Como v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 14
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+1.53 – -0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
19.4%
Draw
30.0%
Napoli win
50.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.91–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 0.47 xGNapoli 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Billing |
| 6' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 9' |
Napoli |
Stanislav Lobotka | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 12' |
Napoli |
Philip Billing | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 26' |
 Como |
Álex Valle | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 41' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Philip Billing |
| 53' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 54' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 55' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Marc-Oliver Kempf |
| 65' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 66' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 70' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 74' |
Napoli |
Franck Zambo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 76' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nico Paz |
| 94' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
Players
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Giacomo Raspadori FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.67 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Stanislav Lobotka MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Matteo Politano DMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.51 |
| Philip Billing MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Romelu Lukaku FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Franck Zambo Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Gabriel Strefezza AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Edoardo Goldaniga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Máximo Perrone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Assane Diao FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Lucas Da Cunha MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Maxence Caqueret MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Cutrone Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Yannick Engelhardt Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |