Como v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 28 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 5
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 1
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.01 – +0.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
66.0%
Draw
22.6%
Lecce win
11.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWWLDWW last 10
scored 19
from 23.3 xG
conceded 8
from 13.5 xG
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–0.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.24–0.73 | 2-0 13% | 57% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 2.99 xGLecce 0.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 8' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 9' |
 Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 11' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ignace Van der Brempt |
| 13' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lameck Banda |
| 15' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 18' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 35' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Máximo Perrone |
| 39' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 43' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.43 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 62' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 67' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ignace Van der Brempt |
| 78' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 78' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 85' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 87' |
Lecce |
Riccardo Sottil | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Stulic |
Players
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.48 | 1.91 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1.32 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.49 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 1.34 |
| Maxence Caqueret AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.53 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 86 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.65 | 1.78 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.16 |
| Mergim Vojvoda AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Diego Carlos Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Nico Paz Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.16 | 0.79 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Assane Diao Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ylber Ramadani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Antonino Gallo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Veiga DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lameck Banda MC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Omri Gandelman AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Corrie Ndaba DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Santiago Pierotti Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oumar Ngom Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Riccardo Sottil Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Gaby Jean Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |