Como v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 4
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.90 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.07 – -0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
51.2%
Draw
27.8%
Cagliari win
21.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.76–1.04 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.07 xGCagliari 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Cagliari |
Mattia Felici | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 31' |
 Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 37' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Cagliari |
Mattia Felici | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Obert |
| 38' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jayden Addai |
| 39' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 46' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 46' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 47' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 53' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 53' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.80 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 57' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diego Carlos |
| 86' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marco Palestra MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Mattia Felici ML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adam Obert DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Ndary Adopo Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Zito Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Luca Mazzitelli Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.80 | 0.09 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jayden Addai AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Álvaro Morata FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Assane Diao AML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |