Como v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 4
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 2
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.80 – -1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
39.7%
Draw
31.5%
Genoa win
28.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.30–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–0.90 | 1-0 14% | 39% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.80 xGGenoa 1.05 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Genoa |
Lior Kasa | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Como |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 14' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 18' |
Como |
Edoardo Goldaniga | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 27' |
Genoa |
Honest Ahanor | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 28' |
Como |
Jonathan Ikone | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Aarón Martín | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Valle |
| 41' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Valle |
| 49' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 56' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Honest Ahanor |
| 58' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Patrick Cutrone |
| 63' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 64' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 86' |
Como |
Ignace Van der Brempt | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrizio Masini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Thorsby MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Honest Ahanor ML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| Jeff Ekhator FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lior Kasa MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andrea Pinamonti Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitinha Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Zanoli Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Sabelli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edoardo Goldaniga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.69 |
| Álex Valle DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.53 |
| Jonathan Ikone AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Patrick Cutrone FW | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.69 |
| Gabriel Strefezza AML | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 1.02 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Gabrielloni Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannick Engelhardt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |