Como v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+3.15 – -0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
71.3%
Draw
18.3%
Pisa win
10.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWDWWWLDW last 10
scored 18
from 22.0 xG
conceded 8
from 14.5 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.22–0.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.38–0.83 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.85 xGPisa 0.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Pisa |
Felipe Loyola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Como |
Assane Diao | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 18' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Assane Diao |
| 22' |
Como |
Ignace Van der Brempt | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 25' |
Pisa |
Matteo Tramoni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 28' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Assane Diao |
| 31' |
Pisa |
Felipe Loyola | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simone Canestrelli |
| 33' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 43' |
Como |
Diego Carlos | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 45' |
Pisa |
Felipe Loyola | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Henrik Meister |
| 46' |
Pisa |
Antonio Caracciolo | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Albiol |
| 47' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 54' |
Pisa |
Felipe Loyola | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Como |
Diego Carlos | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 68' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 71' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 74' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alberto Moreno |
| 80' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolas Kühn |
| 83' |
Pisa |
Henrik Meister | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malthe Højholt |
Players
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 0.94 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assane Diao AMR | 79 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.56 | 0.82 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 61 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.05 | 0.61 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxence Caqueret Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Edoardo Goldaniga Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Samuele Angori DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Albiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Nícolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malthe Højholt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Mehdi Leris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Matteo Tramoni FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Felipe Loyola MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Stefano Moreo FW | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Filip Stojilkovic Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Stengs Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Iling-Junior Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |