Como v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
28 – 6
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
19 – 3
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
2.62 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-6.02 – -0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
42.2%
Draw
26.9%
Atalanta win
30.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWWLDWW last 10
scored 19
from 23.3 xG
conceded 8
from 13.5 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLLWL last 10
scored 14
from 12.8 xG
conceded 15
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.51 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 6.02 xGAtalanta 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 17' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álex Valle |
| 23' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 27' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 33' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 35' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 36' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 37' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 38' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 40' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 41' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.58 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 41' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 45' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 49' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 51' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.72 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jayden Addai |
| 63' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 64' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Éderson |
| 67' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 67' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jayden Addai |
| 74' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 75' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 78' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kamaldeen Sulemana |
| 82' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 84' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 89' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sergi Roberto |
| 97' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.60 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 97' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.74 | 0.10 | 1.68 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.34 | 1.63 |
| Martin Baturina AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.06 | 1.50 | 1.47 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.98 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.85 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.62 | 1.41 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.79 | 0.16 | 2.03 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 2.35 |
| Mergim Vojvoda AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Jayden Addai Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 0.51 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Honest Ahanor DC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Odilon Kossounou Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |