Como v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.77
Goals − xG
+0.09 – +0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
59.7%
Draw
22.0%
Fiorentina win
18.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.89–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.09–1.23 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 62% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 0.91 xGFiorentina 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 17' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 18' |
 Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 25' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Kühn |
| 30' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 34' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 37' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 41' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 42' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 44' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 49' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 55' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 55' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 64' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 64' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 76' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 76' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 78' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 80' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 92' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cher Ndour |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Harrison FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fabiano Parisi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Manor Solomon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Moise Kean FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Martin Baturina AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.63 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.42 |
| Álex Valle DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolas Kühn AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Alberto Moreno Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jayden Addai Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Maxence Caqueret Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |