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Cobresal v Colo Colo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 December 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Cobresal win
21.6%
model 21.3%
Draw
17.9%
model 16.5%
Colo Colo win
60.5%
model 62.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-2 9.4%
  2. 0-1 7.7%
  3. 0-2 7.4%
  4. 1-3 7.3%
  5. 1-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.569.6% Under 2.530.4%
BTTS yes63.6% BTTS no36.4%
Cobresal 1+72.0% Cobresal 2+36.4%
Colo Colo 1+90.2% Colo Colo 2+67.4%

Expected goals 1.27 – 2.32. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Colo Colo over 1.5 goals
Away goals O/U · usually 32%
68.1% fair odds 1.47
strong signal · 1155 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Colo Colo carry the stronger rating, 1692 Elo against 1417.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Colo Colo have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.6% for Cobresal and 17.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.27 for Cobresal and 2.32 for Colo Colo.

Why Cobresal

Nothing in the data singles out Cobresal.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.9%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Colo Colo can win

Colo Colo carry the stronger rating, 1692 Elo against 1417. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cobresal, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Colo Colo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cobresal: 41% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Colo Colo: 59% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Colo Colo are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.4%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.27–2.32 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.37–2.29 1-2 9% 71% 66%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to win 59.3% 54.0% 30.0% 1.80× 1.85
Cobresal to win 23.7% 24.5% 49.0% 0.50× 4.09
Draw 17.0% 19.4% 21.2% 0.91× 5.16
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo & both teams score 35.2% 33.3% 13.4% 2.48× 3.01
Colo Colo & not both score 24.1% 21.8% 16.8% 1.30× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 15.8% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Cobresal & both teams score 14.7% 13.3% 22.4% 0.59× 7.54
Cobresal & not both score 8.9% 8.3% 26.8% 0.31× 12.00
Draw & not both score 1.2% 4.9% 4.9% 1.00× 20.58
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo & over 1.5 52.1% 48.8% 20.0% 2.44× 2.05
Colo Colo & over 2.5 45.4% 45.0% 16.6% 2.71× 2.22
Colo Colo & over 3.5 31.0% 30.7% 6.8% 4.50× 3.25
Colo Colo & under 3.5 28.4% 26.1% 23.4% 1.11× 3.84
Cobresal & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 36.1% 0.50× 5.55
Cobresal & over 2.5 16.3% 18.0% 29.3% 0.62× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Cobresal & under 3.5 14.0% 12.8% 34.1% 0.38× 7.79
Colo Colo & under 2.5 14.0% 12.8% 13.7% 0.94× 7.79
Cobresal & over 3.5 9.7% 7.9% 15.1% 0.52× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 9.1% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Cobresal & under 2.5 7.3% 7.9% 20.0% 0.40× 12.63
Draw & under 2.5 7.9% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.63
Colo Colo & under 1.5 7.2% 7.9% 10.2% 0.77× 12.63
Cobresal & under 1.5 4.9% 4.8% 13.2% 0.36× 20.81
Draw & under 1.5 1.2% 4.8% 4.9% 0.98× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (1UP) 74.4% 75.4% — — 1.33
Cobresal (1UP) 44.9% 38.8% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (2UP) 59.3% 55.0% — — 1.82
Cobresal (2UP) 23.7% 23.9% — — 4.19
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to win 2nd half 51.3% 51.8% — — 1.93
2nd half drawn 26.9% 26.1% — — 3.84
Cobresal to win 2nd half 21.8% 24.3% — — 4.12
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.6% 75.7% — — 1.32
Colo Colo under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.2% 60.2% — — 1.66
Colo Colo over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.8% 39.8% — — 2.51
Colo Colo under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.4% 24.3% — — 4.12
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.5% 82.3% — — 1.22
Cobresal over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.3% 55.1% — — 1.82
Cobresal under 0.5 in 2nd half 45.7% 44.9% — — 2.23
Cobresal over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.5% 17.7% — — 5.66
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (+2.5) 96.8% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Colo Colo (+1.5) 90.6% 92.1% 76.8% 1.20× 1.09
Colo Colo (+0.5) 76.3% 78.5% 51.0% 1.54× 1.27
Colo Colo (-0.5) 59.3% 57.1% 30.0% 1.90× 1.75
Cobresal (+0.5) 40.7% 42.9% 70.0% 0.61× 2.33
Cobresal (-0.5) 23.7% 21.5% 49.0% 0.44× 4.65
Cobresal (-1.5) 9.4% 7.9% 23.2% 0.34× 12.68
Cobresal (-2.5) 3.2% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 27.13
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to concede 74.7% 76.7% 78.5% 0.98× 1.30
Colo Colo clean sheet 25.3% 23.3% 21.5% 1.09× 4.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo clean sheet in 1st half 55.4% 56.4% — — 1.77
Colo Colo to concede in 1st half 44.6% 43.6% — — 2.29
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to concede in 2nd half 54.3% 54.6% — — 1.83
Colo Colo clean sheet in 2nd half 45.7% 45.4% — — 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo over 2.5 corners 88.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Colo Colo over 3.5 corners 77.9% 76.1% — — 1.32
Colo Colo over 4.5 corners 65.1% 67.6% — — 1.48
Colo Colo under 6.5 corners 60.8% 61.7% — — 1.62
Colo Colo over 5.5 corners 51.7% 53.1% — — 1.88
Colo Colo under 5.5 corners 48.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Colo Colo over 6.5 corners 39.2% 38.3% — — 2.61
Colo Colo under 4.5 corners 34.9% 32.4% — — 3.09
Colo Colo under 3.5 corners 22.1% 24.0% — — 4.18
Colo Colo under 2.5 corners 11.5% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo over 0.5 goals 89.8% 87.8% 68.5% 1.28× 1.14
Colo Colo under 3.5 goals 80.2% 81.5% 97.1% 0.84× 1.23
Colo Colo over 1.5 goals 66.6% 68.0% 31.5% 2.16× 1.47
Colo Colo under 2.5 goals 60.0% 59.5% 88.3% 0.67× 1.68
Colo Colo over 2.5 goals 40.0% 40.5% 11.7% 3.46× 2.47
Colo Colo under 1.5 goals 33.4% 32.0% 68.5% 0.47× 3.13
Colo Colo over 3.5 goals 19.8% 18.5% 2.9% 6.32× 5.40
Colo Colo under 0.5 goals 10.2% 12.2% 31.5% 0.39× 8.21
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo under 1.5 in 1st half 76.7% 75.0% — — 1.33
Colo Colo over 0.5 in 1st half 59.9% 62.5% — — 1.60
Colo Colo under 0.5 in 1st half 40.1% 37.5% — — 2.67
Colo Colo over 1.5 in 1st half 23.3% 25.0% — — 4.00
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo scores more in 2nd half 47.4% 48.2% — — 2.08
Colo Colo scores equally in both 27.5% 26.5% — — 3.77
Colo Colo scores more in 1st half 25.0% 26.4% — — 3.79
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (away no bet) 58.2% 57.4% 69.8% 0.82× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.8% 42.6% 30.2% 1.41× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo even goals 50.5% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
Colo Colo odd goals 49.5% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 71.9% 77.1% — — 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 28.1% 22.9% — — 4.37
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 79.0% 72.3% — — 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 21.1% 27.7% — — 3.62
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 71.8% 71.7% — — 1.39
Colo Colo to score 2+ in a row 56.3% 54.9% — — 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 33.4% 28.9% — — 3.46
Cobresal to score 2+ in a row 27.1% 24.9% — — 4.01
Colo Colo to score 3+ in a row 26.9% 24.9% — — 4.01
Cobresal to score 3+ in a row 7.3% 5.5% — — 18.19
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo corners (+3.5) 89.3% 84.5% — — 1.18
Colo Colo corners (+2.5) 83.9% 79.8% — — 1.25
Colo Colo corners (+1.5) 76.7% 74.8% — — 1.34
Cobresal corners (+3.5) 71.1% 70.8% — — 1.41
Cobresal corners (+2.5) 62.0% 61.9% — — 1.62
Cobresal corners (+1.5) 52.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
Colo Colo corners (-1.5) 48.0% 47.6% — — 2.10
Colo Colo corners (-2.5) 38.0% 38.1% — — 2.62
Colo Colo corners (-3.5) 28.9% 29.2% — — 3.42
Cobresal corners (-1.5) 23.3% 25.2% — — 3.97
Cobresal corners (-2.5) 16.1% 20.2% — — 4.95
Cobresal corners (-3.5) 10.7% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 38.3% 34.0% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 32.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.3% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 76.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 70.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 67.6% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 61.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 57.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 52.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 47.7% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 42.3% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 38.3% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 32.4% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 29.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 23.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-2 9.2% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
Any other score 9.4% 7.4% 3.4% 2.17× 13.51
0-1 7.2% 7.4% 10.2% 0.72× 13.51
0-2 6.7% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.51
1-1 6.7% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
1-3 7.0% 7.4% 2.2% 3.37× 13.51
0-3 5.1% 7.4% 2.9% 2.53× 13.51
2-1 5.6% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
1-0 4.9% 1.7% 13.2% 0.13× 58.29
2-3 4.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.29
0-0 1.2% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.31
0-4 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.30
1-4 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.30
2-0 2.4% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.31
2-4 2.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.30
3-0 1.1% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.31
3-1 2.5% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.30
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.30
3-3 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
4-0 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
4-1 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (2nd half DNB) 70.1% 71.0% — — 1.41
Cobresal (2nd half DNB) 29.9% 29.0% — — 3.45
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo leading at HT (DNB) 64.6% 66.7% — — 1.50
Cobresal leading at HT (DNB) 35.4% 33.3% — — 3.01
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal or Colo Colo (12) 83.0% 80.6% 78.8% 1.02× 1.24
Colo Colo or draw (X2) 76.3% 75.5% 51.0% 1.48× 1.32
Cobresal or draw (1X) 40.7% 46.0% 70.0% 0.66× 2.17
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo or draw at HT 77.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Cobresal or Colo Colo at HT 64.6% 61.0% — — 1.64
Cobresal or draw at HT 58.3% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo or draw (1UP) 76.3% 83.5% — — 1.20
Cobresal or draw (1UP) 44.9% 53.0% — — 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo or draw in 2nd half 78.2% 75.7% — — 1.32
Cobresal or Colo Colo in 2nd half 73.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
Cobresal or draw in 2nd half 48.7% 48.2% — — 2.08
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 54.4% 50.4% — — 1.99
Neither half drawn 45.6% 49.6% — — 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (DNB) 71.5% 71.4% 38.0% 1.88× 1.40
Cobresal (DNB) 28.5% 28.6% 62.0% 0.46× 3.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to score first 61.7% 63.8% — — 1.57
Cobresal to score first 37.1% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 1.2% 4.3% — — 23.25
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 65.7% 58.4% 52.0% 1.12× 1.71
Not both teams to score 34.3% 41.6% 48.0% 0.87× 2.40
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 59.0% 47.5% 42.9% 1.11× 2.11
Not both score & under 2.5 22.5% 27.9% 38.0% 0.73× 3.59
Not both score & over 2.5 11.8% 12.4% 10.2% 1.21× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 6.7% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 73.4% 80.5% 84.6% 0.95× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 26.6% 19.5% 15.4% 1.27× 5.13
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.0% 65.9% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 40.0% 34.1% — — 2.93
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 44.3% 50.7% — — 1.97
Both score 2nd half only 29.2% 26.8% — — 3.73
Both score 1st half only 15.7% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 10.8% 10.7% — — 9.34
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 73.5% 79.9% — — 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 26.5% 20.1% — — 4.97
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 68.1% 65.5% — — 1.53
A half without a goal 31.9% 34.5% — — 2.90
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 41.9% 42.2% 26.8% 1.57× 2.37
2-3 goals 36.9% 35.0% 43.4% 0.81× 2.85
0-1 goals 13.4% 16.9% 27.8% 0.61× 5.90
7+ goals 7.8% 7.6% 2.4% 3.13× 13.11
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to score 3+ 40.0% 37.3% 11.7% 3.18× 2.68
Colo Colo to score exactly 2 26.6% 27.4% 20.0% 1.37× 3.64
Colo Colo to score exactly 1 23.2% 22.3% 37.3% 0.60× 4.49
Colo Colo to score exactly 0 10.2% 12.9% 31.5% 0.41× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to score exactly 1 34.8% 32.6% 31.7% 1.03× 3.07
Cobresal to score exactly 0 25.3% 26.6% 21.5% 1.24× 3.77
Cobresal to score exactly 2 23.9% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
Cobresal to score 3+ 16.0% 18.8% 21.0% 0.90× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo leading at HT 41.7% 42.5% — — 2.35
Draw at HT 35.4% 39.0% — — 2.56
Cobresal leading at HT 22.8% 20.4% — — 4.90
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo -1: 1 40.7% 42.8% — — 2.34
Colo Colo -1: 2 36.5% 37.4% — — 2.68
Colo Colo -1: X 22.8% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:1) 76.3% 73.7% 51.0% 1.45× 1.36
Draw (0:1) 14.2% 13.7% 26.1% 0.53× 7.29
Cobresal (0:1) 9.4% 9.3% 23.2% 0.40× 10.78
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:2) 90.6% 90.7% 76.8% 1.18× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 6.2% 7.7% 12.9% 0.59× 13.07
Cobresal (0:2) 3.2% 3.7% 10.5% 0.36× 26.71
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:3) 96.8% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.04
Cobresal (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (0:4) 99.1% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 4.1% 0.29× 81.89
Cobresal (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.95
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (1:0) 40.7% 43.3% 70.0% 0.62× 2.31
Colo Colo (1:0) 36.5% 37.5% 10.2% 3.66× 2.67
Draw (1:0) 22.8% 21.7% 20.0% 1.08× 4.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal (2:0) 63.5% 66.6% 89.8% 0.74× 1.50
Colo Colo (2:0) 19.3% 15.9% 4.1% 3.84× 6.28
Draw (2:0) 17.2% 15.9% 6.3% 2.50× 6.31
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 53.6% 50.3% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 27.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 18.7% 18.5% — — 5.40
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to concede 89.8% 85.8% 68.5% 1.25× 1.17
Cobresal clean sheet 10.2% 14.2% 31.5% 0.45× 7.02
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to concede in 1st half 59.9% 62.5% — — 1.60
Cobresal clean sheet in 1st half 40.1% 37.5% — — 2.67
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal to concede in 2nd half 74.6% 73.4% — — 1.36
Cobresal clean sheet in 2nd half 25.4% 26.6% — — 3.76
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 6.5 corners 78.4% 76.5% — — 1.31
Cobresal over 2.5 corners 78.1% 76.5% — — 1.31
Cobresal under 5.5 corners 67.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
Cobresal over 3.5 corners 62.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Cobresal under 4.5 corners 53.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Cobresal over 4.5 corners 46.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Cobresal under 3.5 corners 37.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Cobresal over 5.5 corners 32.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
Cobresal under 2.5 corners 21.9% 23.5% — — 4.26
Cobresal over 6.5 corners 21.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 3.5 goals 94.9% 92.2% 91.0% 1.01× 1.08
Cobresal under 2.5 goals 84.0% 82.2% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Cobresal over 0.5 goals 74.7% 74.2% 78.5% 0.95× 1.35
Cobresal under 1.5 goals 60.1% 63.6% 52.9% 1.20× 1.57
Cobresal over 1.5 goals 39.9% 36.4% 47.1% 0.77× 2.75
Cobresal under 0.5 goals 25.3% 25.8% 21.5% 1.20× 3.88
Cobresal over 2.5 goals 16.0% 17.8% 21.0% 0.85× 5.62
Cobresal over 3.5 goals 5.1% 7.8% 9.0% 0.86× 12.86
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal under 1.5 in 1st half 88.1% 90.1% — — 1.11
Cobresal under 0.5 in 1st half 55.4% 56.2% — — 1.78
Cobresal over 0.5 in 1st half 44.6% 43.8% — — 2.28
Cobresal over 1.5 in 1st half 11.9% 9.9% — — 10.11
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal scores equally in both 38.5% 38.1% — — 2.62
Cobresal scores more in 2nd half 36.6% 38.1% — — 2.63
Cobresal scores more in 1st half 25.0% 21.1% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo (home no bet) 77.7% 78.0% 58.6% 1.33× 1.28
Draw (home no bet) 22.3% 22.0% 41.4% 0.53× 4.55
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal even goals 53.2% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Cobresal odd goals 46.8% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 22.0% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-1 20.5% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 1-0 13.3% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 11.8% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 0-2 9.3% 6.9% — — 14.52
Any other HT score 8.6% 6.9% — — 14.53
HT 1-2 5.5% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-0 3.9% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 2-2 1.6% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo at HT / Colo Colo at FT 35.6% 41.1% — — 2.43
Draw at HT / Colo Colo at FT 19.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Cobresal at HT / Cobresal at FT 13.3% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Cobresal at FT 8.5% 6.1% — — 16.45
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.9% 6.1% — — 16.47
Cobresal at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.86
Cobresal at HT / Colo Colo at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.87
Colo Colo at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% — — 28.88
Colo Colo at HT / Cobresal at FT 1.9% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to score last 61.5% 62.0% — — 1.61
Cobresal to score last 37.2% 38.6% — — 2.59
No goal scored 1.2% 4.3% — — 23.25
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 98.8% 95.6% — — 1.05
Colo Colo to lead by 1 at any time 74.4% 74.2% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 61.2% 61.2% — — 1.63
Colo Colo to lead by 2 at any time 45.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
Cobresal to lead by 1 at any time 44.9% 39.3% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 28.6% 25.3% — — 3.95
Colo Colo to lead by 3 at any time 23.5% 19.5% — — 5.12
Cobresal to lead by 2 at any time 16.4% 14.8% — — 6.75
Cobresal to lead by 3 at any time 5.1% 6.6% — — 15.15
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo most corners 58.3% 55.6% — — 1.80
Cobresal most corners 31.9% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 9.8% 8.4% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 82.4% 83.4% 87.3% 0.96× 1.20
2-6 goals 78.9% 78.7% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
2-5 goals 70.3% 72.3% 64.4% 1.12× 1.38
1-4 goals 68.3% 68.8% 81.2% 0.85× 1.45
3-6 goals 63.0% 63.3% 50.7% 1.25× 1.58
2-4 goals 56.2% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.4% 53.2% 45.1% 1.18× 1.88
1-3 goals 49.1% 48.4% 66.3% 0.73× 2.06
4-6 goals 41.9% 43.6% 26.8% 1.63× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 39.0% 1.12× 2.29
2-3 goals 36.9% 39.2% 43.4% 0.90× 2.55
4-5 goals 33.3% 35.2% 21.2% 1.66× 2.84
1-2 goals 28.0% 30.2% 42.4% 0.71× 3.31
5-6 goals 22.7% 24.5% 12.0% 2.05× 4.09
7+ goals 7.8% 8.9% 2.4% 3.64× 11.26
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo never behind 53.8% 62.5% — — 1.60
Cobresal never behind 24.4% 25.3% — — 3.96
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 47.3% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 52.7% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.0% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 48.0% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half 50.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Even goals in 2nd half 49.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 98.8% 95.4% 95.1% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 86.6% 87.6% 72.2% 1.21× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 83.6% 82.3% 92.0% 0.90× 1.22
Over 2.5 goals 70.8% 72.5% 52.9% 1.37× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 69.5% 66.3% 85.9% 0.77× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 50.3% 52.5% 71.0% 0.74× 1.91
Over 3.5 goals 49.7% 47.5% 29.0% 1.64× 2.11
Over 4.5 goals 30.5% 33.7% 14.1% 2.38× 2.97
Under 2.5 goals 29.2% 27.5% 47.1% 0.58× 3.63
Over 5.5 goals 16.4% 17.7% 8.0% 2.20× 5.65
Under 1.5 goals 13.4% 12.4% 27.8% 0.45× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 1.2% 4.6% 4.9% 0.94× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 91.5% 92.4% 97.4% 0.95× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 84.1% 81.1% 65.6% 1.24× 1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 80.9% 81.1% 91.4% 0.89× 1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.0% 61.9% 38.1% 1.62× 1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 62.3% 61.9% 83.4% 0.74× 1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 37.7% 38.1% 16.6% 2.29× 2.63
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.0% 38.1% 61.9% 0.62× 2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 19.1% 18.9% 8.6% 2.21× 5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 15.9% 18.9% 34.4% 0.55× 5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 8.5% 7.6% 2.6% 2.94× 13.18
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 80.8% 85.6% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 78.0% 78.1% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 55.8% 64.6% — — 1.55
Over 1.5 in 1st half 44.2% 35.4% — — 2.82
Under 0.5 in 1st half 22.0% 21.9% — — 4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 19.2% 14.4% — — 6.95
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 88.9% 85.5% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 63.5% 61.5% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 62.9% 61.5% — — 1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 37.1% 38.5% — — 2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 36.5% 38.5% — — 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 11.1% 14.5% — — 6.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal not to score in both halves 75.8% 78.4% — — 1.28
Colo Colo not to score in both halves 55.3% 57.8% — — 1.73
Colo Colo to score in both halves 44.7% 42.2% — — 2.37
Cobresal to score in both halves 24.2% 21.6% — — 4.63
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 65.7% 59.7% 52.0% 1.15× 1.67
Only Colo Colo scores 24.1% 22.3% 16.8% 1.32× 4.49
Only Cobresal scores 8.9% 7.1% 26.8% 0.27× 13.99
Neither team scores 1.2% 4.6% 4.9% 0.95× 21.68
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.0% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 19.3% 17.5% 15.1% 1.15× 5.73
6 or more goals 16.4% 17.5% 8.0% 2.17× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 15.9% 17.5% 19.5% 0.89× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 14.1% 12.1% 6.3% 1.91× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 12.1% 12.1% 23.2% 0.52× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 1.2% 4.5% 4.9% 0.92× 22.38
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 33.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 24.9% 21.5% — — 4.65
No goals in 1st half 22.0% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 19.2% 15.7% — — 6.36
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 62.9% 58.9% — — 1.70
1 goal in 2nd half 25.9% 29.1% — — 3.44
No goals in 2nd half 11.1% 14.4% — — 6.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal not to win both halves 95.2% 97.2% — — 1.03
Colo Colo not to win both halves 78.9% 75.7% — — 1.32
Colo Colo to win both halves 21.1% 24.3% — — 4.12
Cobresal to win both halves 4.8% 2.8% — — 35.26
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo to win either half 71.9% 73.0% — — 1.37
Cobresal to win neither half 60.2% 64.9% — — 1.54
Cobresal to win either half 39.8% 35.1% — — 2.85
Colo Colo to win neither half 28.1% 27.0% — — 3.71
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cobresal not to win to nil 91.1% 92.1% 73.2% 1.26× 1.09
Colo Colo not to win to nil 75.9% 78.1% 83.2% 0.94× 1.28
Colo Colo to win to nil 24.1% 21.9% 16.8% 1.30× 4.57
Cobresal to win to nil 8.9% 7.9% 26.8% 0.30× 12.62
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colo Colo by 1 22.8% 24.1% 20.0% 1.21× 4.15
Colo Colo by 3+ 19.3% 17.1% 4.1% 4.11× 5.86
Colo Colo by 2 17.2% 17.0% 6.3% 2.69× 5.87
Draw 17.0% 17.0% 21.2% 0.80× 5.87
Cobresal by 1 14.2% 11.8% 26.1% 0.45× 8.50
Cobresal by 2 6.2% 7.2% 12.9% 0.56× 13.92
Cobresal by 3+ 3.2% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 36.87
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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