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Colorado Rapids v CF Montréal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Colorado Rapids win
58.6%
model 57.4%
Draw
22.2%
model 23.9%
CF Montréal win
19.2%
model 18.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (315 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.4%
  2. 1-0 11.3%
  3. 2-0 10.6%
  4. 2-1 9.8%
  5. 0-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.551.2% Under 2.548.8%
BTTS yes50.9% BTTS no49.1%
Colorado Rapids 1+83.4% Colorado Rapids 2+53.7%
CF Montréal 1+60.4% CF Montréal 2+23.7%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
61/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
Colorado Rapids (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
57.1% fair odds 1.75
moderate signal · 1040 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Colorado Rapids or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
83.7% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Colorado Rapids carry the stronger rating, 1476 Elo against 1402.
  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Colorado Rapids have an estimated 58.6% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 19.2% for CF Montréal. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.80 for Colorado Rapids and 0.93 for CF Montréal.

Why Colorado Rapids

Colorado Rapids carry the stronger rating, 1476 Elo against 1402. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why CF Montréal can win

Nothing in the data singles out CF Montréal.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Colorado Rapids, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for CF Montréal, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Colorado Rapids: 61% possession, 17.4 shots a match, 7.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. CF Montréal: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Colorado Rapids are the model's most likely outcome at 58.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 61/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.80–0.93 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.75–0.89 1-0 12% 49% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to win 57.4% 58.6% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Draw 23.9% 22.2% 24.9% 0.89× 4.51
CF Montréal to win 18.6% 19.2% 29.9% 0.64× 5.20
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids & not both score 32.6% 32.8% 21.1% 1.55× 3.05
Colorado Rapids & both teams score 24.9% 22.7% 24.4% 0.93× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 16.9% 17.7% 19.1% 0.93× 5.64
CF Montréal & not both score 9.5% 7.3% 12.3% 0.60× 13.63
CF Montréal & both teams score 9.1% 7.3% 17.8% 0.41× 13.64
Draw & not both score 7.0% 7.3% 5.8% 1.25× 13.68
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids & over 1.5 46.1% 46.6% 37.1% 1.26× 2.14
Colorado Rapids & under 3.5 38.1% 37.5% 28.3% 1.33× 2.66
Colorado Rapids & over 2.5 35.5% 37.5% 30.9% 1.21× 2.67
Colorado Rapids & under 2.5 21.9% 21.5% 14.5% 1.48× 4.65
Colorado Rapids & over 3.5 19.3% 17.6% 17.2% 1.02× 5.69
Draw & under 2.5 18.4% 17.6% 16.0% 1.10× 5.69
Draw & under 3.5 18.4% 17.6% 16.0% 1.10× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 16.9% 17.6% 19.1% 0.92× 5.69
CF Montréal & under 3.5 14.3% 12.7% 18.8% 0.68× 7.86
CF Montréal & over 1.5 13.0% 12.7% 23.5% 0.54× 7.86
Colorado Rapids & under 1.5 11.3% 12.7% 8.4% 1.52× 7.87
CF Montréal & over 2.5 10.2% 12.7% 20.3% 0.63× 7.87
CF Montréal & under 2.5 8.4% 7.5% 9.7% 0.77× 13.40
Draw & under 1.5 7.0% 7.5% 5.8% 1.28× 13.41
Draw & over 2.5 5.5% 7.5% 8.9% 0.83× 13.42
Draw & over 3.5 5.5% 7.5% 8.9% 0.83× 13.42
CF Montréal & under 1.5 5.6% 7.5% 6.5% 1.14× 13.42
CF Montréal & over 3.5 4.3% 4.6% 11.2% 0.41× 21.92
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (1UP) 70.0% 76.3% 1.31
CF Montréal (1UP) 36.0% 38.0% 2.63
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (2UP) 57.4% 61.2% 1.63
CF Montréal (2UP) 18.6% 22.9% 4.36
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to win 2nd half 46.1% 44.4% 2.25
2nd half drawn 34.4% 33.8% 2.96
CF Montréal to win 2nd half 19.5% 20.3% 4.94
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (+2.5) 84.7% 82.4% 89.5% 0.92× 1.21
Colorado Rapids (+0.5) 81.4% 82.3% 70.1% 1.17× 1.22
CF Montréal (+1.5) 66.9% 68.9% 76.7% 0.90× 1.45
Colorado Rapids (-0.5) 57.4% 57.1% 45.4% 1.26× 1.75
CF Montréal (+0.5) 42.6% 42.9% 54.6% 0.78× 2.33
Colorado Rapids (-1.5) 33.2% 31.1% 23.3% 1.34× 3.22
CF Montréal (-0.5) 18.6% 17.7% 29.9% 0.59× 5.64
Colorado Rapids (-2.5) 15.3% 17.6% 10.5% 1.67× 5.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal to concede 83.4% 84.9% 82.0% 1.03× 1.18
CF Montréal clean sheet 16.6% 15.1% 18.0% 0.84× 6.61
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal to concede in 1st half 53.8% 54.8% 1.83
CF Montréal clean sheet in 1st half 46.2% 45.2% 2.21
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal under 6.5 corners 79.5% 76.0% 1.32
CF Montréal over 2.5 corners 76.8% 76.0% 1.32
CF Montréal under 5.5 corners 68.7% 67.6% 1.48
CF Montréal over 3.5 corners 61.0% 61.8% 1.62
CF Montréal under 4.5 corners 54.9% 53.1% 1.88
CF Montréal over 4.5 corners 45.1% 46.9% 2.13
CF Montréal under 3.5 corners 39.0% 38.2% 2.62
CF Montréal over 5.5 corners 31.3% 32.4% 3.08
CF Montréal under 2.5 corners 23.2% 24.0% 4.16
CF Montréal over 6.5 corners 20.5% 24.0% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal under 3.5 goals 98.5% 97.4% 93.9% 1.04× 1.03
CF Montréal under 2.5 goals 93.3% 92.7% 83.3% 1.11× 1.08
CF Montréal under 1.5 goals 76.3% 75.2% 61.3% 1.23× 1.33
CF Montréal over 0.5 goals 60.4% 64.1% 73.2% 0.88× 1.56
CF Montréal under 0.5 goals 39.6% 35.9% 26.8% 1.34× 2.78
CF Montréal over 1.5 goals 23.7% 24.8% 38.7% 0.64× 4.04
CF Montréal over 2.5 goals 6.7% 7.3% 16.7% 0.44× 13.63
CF Montréal over 3.5 goals 1.5% 2.7% 6.1% 0.44× 37.74
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal under 1.5 in 1st half 94.6% 93.3% 1.07
CF Montréal under 0.5 in 1st half 69.1% 67.3% 1.49
CF Montréal over 0.5 in 1st half 30.9% 32.7% 3.06
CF Montréal over 1.5 in 1st half 5.4% 6.7% 14.95
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (away no bet) 70.6% 74.1% 64.6% 1.15× 1.35
Draw (away no bet) 29.4% 25.9% 35.4% 0.73× 3.87
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal even goals 57.8% 58.0% 53.6% 1.08× 1.73
CF Montréal odd goals 42.2% 42.0% 46.4% 0.91× 2.38
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.2% 86.3% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.8% 13.7% 7.31
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.9% 66.4% 1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.1% 33.6% 2.97
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.6% 59.2% 1.69
Colorado Rapids to score 2+ in a row 46.5% 47.7% 2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.9% 21.8% 4.59
Colorado Rapids to score 3+ in a row 19.7% 17.9% 5.60
CF Montréal to score 2+ in a row 16.3% 17.8% 5.62
CF Montréal to score 3+ in a row 3.4% 3.4% 29.53
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids corners (+3.5) 87.0% 84.5% 1.18
Colorado Rapids corners (+2.5) 80.6% 79.8% 1.25
CF Montréal corners (+3.5) 77.4% 74.8% 1.34
Colorado Rapids corners (+1.5) 72.4% 70.8% 1.41
CF Montréal corners (+2.5) 68.8% 65.8% 1.52
CF Montréal corners (+1.5) 58.8% 57.1% 1.75
Colorado Rapids corners (-1.5) 41.2% 42.9% 2.33
Colorado Rapids corners (-2.5) 31.2% 34.2% 2.93
CF Montréal corners (-1.5) 27.6% 29.2% 3.42
Colorado Rapids corners (-3.5) 22.6% 25.2% 3.98
CF Montréal corners (-2.5) 19.4% 20.2% 4.95
CF Montréal corners (-3.5) 13.0% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 40.3% 38.2% 2.62
12+ corners 30.2% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.4% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 70.0% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 69.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 60.9% 63.3% 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 59.7% 57.9% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 50.9% 53.2% 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 49.1% 46.8% 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 40.3% 42.1% 2.38
Over 10.5 corners 39.1% 36.7% 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 30.2% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 30.0% 27.4% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 22.6% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.4% 11.6% 10.3% 1.12× 8.64
1-0 11.3% 11.6% 8.4% 1.38× 8.64
2-0 10.6% 11.6% 6.3% 1.84× 8.64
2-1 9.8% 7.3% 9.9% 0.74× 13.74
0-0 7.0% 7.3% 5.8% 1.25× 13.75
3-0 6.4% 7.3% 4.1% 1.76× 13.75
3-1 5.9% 7.3% 4.9% 1.48× 13.75
0-1 5.6% 7.3% 6.5% 1.11× 13.75
1-2 5.1% 7.3% 7.4% 0.98× 13.76
2-2 4.5% 1.8% 6.1% 0.30× 55.40
Any other score 3.9% 1.8% 4.7% 0.38× 55.41
0-2 2.8% 1.8% 3.3% 0.54× 55.44
3-2 2.7% 1.8% 3.6% 0.51× 55.44
4-0 2.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.43× 55.44
4-1 2.6% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 55.44
1-3 1.6% 1.8% 3.4% 0.52× 55.47
2-3 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 55.47
4-2 1.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.12× 55.48
0-3 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.98× 55.49
0-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.8% 2.25× 55.50
1-4 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.31× 55.50
2-4 0.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.05× 55.50
3-3 0.8% 1.8% 2.6% 0.68× 55.49
3-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 2.62× 55.50
4-3 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 2.25× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 3.93× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids leading at HT (DNB) 72.1% 73.6% 1.36
CF Montréal leading at HT (DNB) 27.9% 26.4% 3.79
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids or draw (1X) 81.4% 80.8% 70.1% 1.15× 1.24
Colorado Rapids or CF Montréal (12) 76.1% 77.8% 75.1% 1.04× 1.29
CF Montréal or draw (X2) 42.6% 41.4% 54.6% 0.76× 2.42
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids or draw at HT 83.8% 81.8% 1.22
Colorado Rapids or CF Montréal at HT 58.2% 58.2% 1.72
CF Montréal or draw at HT 58.1% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids or draw (1UP) 81.4% 83.7% 1.19
CF Montréal or draw (1UP) 42.6% 45.7% 2.19
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids or draw in 2nd half 80.5% 79.7% 1.25
Colorado Rapids or CF Montréal in 2nd half 65.6% 66.2% 1.51
CF Montréal or draw in 2nd half 53.9% 55.6% 1.80
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.3% 59.4% 1.69
Neither half drawn 38.7% 40.6% 2.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (DNB) 75.5% 77.8% 60.3% 1.29× 1.29
CF Montréal (DNB) 24.5% 22.2% 39.7% 0.56× 4.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to score first 61.4% 66.6% 1.50
CF Montréal to score first 31.6% 31.8% 3.15
No goal scored 7.0% 6.2% 16.01
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 50.8% 52.8% 61.1% 0.87× 1.89
Not both teams to score 49.2% 47.2% 38.9% 1.21× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.4% 37.5% 50.9% 0.74× 2.67
Not both score & under 2.5 37.4% 37.4% 29.9% 1.25× 2.67
Not both score & over 2.5 11.8% 11.7% 9.2% 1.28× 8.53
Both score & under 2.5 11.4% 11.7% 10.3% 1.14× 8.54
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.3% 85.5% 79.5% 1.08× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.7% 14.5% 20.5% 0.71× 6.92
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.5% 70.4% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.5% 29.6% 3.38
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.3% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 22.9% 24.4% 4.10
Both score 1st half only 12.2% 11.6% 8.65
Both score in both halves 4.6% 4.8% 20.70
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.3% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.7% 16.8% 5.96
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.3% 54.7% 1.83
A half without a goal 45.7% 45.3% 2.21
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 45.9% 42.5% 1.08× 2.18
4-6 goals 27.0% 27.7% 33.1% 0.84× 3.61
0-1 goals 24.0% 22.8% 20.5% 1.11× 4.38
7+ goals 2.1% 1.9% 4.1% 0.47× 51.47
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal to score exactly 0 39.6% 34.6% 26.8% 1.29× 2.89
CF Montréal to score exactly 1 36.7% 34.6% 34.6% 1.00× 2.89
CF Montréal to score exactly 2 17.0% 18.3% 22.1% 0.83× 5.45
CF Montréal to score 3+ 6.7% 7.6% 16.7% 0.45× 13.16
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 1 29.8% 27.1% 31.0% 0.87× 3.69
Colorado Rapids to score 3+ 26.9% 27.1% 25.2% 1.07× 3.70
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 2 26.8% 27.1% 26.0% 1.04× 3.70
Colorado Rapids to score exactly 0 16.6% 18.5% 18.0% 1.03× 5.41
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids leading at HT 41.9% 41.8% 2.39
Draw at HT 41.8% 41.8% 2.39
CF Montréal leading at HT 16.2% 18.2% 5.48
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids -1: 2 42.6% 42.2% 2.37
Colorado Rapids -1: 1 33.2% 32.2% 3.11
Colorado Rapids -1: X 24.3% 24.0% 4.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (0:1) 42.6% 41.8% 54.6% 0.77× 2.39
Colorado Rapids (0:1) 33.2% 34.7% 23.3% 1.49× 2.89
Draw (0:1) 24.3% 24.5% 22.2% 1.10× 4.09
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (0:2) 66.9% 65.8% 76.7% 0.86× 1.52
Draw (0:2) 17.9% 16.3% 12.8% 1.27× 6.12
Colorado Rapids (0:2) 15.3% 16.2% 10.5% 1.54× 6.16
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (0:3) 84.7% 83.7% 89.5% 0.94× 1.19
Draw (0:3) 9.5% 7.0% 6.6% 1.05× 14.34
Colorado Rapids (0:3) 5.8% 6.9% 4.0% 1.72× 14.54
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (0:4) 94.2% 94.2% 96.0% 0.98× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.0% 1.3% 2.1% 0.61× 79.33
Colorado Rapids (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% 0.60× 80.40
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (1:0) 81.4% 80.4% 70.1% 1.15× 1.24
Draw (1:0) 12.3% 11.8% 16.8% 0.70× 8.50
CF Montréal (1:0) 6.4% 8.5% 13.2% 0.65× 11.74
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids (2:0) 93.6% 91.7% 86.8% 1.06× 1.09
Draw (2:0) 4.7% 2.7% 8.7% 0.31× 36.66
CF Montréal (2:0) 1.6% 2.7% 4.6% 0.58× 37.41
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.1% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 25.7% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to concede 60.4% 65.9% 73.2% 0.90× 1.52
Colorado Rapids clean sheet 39.6% 34.1% 26.8% 1.27× 2.93
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids clean sheet in 1st half 69.1% 67.5% 1.48
Colorado Rapids to concede in 1st half 30.9% 32.5% 3.07
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids over 2.5 corners 83.3% 81.0% 1.24
Colorado Rapids under 6.5 corners 70.4% 71.8% 1.39
Colorado Rapids over 3.5 corners 70.1% 71.8% 1.39
Colorado Rapids under 5.5 corners 58.4% 57.6% 1.74
Colorado Rapids over 4.5 corners 55.5% 57.6% 1.74
Colorado Rapids under 4.5 corners 44.5% 42.4% 2.36
Colorado Rapids over 5.5 corners 41.6% 42.4% 2.36
Colorado Rapids under 3.5 corners 29.9% 28.2% 3.55
Colorado Rapids over 6.5 corners 29.6% 28.2% 3.55
Colorado Rapids under 2.5 corners 16.7% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 3.5 goals 89.2% 87.9% 90.6% 0.97× 1.14
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 goals 83.4% 82.4% 82.0% 1.01× 1.21
Colorado Rapids under 2.5 goals 73.1% 72.8% 74.8% 0.97× 1.37
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 goals 53.6% 52.8% 51.1% 1.03× 1.89
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 goals 46.4% 47.2% 48.9% 0.96× 2.12
Colorado Rapids over 2.5 goals 26.9% 27.2% 25.2% 1.08× 3.67
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 goals 16.6% 17.6% 18.0% 0.98× 5.70
Colorado Rapids over 3.5 goals 10.8% 12.1% 9.4% 1.29× 8.23
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids under 1.5 in 1st half 81.8% 80.4% 1.24
Colorado Rapids over 0.5 in 1st half 53.8% 54.8% 1.83
Colorado Rapids under 0.5 in 1st half 46.2% 45.2% 2.21
Colorado Rapids over 1.5 in 1st half 18.2% 19.6% 5.11
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.2% 54.2% 45.4% 1.19× 1.84
CF Montréal (home no bet) 43.8% 45.8% 54.6% 0.84× 2.19
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids even goals 51.4% 50.2% 51.0% 0.99× 1.99
Colorado Rapids odd goals 48.6% 49.8% 49.0% 1.02× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.0% 30.5% 3.28
HT 1-0 24.6% 22.7% 4.41
HT 0-1 11.7% 11.2% 8.94
HT 2-0 9.5% 7.7% 12.97
HT 1-1 9.2% 7.7% 12.98
Any other HT score 5.0% 2.5% 39.72
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.5% 39.80
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.5% 39.88
HT 1-2 1.7% 2.5% 39.90
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 35.8% 41.2% 2.43
Draw at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 19.0% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.9% 12.0% 8.34
CF Montréal at HT / CF Montréal at FT 9.4% 6.6% 15.17
Draw at HT / CF Montréal at FT 7.9% 6.6% 15.20
Colorado Rapids at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.31
CF Montréal at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.4% 29.34
CF Montréal at HT / Colorado Rapids at FT 2.7% 3.4% 29.40
Colorado Rapids at HT / CF Montréal at FT 1.4% 3.4% 29.45
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to score last 61.4% 60.1% 1.66
CF Montréal to score last 31.5% 35.7% 2.80
No goal scored 7.0% 6.2% 16.01
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.0% 93.7% 1.07
Colorado Rapids to lead by 1 at any time 70.0% 76.7% 1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.5% 46.2% 2.17
Colorado Rapids to lead by 2 at any time 39.3% 37.3% 2.68
CF Montréal to lead by 1 at any time 36.0% 37.2% 2.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 20.2% 19.7% 5.07
Colorado Rapids to lead by 3 at any time 17.7% 17.7% 5.66
CF Montréal to lead by 2 at any time 10.4% 11.3% 8.86
CF Montréal to lead by 3 at any time 2.4% 2.6% 38.45
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids most corners 52.0% 51.9% 1.93
CF Montréal most corners 37.4% 39.2% 2.55
Corners level 10.7% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.9% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.9% 78.9% 73.1% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.9% 73.6% 75.5% 0.98× 1.36
2-5 goals 70.2% 73.6% 68.5% 1.07× 1.36
1-3 goals 63.9% 62.3% 57.2% 1.09× 1.61
2-4 goals 62.0% 62.3% 58.4% 1.07× 1.61
3-6 goals 49.1% 48.0% 55.9% 0.86× 2.08
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.0% 42.5% 1.13× 2.08
3-5 goals 45.4% 48.0% 48.9% 0.98× 2.08
1-2 goals 41.8% 43.6% 34.4% 1.27× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.2% 38.8% 38.8% 1.00× 2.58
4-6 goals 27.0% 30.4% 33.1% 0.92× 3.28
4-5 goals 23.2% 24.7% 26.1% 0.95× 4.04
5-6 goals 11.9% 13.4% 17.2% 0.78× 7.44
7+ goals 2.1% 2.0% 4.1% 0.49× 49.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids never behind 57.0% 63.0% 1.59
CF Montréal never behind 22.9% 24.0% 4.17
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.8% 50.1% 50.2% 1.00× 2.00
Even number of goals 51.2% 49.9% 49.8% 1.00× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.1% 93.0% 88.9% 1.05× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.0% 93.0% 94.2% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.9% 88.7% 78.8% 1.13× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 76.0% 78.2% 79.5% 0.98× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 70.9% 72.4% 62.9% 1.15× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 53.5% 59.9% 0.89× 1.87
Under 2.5 goals 48.8% 46.5% 40.1% 1.16× 2.15
Over 3.5 goals 29.1% 27.6% 37.1% 0.74× 3.62
Under 1.5 goals 24.0% 21.8% 20.5% 1.06× 4.59
Over 4.5 goals 14.1% 11.3% 21.2% 0.53× 8.87
Under 0.5 goals 7.0% 7.0% 5.8% 1.21× 14.19
Over 5.5 goals 5.9% 7.0% 11.1% 0.63× 14.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.8% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.6% 92.7% 87.6% 1.06× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.5% 80.7% 74.8% 1.08× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 68.1% 68.1% 74.5% 0.91× 1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.6% 62.4% 51.9% 1.20× 1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.4% 37.6% 48.1% 0.78× 2.66
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 31.9% 31.9% 25.5% 1.25× 3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.5% 19.3% 25.2% 0.76× 5.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.4% 7.3% 12.4% 0.59× 13.79
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.2% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.11
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.2% 88.1% 1.14
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.2% 68.6% 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.0% 68.6% 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.0% 31.4% 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.8% 31.4% 3.18
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.8% 11.9% 8.43
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.2% 80.3% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.9% 80.3% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.0% 51.8% 1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.0% 48.2% 2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.1% 19.7% 5.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.8% 19.7% 5.08
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal not to score in both halves 86.8% 84.5% 1.18
Colorado Rapids not to score in both halves 65.5% 66.8% 1.50
Colorado Rapids to score in both halves 34.5% 33.2% 3.01
CF Montréal to score in both halves 13.2% 15.5% 6.46
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 50.8% 54.6% 61.1% 0.89× 1.83
Only Colorado Rapids scores 32.6% 36.1% 21.1% 1.71× 2.77
Only CF Montréal scores 9.5% 6.7% 12.3% 0.55× 14.95
Neither team scores 7.0% 6.6% 5.8% 1.14× 15.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.8% 21.6% 19.7% 1.09× 4.64
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 21.5% 22.9% 0.94× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 16.9% 18.6% 14.8% 1.26× 5.39
Exactly 4 goals 15.1% 18.5% 16.0% 1.16× 5.40
Exactly 5 goals 8.2% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.12
Exactly 0 goals 7.0% 7.6% 5.8% 1.30× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.9% 7.6% 11.1% 0.68× 13.16
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.0% 50.9% 1.97
1 goal in 2nd half 32.2% 33.2% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 20.8% 18.4% 5.42
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal not to win both halves 96.8% 96.7% 1.03
Colorado Rapids not to win both halves 80.6% 82.7% 1.21
Colorado Rapids to win both halves 19.5% 17.3% 5.79
CF Montréal to win both halves 3.2% 3.3% 30.06
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids to win either half 68.6% 67.2% 1.49
CF Montréal to win neither half 67.5% 67.2% 1.49
CF Montréal to win either half 32.5% 32.8% 3.05
Colorado Rapids to win neither half 31.4% 32.8% 3.05
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal not to win to nil 90.5% 92.2% 87.7% 1.05× 1.08
Colorado Rapids not to win to nil 67.4% 64.8% 78.9% 0.82× 1.54
Colorado Rapids to win to nil 32.6% 35.2% 21.1% 1.67× 2.84
CF Montréal to win to nil 9.5% 7.8% 12.3% 0.63× 12.86
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Colorado Rapids by 1 24.3% 23.8% 22.2% 1.07× 4.21
Draw 23.9% 23.8% 24.9% 0.96× 4.21
Colorado Rapids by 2 17.9% 17.0% 12.8% 1.32× 5.89
Colorado Rapids by 3+ 15.3% 17.0% 10.5% 1.61× 5.90
CF Montréal by 1 12.3% 11.9% 16.8% 0.70× 8.44
CF Montréal by 2 4.7% 2.8% 8.7% 0.33× 35.09
CF Montréal by 3+ 1.6% 2.8% 4.6% 0.61× 35.55
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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