Como v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 15 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.54
Goals − xG
-0.82 – -1.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
48.7%
Draw
28.1%
Genoa win
23.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–0.85 | 1-0 15% | 37% | 42% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.82 xGGenoa 2.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álvaro Morata |
| 20' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Kühn |
| 23' |
Como |
Nicolas Kühn | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 29' |
Como |
Nicolas Kühn | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 29' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.75 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Kühn |
| 37' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Valle |
| 40' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 47' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 51' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 62' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 66' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Kühn |
| 67' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 81' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 82' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 87' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 91' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 91' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrizio Masini DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Mikael Ellertsson AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Stefano Sabelli DR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 0.79 |
| Valentín Carboni Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| Nicolas Kühn AMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.64 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Álvaro Morata FW | 67 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.05 | 0.93 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Máximo Perrone Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Addai Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |