Como v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 22 November 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Como

14:00 UTC

Cagliari

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 771h before kick-off

Como win

69.4%

model 65.6%

Draw

19.4%

model 19.6%

Cagliari win

11.2%

model 14.8%

691911

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.9%
1-0 10.2%
2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.2%
3-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.5%	Under 2.5	41.5%
BTTS yes	52.5%	BTTS no	47.5%
Como 1+	88.2%	Como 2+	62.9%
Cagliari 1+	59.5%	Cagliari 2+	22.9%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.90. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Como to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 32%

59.3% fair odds 1.69

strong signal · 721 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cagliari not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 78%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Como carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1528.
Como have created 2.20 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.84.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Como average 2.69 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Como have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 19.4% for the draw and 11.2% for Cagliari. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.13 for Como and 0.90 for Cagliari.

Why Como

Como carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1528. Como have created 2.20 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.84. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Como average 2.69 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Cagliari can win

Cagliari have created 1.58 xG a match over their last five while Como have allowed 1.45. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Cagliari average 1.88 xG a match.

Key players

Como's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tasos Douvikas (0.48), Nico Paz (0.40), Assane Diao (0.32). Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Daniel Maldini (0.35), Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Paul Mendy (0.30).

Availability

1 of Como's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Como's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Como: 62% possession, 22.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces. Cagliari: 40% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Como's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Como are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.9%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Como are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWDWWWLDW last 10 scored 18 from 22.0 xG conceded 8 from 14.5 xG

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLWWWDL last 10 scored 10 from 15.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	662015	2.13–0.90	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	632116	1.97–0.87	1-0 12%	54%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win	67.4%	64.8%	40.0%	1.62×	1.54
Draw	18.9%	19.4%	26.4%	0.73×	5.15
Cagliari to win	13.7%	13.5%	33.7%	0.40×	7.40

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & not both score	36.9%	33.3%	22.6%	1.47×	3.00
Como & both teams score	30.5%	29.6%	17.5%	1.69×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	14.3%	13.3%	18.6%	0.71×	7.53
Cagliari & both teams score	7.2%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.01
Cagliari & not both score	6.5%	8.3%	20.6%	0.40×	12.02
Draw & not both score	4.6%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & over 1.5	57.3%	54.9%	29.9%	1.83×	1.82
Como & over 2.5	46.2%	45.0%	23.3%	1.93×	2.22
Como & under 3.5	39.2%	34.9%	29.6%	1.18×	2.87
Como & over 3.5	28.2%	26.1%	10.6%	2.46×	3.84
Como & under 2.5	21.2%	21.6%	16.8%	1.28×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	14.3%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.5%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.5%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Cagliari & under 3.5	10.3%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Como & under 1.5	10.1%	12.8%	10.2%	1.26×	7.79
Cagliari & over 1.5	9.7%	7.9%	24.6%	0.32×	12.63
Cagliari & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	18.1%	0.44×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Cagliari & under 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81
Cagliari & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81
Cagliari & over 3.5	3.5%	4.8%	7.5%	0.64×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1UP)	78.1%	78.9%	55.3%	1.43×	1.27
Cagliari (1UP)	31.2%	32.7%	50.5%	0.65×	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2UP)	67.4%	68.3%	41.8%	1.63×	1.47
Cagliari (2UP)	13.7%	14.2%	36.2%	0.39×	7.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win 2nd half	55.9%	60.9%	35.0%	1.74×	1.64
2nd half drawn	29.7%	25.8%	35.0%	0.74×	3.87
Cagliari to win 2nd half	14.3%	11.6%	30.2%	0.38×	8.62

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.3%	91.9%	85.1%	1.08×	1.09
Cagliari under 0.5 in 2nd half	61.3%	60.0%	50.0%	1.20×	1.67
Cagliari over 0.5 in 2nd half	38.7%	40.0%	50.0%	0.80×	2.50
Cagliari over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.7%	8.1%	14.9%	0.55×	12.27

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.9%	73.9%	53.7%	1.38×	1.35
Como under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.8%	63.3%	81.5%	0.78×	1.58
Como over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.2%	36.7%	18.5%	1.98×	2.72
Como under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.1%	26.1%	46.3%	0.56×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (+0.5)	86.3%	88.5%	66.3%	1.33×	1.13
Cagliari (+2.5)	76.5%	78.5%	92.3%	0.85×	1.27
Como (-0.5)	67.4%	68.7%	40.0%	1.72×	1.46
Cagliari (+1.5)	56.2%	57.0%	82.5%	0.69×	1.75
Como (-1.5)	43.8%	43.0%	17.5%	2.45×	2.33
Cagliari (+0.5)	32.6%	31.3%	60.0%	0.52×	3.19
Como (-2.5)	23.5%	21.5%	7.7%	2.80×	4.65
Cagliari (-0.5)	13.7%	11.5%	33.7%	0.34×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	88.9%	86.3%	71.6%	1.21×	1.16
Cagliari clean sheet	11.1%	13.7%	28.4%	0.48×	7.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	60.6%	65.0%	42.1%	1.55×	1.54
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	39.4%	35.0%	57.9%	0.60×	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 2nd half	71.9%	70.8%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Cagliari clean sheet in 2nd half	28.1%	29.2%	46.3%	0.63×	3.43

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	93.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	87.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	77.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	55.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	44.2%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	22.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	12.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	6.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	78.0%	76.3%	65.0%	1.17×	1.31
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	58.5%	59.4%	69.6%	0.85×	1.68
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	41.5%	40.6%	30.4%	1.33×	2.46
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	22.0%	23.7%	35.0%	0.68×	4.21
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	11.9%	0.64×	13.07
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	94.1%	94.0%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	67.7%	69.4%	58.8%	1.18×	1.44
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	32.3%	30.6%	41.2%	0.74×	3.27
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	5.9%	6.0%	10.1%	0.60×	16.54

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari scores equally in both	49.8%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07
Cagliari scores more in 2nd half	28.6%	26.3%	32.8%	0.80×	3.80
Cagliari scores more in 1st half	21.6%	22.0%	23.9%	0.92×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (away no bet)	78.1%	73.6%	60.2%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	21.9%	26.4%	39.8%	0.66×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	58.6%	57.0%	55.5%	1.03×	1.76
Cagliari odd goals	41.4%	43.0%	44.5%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.0%	82.6%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.0%	17.4%	12.7%	1.37×	5.75

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.6%	67.2%	60.2%	1.12×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.5%	32.8%	39.8%	0.82×	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.8%	62.3%	53.4%	1.17×	1.61
Como to score 2+ in a row	57.5%	55.2%	31.7%	1.74×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.2%	29.1%	17.9%	1.63×	3.43
Como to score 3+ in a row	28.9%	25.2%	10.1%	2.50×	3.96
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	14.0%	12.1%	27.8%	0.44×	8.27
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	2.6%	2.6%	7.9%	0.32×	39.14

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como corners (+3.5)	96.3%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Como corners (+2.5)	93.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Como corners (+1.5)	89.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Como corners (-1.5)	64.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	56.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Como corners (-2.5)	54.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	45.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Como corners (-3.5)	43.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	35.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	11.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	6.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	3.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.6%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	73.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	64.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	64.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	35.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	27.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.1%	11.5%	6.7%	1.70×	8.72
1-0	10.1%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.73
1-1	8.9%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.50
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
3-0	8.2%	7.4%	3.6%	2.05×	13.50
3-1	7.2%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
Any other score	7.4%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.50
0-0	4.6%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.29
0-1	4.0%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	1.8%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-2	3.9%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.29
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	4.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.29
4-1	3.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2nd half DNB)	79.6%	79.9%	53.7%	1.49×	1.25
Cagliari (2nd half DNB)	20.4%	20.1%	46.3%	0.43×	4.98

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT (DNB)	76.0%	74.8%	51.1%	1.46×	1.34
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	24.0%	25.2%	48.9%	0.51×	3.97

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1X)	86.3%	86.5%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Como or Cagliari (12)	81.1%	80.6%	73.6%	1.10×	1.24
Cagliari or draw (X2)	32.6%	35.2%	60.0%	0.59×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw at HT	85.0%	84.4%	72.8%	1.16×	1.19
Como or Cagliari at HT	62.7%	61.6%	55.4%	1.11×	1.62
Cagliari or draw at HT	52.3%	47.8%	71.6%	0.67×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1UP)	86.3%	91.8%	71.6%	1.28×	1.09
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	32.6%	39.0%	65.5%	0.60×	2.56

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw in 2nd half	85.7%	88.4%	69.8%	1.27×	1.13
Como or Cagliari in 2nd half	70.3%	74.2%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	44.1%	39.1%	65.0%	0.60×	2.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.9%	58.4%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Neither half drawn	44.1%	41.6%	36.5%	1.14×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (DNB)	83.1%	80.3%	54.3%	1.48×	1.25
Cagliari (DNB)	16.9%	19.7%	45.7%	0.43×	5.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score first	68.1%	69.5%	48.6%	1.43×	1.44
Cagliari to score first	27.3%	27.9%	43.6%	0.64×	3.59
No goal scored	4.6%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.20

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.0%	51.3%	49.2%	1.04×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.0%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.1%	41.6%	37.4%	1.11×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	31.7%	34.5%	40.1%	0.86×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	16.3%	21.5%	10.8%	1.99×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.8%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.2%	14.4%	13.5%	1.07×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	73.8%	74.9%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.2%	25.1%	1.04×	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.0%	60.0%	62.7%	0.96×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	22.4%	21.1%	20.3%	1.04×	4.75
Both score 1st half only	14.1%	10.7%	12.3%	0.87×	9.34
Both score in both halves	5.4%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.4%	83.2%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.6%	16.8%	17.1%	0.99×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.7%	59.6%	52.8%	1.13×	1.68
A half without a goal	39.3%	40.4%	47.2%	0.85×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.2%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.3%	30.7%	23.8%	1.29×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.8%	20.2%	27.0%	0.75×	4.94
7+ goals	3.7%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.13

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 0	41.5%	37.3%	30.4%	1.23×	2.68
Cagliari to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	34.7%	1.03×	2.78
Cagliari to score exactly 2	16.1%	19.6%	23.2%	0.84×	5.11
Cagliari to score 3+	6.0%	8.5%	11.9%	0.72×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score 3+	37.7%	35.6%	15.0%	2.37×	2.81
Como to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Como to score exactly 1	24.4%	23.3%	32.1%	0.73×	4.29
Como to score exactly 0	11.1%	14.3%	28.4%	0.50×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT	47.7%	52.2%	28.4%	1.84×	1.92
Draw at HT	37.3%	38.4%	44.6%	0.86×	2.60
Cagliari leading at HT	15.0%	15.6%	27.2%	0.57×	6.42

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como -1: 1	43.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Como -1: 2	32.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Como -1: X	23.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (0:1)	43.8%	42.7%	17.5%	2.43×	2.34
Cagliari (0:1)	32.6%	30.1%	60.0%	0.50×	3.32
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:2)	56.2%	62.9%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
Como (0:2)	23.5%	20.3%	7.7%	2.64×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	20.3%	20.3%	10.0%	2.03×	4.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:3)	76.5%	80.4%	92.3%	0.87×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	13.0%	10.0%	4.7%	2.12×	10.04
Como (0:3)	10.5%	9.9%	3.1%	3.17×	10.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (0:4)	89.5%	92.0%	96.9%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.5%	4.6%	2.3%	2.02×	21.70
Como (0:4)	4.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.66

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1:0)	86.3%	86.0%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.5%	6.9%	19.4%	0.36×	14.46
Cagliari (1:0)	4.3%	3.3%	14.4%	0.23×	30.44

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2:0)	95.7%	96.8%	85.6%	1.13×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.2%	2.3%	8.7%	0.26×	43.63
Cagliari (2:0)	1.0%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.7%	48.8%	46.2%	1.06×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.9%	26.2%	27.0%	0.97×	3.81
Halves equal	23.4%	24.4%	26.9%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to concede	58.5%	60.7%	69.6%	0.87×	1.65
Como clean sheet	41.5%	39.3%	30.4%	1.29×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como clean sheet in 1st half	67.7%	69.7%	58.8%	1.19×	1.43
Como to concede in 1st half	32.3%	30.3%	41.2%	0.73×	3.30

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como clean sheet in 2nd half	61.3%	59.7%	50.0%	1.19×	1.67
Como to concede in 2nd half	38.7%	40.3%	50.0%	0.81×	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 2.5 corners	88.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Como over 3.5 corners	77.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Como over 4.5 corners	65.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Como under 6.5 corners	58.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Como over 5.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Como under 5.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Como over 6.5 corners	41.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Como under 4.5 corners	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Como under 3.5 corners	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Como under 2.5 corners	11.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 0.5 goals	88.9%	87.3%	71.6%	1.22×	1.15
Como under 3.5 goals	82.0%	82.2%	95.3%	0.86×	1.22
Como over 1.5 goals	64.5%	63.6%	39.7%	1.60×	1.57
Como under 2.5 goals	62.3%	63.6%	85.0%	0.75×	1.57
Como over 2.5 goals	37.7%	36.4%	15.0%	2.42×	2.75
Como under 1.5 goals	35.5%	36.4%	60.3%	0.60×	2.75
Como over 3.5 goals	18.0%	17.8%	4.7%	3.80×	5.62
Como under 0.5 goals	11.1%	12.7%	28.4%	0.45×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 1.5 in 1st half	76.1%	77.3%	89.3%	0.87×	1.29
Como over 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	64.8%	42.1%	1.54×	1.54
Como under 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	35.2%	57.9%	0.61×	2.84
Como over 1.5 in 1st half	23.9%	22.7%	10.7%	2.12×	4.40

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como scores more in 2nd half	44.1%	42.1%	36.2%	1.16×	2.37
Como scores equally in both	28.6%	27.8%	41.7%	0.67×	3.59
Como scores more in 1st half	27.3%	27.8%	22.2%	1.25×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.9%	56.4%	44.0%	1.28×	1.77
Cagliari (home no bet)	42.1%	43.6%	56.0%	0.78×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como even goals	50.6%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Como odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.7%	27.9%	33.8%	0.83×	3.58
HT 1-0	24.8%	24.5%	18.4%	1.33×	4.09
HT 2-0	11.6%	11.0%	5.8%	1.91×	9.08
HT 0-1	10.4%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.09
HT 1-1	9.7%	6.9%	10.3%	0.67×	14.45
Any other HT score	7.5%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.48
HT 2-1	4.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	41.98
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.15
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.16
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	0.7%	3.28×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como at HT / Como at FT	43.0%	41.3%	22.0%	1.88×	2.42
Draw at HT / Como at FT	20.9%	21.7%	15.9%	1.37×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.1%	12.6%	16.1%	0.78×	7.92
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	7.4%	6.0%	19.1%	0.31×	16.62
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	5.3%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.68
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	5.9%	0.59×	28.62
Como at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.63
Cagliari at HT / Como at FT	3.5%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.64
Como at HT / Cagliari at FT	0.9%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score last	68.1%	70.4%	48.2%	1.46×	1.42
Cagliari to score last	27.3%	27.6%	44.0%	0.63×	3.63
No goal scored	4.6%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.20

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.4%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Como to lead by 1 at any time	78.1%	78.5%	55.3%	1.42×	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.0%	54.9%	43.6%	1.26×	1.82
Como to lead by 2 at any time	50.2%	50.8%	23.9%	2.12×	1.97
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	31.2%	29.8%	50.5%	0.59×	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.3%	25.5%	15.1%	1.69×	3.92
Como to lead by 3 at any time	26.6%	25.5%	8.8%	2.91×	3.92
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	8.0%	6.7%	20.2%	0.33×	14.88
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	1.7%	1.6%	6.5%	0.24×	63.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como most corners	74.4%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Cagliari most corners	17.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	8.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.5%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.6%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.4%	59.1%	67.5%	0.87×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.7%	59.1%	47.2%	1.25×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.2%	53.2%	45.2%	1.18×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.2%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.6%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.0%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.3%	35.2%	23.8%	1.48×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.9%	30.2%	21.8%	1.39×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.1%	18.8%	10.6%	1.78×	5.31
7+ goals	3.7%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.06

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como never behind	64.2%	68.4%	49.5%	1.38×	1.46
Cagliari never behind	17.3%	18.4%	44.7%	0.41×	5.45

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.6%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.4%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.4%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.2%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	80.2%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	63.0%	61.7%	75.4%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.4%	58.6%	48.1%	1.22×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.6%	41.4%	51.9%	0.80×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	37.0%	38.3%	24.6%	1.55×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	19.8%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	18.8%	17.7%	27.0%	0.65×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.6%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.7%	86.7%	96.7%	0.90×	1.15
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.1%	75.9%	86.8%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.0%	75.9%	64.0%	1.19×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.3%	51.9%	67.8%	0.77×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.7%	48.1%	32.2%	1.49×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.0%	24.1%	36.0%	0.67×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.9%	24.1%	13.2%	1.83×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.3%	13.3%	3.3%	4.04×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.2%	89.1%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.3%	71.9%	66.2%	1.09×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.9%	63.2%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.1%	36.8%	29.9%	1.23×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.7%	28.1%	33.8%	0.83×	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.8%	10.9%	8.8%	1.24×	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	83.2%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.2%	77.4%	82.5%	0.94×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.4%	53.2%	43.0%	1.24×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.6%	46.8%	57.0%	0.82×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.8%	22.6%	17.5%	1.29×	4.43
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	16.8%	21.4%	0.79×	5.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to score in both halves	87.5%	85.4%	78.4%	1.09×	1.17
Como not to score in both halves	56.4%	58.0%	75.8%	0.76×	1.73
Como to score in both halves	43.6%	42.0%	24.2%	1.74×	2.38
Cagliari to score in both halves	12.5%	14.6%	21.6%	0.68×	6.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.0%	53.8%	49.2%	1.10×	1.86
Only Como scores	36.9%	39.9%	22.6%	1.77×	2.51
Only Cagliari scores	6.5%	7.1%	20.6%	0.35×	14.05
Neither team scores	4.6%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.65

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.8%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.2%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.6%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.2%	7.6%	3.0%	2.54×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.6%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.2%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.7%	28.2%	33.8%	0.84×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.8%	10.8%	8.8%	1.23×	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.4%	51.4%	43.0%	1.19×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.3%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	17.3%	16.4%	21.4%	0.77×	6.08

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Como not to win both halves	73.3%	72.8%	89.9%	0.81×	1.37
Como to win both halves	26.7%	27.2%	10.1%	2.69×	3.68
Cagliari to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	8.9%	0.31×	35.88

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win either half	77.0%	79.8%	53.2%	1.50×	1.25
Cagliari to win neither half	72.8%	73.0%	51.6%	1.42×	1.37
Cagliari to win either half	27.2%	27.0%	48.4%	0.56×	3.71
Como to win neither half	23.0%	20.2%	46.8%	0.43×	4.95

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win to nil	93.5%	92.1%	79.4%	1.16×	1.09
Como not to win to nil	63.1%	66.6%	77.4%	0.86×	1.50
Como to win to nil	36.9%	33.4%	22.6%	1.48×	2.99
Cagliari to win to nil	6.5%	7.9%	20.6%	0.38×	12.68

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como by 1	23.6%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Como by 3+	23.5%	24.1%	7.7%	3.13×	4.15
Como by 2	20.3%	24.1%	10.0%	2.42×	4.15
Draw	18.9%	17.1%	26.4%	0.64×	5.86
Cagliari by 1	9.5%	7.2%	19.4%	0.37×	13.90
Cagliari by 2	3.2%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	36.80
Cagliari by 3+	1.0%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.87