Como v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 7
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
2.16 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.36 – +3.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
24.7%
Draw
24.6%
Internazionale win
50.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.27–1.60 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 3.36 xGInternazionale 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ignace Van der Brempt |
| 25' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Roberto |
| 35' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Roberto |
| 35' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 39' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 39' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 39' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 42' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jean Butez |
| 45' |
 Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 50' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 51' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 53' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.45 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 57' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 59' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Valle |
| 61' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 66' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 71' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 77' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Thuram |
| 83' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 88' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 91' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 91' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.68 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alberto Moreno |
| 94' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Alberto Moreno |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Martin Baturina AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| Álex Valle DL | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Assane Diao AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Sergi Roberto DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jacobo Ramón Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Da Cunha Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.12 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Alberto Moreno Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.14 |