.54×	6.90

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to concede in 1st half	55.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Cincinnati clean sheet in 1st half	44.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati to concede in 2nd half	70.2%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Cincinnati clean sheet in 2nd half	29.8%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 6.5 corners	84.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Cincinnati under 5.5 corners	75.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Cincinnati over 2.5 corners	71.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Cincinnati under 4.5 corners	62.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Cincinnati over 3.5 corners	54.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Cincinnati under 3.5 corners	45.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Cincinnati over 4.5 corners	38.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Cincinnati under 2.5 corners	28.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Cincinnati over 5.5 corners	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Cincinnati over 6.5 corners	15.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 3.5 goals	86.6%	87.3%	90.6%	0.96×	1.15
Cincinnati over 0.5 goals	85.8%	87.2%	82.3%	1.06×	1.15
Cincinnati under 2.5 goals	69.0%	68.0%	75.0%	0.91×	1.47
Cincinnati over 1.5 goals	58.0%	58.6%	51.3%	1.14×	1.71
Cincinnati under 1.5 goals	42.0%	41.4%	48.7%	0.85×	2.42
Cincinnati over 2.5 goals	31.0%	32.0%	25.0%	1.28×	3.12
Cincinnati under 0.5 goals	14.2%	12.8%	17.7%	0.72×	7.84
Cincinnati over 3.5 goals	13.4%	12.7%	9.4%	1.36×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati under 1.5 in 1st half	79.5%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Cincinnati over 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Cincinnati under 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Cincinnati over 1.5 in 1st half	20.5%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati scores more in 2nd half	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Cincinnati scores equally in both	30.9%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
Cincinnati scores more in 1st half	27.3%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union (home no bet)	65.3%	64.0%	54.7%	1.17×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	34.7%	36.0%	45.3%	0.79×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati even goals	51.0%	50.7%	51.0%	1.00×	1.97
Cincinnati odd goals	49.0%	49.3%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	19.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-0	16.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.41
HT 0-1	15.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.42
HT 1-1	13.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
Any other HT score	9.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.42
HT 2-0	6.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 0-2	6.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 2-1	5.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 1-2	5.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 2-2	2.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.06

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati at HT / Cincinnati at FT	23.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Philadelphia Union at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	23.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	13.1%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Cincinnati at FT	11.4%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.4%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Cincinnati at HT / Draw at FT	6.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.47
Philadelphia Union at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Cincinnati at HT / Philadelphia Union at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Philadelphia Union at HT / Cincinnati at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to score last	49.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Cincinnati to score last	48.0%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
No goal scored	2.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.7%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	62.3%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Philadelphia Union to lead by 1 at any time	62.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Cincinnati to lead by 1 at any time	60.0%	61.2%	—	—	1.64
Philadelphia Union to lead by 2 at any time	32.7%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Cincinnati to lead by 2 at any time	30.5%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.5%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Philadelphia Union to lead by 3 at any time	14.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.48
Cincinnati to lead by 3 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.50

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union most corners	62.2%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Cincinnati most corners	28.0%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	9.9%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.3%	83.4%	75.9%	1.10×	1.20
1-5 goals	76.8%	78.7%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-5 goals	70.0%	72.3%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
3-6 goals	65.0%	68.8%	56.3%	1.22×	1.45
1-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	73.2%	0.87×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.8%	53.2%	49.4%	1.08×	1.88
2-4 goals	54.5%	53.2%	58.7%	0.91×	1.88
4-6 goals	45.3%	48.5%	33.0%	1.47×	2.06
1-3 goals	41.7%	43.6%	57.4%	0.76×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.1%	39.2%	26.2%	1.50×	2.55
2-3 goals	35.0%	35.2%	43.0%	0.82×	2.84
5-6 goals	25.8%	30.2%	17.2%	1.75×	3.31
1-2 goals	22.0%	24.5%	34.2%	0.72×	4.09
7+ goals	10.7%	14.8%	4.1%	3.65×	6.76

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union never behind	37.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Cincinnati never behind	35.6%	44.0%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.2%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.8%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	48.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	94.3%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	79.8%	1.16×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	79.0%	77.3%	89.1%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	60.2%	1.28×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	63.5%	61.7%	78.8%	0.78×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	56.0%	58.6%	37.0%	1.58×	1.71
Under 3.5 goals	44.0%	41.4%	63.0%	0.66×	2.42
Over 4.5 goals	36.5%	38.3%	21.2%	1.80×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	39.8%	0.57×	4.40
Over 5.5 goals	21.0%	22.7%	10.9%	2.08×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	20.2%	0.38×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	5.8%	0.80×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.4%	86.8%	74.9%	1.16×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	88.1%	86.7%	95.6%	0.91×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	75.2%	75.9%	87.8%	0.86×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.7%	67.5%	48.2%	1.40×	1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	54.7%	51.9%	74.8%	0.69×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	45.3%	48.1%	25.2%	1.91×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.3%	32.5%	51.8%	0.63×	3.08
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	24.8%	24.1%	12.2%	1.98×	4.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	11.9%	13.3%	4.4%	3.04×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	10.6%	13.2%	25.1%	0.53×	7.55

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	80.6%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	77.2%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	51.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Over 1.5 in 1st half	49.0%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	22.8%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Under 0.5 in 1st half	19.4%	14.3%	—	—	6.98

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.5%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	44.8%	—	—	2.24
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.5%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati not to score in both halves	61.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Philadelphia Union not to score in both halves	61.1%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Philadelphia Union to score in both halves	38.9%	36.9%	—	—	2.71
Cincinnati to score in both halves	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	74.8%	66.3%	61.3%	1.08×	1.51
Only Philadelphia Union scores	11.9%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.07
Only Cincinnati scores	11.0%	11.0%	21.1%	0.52×	9.07
Neither team scores	2.3%	4.6%	5.8%	0.80×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	21.0%	22.6%	10.9%	2.06×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.7%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	19.5%	17.5%	15.9%	1.10×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	15.3%	17.5%	19.7%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	15.5%	17.5%	10.4%	1.68×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	6.7%	7.6%	14.5%	0.52×	13.15
Exactly 0 goals	2.3%	4.5%	5.8%	0.78×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	31.6%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
2 goals in 1st half	26.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
3+ goals in 1st half	22.8%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
No goals in 1st half	19.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.5%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
1 goal in 2nd half	22.5%	22.7%	—	—	4.42
No goals in 2nd half	9.9%	10.6%	—	—	9.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati not to win both halves	88.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Philadelphia Union not to win both halves	87.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Philadelphia Union to win both halves	12.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Cincinnati to win both halves	11.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.34

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Philadelphia Union to win either half	57.7%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Cincinnati to win either half	55.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Cincinnati to win neither half	44.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
Philadelphia Union to win neither half	42.3%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cincinnati not to win to nil	89.0%	88.1%	78.9%	1.12×	1.14
Philadelphia Union not to win to nil	88.1%	88.1%	87.9%	1.00×	1.14
Philadelphia Union to win to nil	11.9%	11.9%	12.1%	0.98×	8.42
Cincinnati to win to nil	11.0%	11.9%	21.1%	0.56×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.6%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Philadelphia Union by 1	17.8%	17.0%	17.1%	0.99×	5.87
Cincinnati by 1	17.2%	17.0%	22.2%	0.77×	5.87
Philadelphia Union by 2	12.2%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.51
Cincinnati by 2	11.4%	11.7%	12.7%	0.92×	8.51
Philadelphia Union by 3+	10.5%	11.7%	4.5%	2.60×	8.51
Cincinnati by 3+	9.3%	7.2%	10.6%	0.68×	13.90