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Como v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 25 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–2
0.70 – 1.05 xG
Shots
15 – 5
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+0.30 – +0.95
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Nico Paz 29' — goalMateo Retegui 55' — goalMateo Retegui 69' — goal
Como 0.70 xGAtalanta 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nico Paz 2' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 3' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moreno 12' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Yannick Engelhardt 13' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Davide Zappacosta 18' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 29' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 29' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 36' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lucas Da Cunha 39' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Giorgio Scalvini 46' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Strefezza 47' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Máximo Perrone 48' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 55' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 61' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mateo Retegui 69' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 71' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Andrea Belotti 76' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 76' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Charles De Ketelaere 78' — Saved Shot (0.57 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 90' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Como attacking right Atalanta attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Como Nico Paz 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
3' Como Nico Paz 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot Alieu Fadera
12' Como Alberto Moreno 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Máximo Perrone
13' Como Yannick Engelhardt 0.01 From Corner Saved Shot Lucas Da Cunha
18' Atalanta Davide Zappacosta 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mateo Retegui
29' Como Alieu Fadera 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
29' Como Nico Paz 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Goal Alieu Fadera
36' Como Nico Paz 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
39' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.03 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
46' Atalanta Giorgio Scalvini 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot Juan Cuadrado
47' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Fellipe Jack
48' Como Máximo Perrone 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Nico Paz
55' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Goal Marco Brescianini
61' Como Nico Paz 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Yannick Engelhardt
69' Atalanta Mateo Retegui 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Marco Brescianini
71' Como Nico Paz 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot
76' Como Andrea Belotti 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
76' Como Nico Paz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andrea Belotti
78' Atalanta Charles De Ketelaere 0.57 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Éderson
90' Como Nico Paz 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nico Paz AMC 90 1 0 8 1 0.38 0.08 0.48
Lucas Da Cunha DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.01 0.33
Alieu Fadera AML 90 0 1 1 2 0.03 0.14 0.18
Yannick Engelhardt DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.24
Assane Diao AMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Alberto Dossena DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Jean Butez GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Marc-Oliver Kempf DC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Gabriel Strefezza FW 71 0 0 1 2 0.10 0.03 0.18
Máximo Perrone DMC 71 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.07 0.31
Fellipe Jack Sub 65 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.12
Alberto Moreno DL 25 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.12
Maxence Caqueret Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Cutrone Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Belotti Sub 13 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.07 0.08

Atalanta

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mateo Retegui FW 90 2 0 2 1 0.42 0.02 0.45
Éderson MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.57 0.60
Sead Kolasinac DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Berat Gjimshiti DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Lazar Samardzic AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Carnesecchi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ademola Lookman AMC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giorgio Scalvini DC 59 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.02
Juan Cuadrado DMR 58 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.00
Davide Zappacosta DML 49 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Marten de Roon MC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Charles De Ketelaere Sub 41 0 0 1 0 0.57 0.00 0.91
Raoul Bellanova Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.34
Matteo Ruggeri Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Marco Brescianini Sub 31 0 2 0 2 0.00 0.42 0.42
Rafael Toloi Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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