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Como v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 30 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–0
2.26 – 0.44 xG
Shots
15 – 11
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.30 – -0.44
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Nico Paz 48' — goalPatrick Cutrone 79' — goal
Como 2.30 xGLecce 0.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nikola Krstovic 0' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 4' — Shot On Post (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 7' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 8' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 27' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Nico Paz 28' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 30' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Nikola Krstovic 34' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 36' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 40' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Hamza Rafia 42' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Tete Morente 42' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Kaba 45' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 46' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Patrick Cutrone 46' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Nico Paz 48' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Kaba 58' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Santiago Pierotti 60' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 61' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Lucas Da Cunha 62' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Gabriel Strefezza 75' — Blocked Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Ignace Van der Brempt 78' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 79' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Tete Morente 90' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Ante Rebic 92' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)
Como attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
4' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post
7' Como Nico Paz 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Patrick Cutrone
8' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.08 Open Play Blocked Shot Antonino Gallo
27' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Balthazar Pierret
28' Como Nico Paz 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Yannick Engelhardt
30' Como Nico Paz 0.76 Left Foot Saved Shot
34' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Antonino Gallo
36' Como Nico Paz 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
40' Como Alieu Fadera 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
42' Lecce Hamza Rafia 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Santiago Pierotti
42' Lecce Tete Morente 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
45' Lecce Mohamed Kaba 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tete Morente
46' Como Nico Paz 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
46' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alberto Moreno
47' Como Nico Paz 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Lucas Da Cunha
48' Como Nico Paz 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Patrick Cutrone
58' Lecce Mohamed Kaba 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Antonino Gallo
60' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
61' Como Alieu Fadera 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nico Paz
62' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
75' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alieu Fadera
78' Como Ignace Van der Brempt 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gabriel Strefezza
79' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal
90' Lecce Tete Morente 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
92' Lecce Ante Rebic 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Remi Oudin

Players

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gabriel Strefezza AMR 90 0 0 1 3 0.38 0.15 0.67
Alieu Fadera AML 90 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.38 0.74
Ignace Van der Brempt DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.17
Lucas Da Cunha DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.02 0.56
Marc-Oliver Kempf DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.74
José Reina GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Edoardo Goldaniga DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Nico Paz AMC 85 1 0 7 1 1.07 0.08 0.40
Yannick Engelhardt DMC 85 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.27
Patrick Cutrone FW 84 1 1 3 2 0.62 0.19 0.90
Alberto Moreno DL 69 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.17
Alberto Dossena Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Andrea Belotti Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ben Kone Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Simone Verdi Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matthias Braunöder Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hamza Rafia MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Tete Morente FWL 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.08 0.22
Patrick Dorgu DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Gaby Jean DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Pierotti FWR 86 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.05 0.11
Lassana Coulibaly MC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nikola Krstovic FW 62 0 0 4 0 0.16 0.00 0.22
Antonino Gallo DL 62 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.15 0.21
Balthazar Pierret MC 48 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.13
Mohamed Kaba Sub 42 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.08
Ante Rebic Sub 28 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.06
Remi Oudin Sub 28 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Nicola Sansone Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kevin Bonifazi Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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