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Como v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–0
1.12 – 0.65 xG
Shots
18 – 6
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 0.26
Goals − xG
+0.88 – -0.65
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Alessandro Gabrielloni 92' — goalNico Paz 96' — goal
Como 1.12 xGRoma 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mario Hermoso 4' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Alexis Saelemaekers 5' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Mehmet Zeki Çelik 15' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Nico Paz 18' — Shot On Post (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Gabriel Strefezza 20' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Lucas Da Cunha 22' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Saud Abdulhamid 29' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 44' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Paulo Dybala 44' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Lucas Da Cunha 47' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Yannick Engelhardt 48' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Nico Paz 49' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 55' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Yannick Engelhardt 56' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Alieu Fadera 60' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Patrick Cutrone 65' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Edoardo Goldaniga 66' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 72' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Paulo Dybala 74' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Ben Kone 80' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 82' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 84' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Alessandro Gabrielloni 92' — Goal (0.14 xG, Set Piece)Nico Paz 96' — Goal (0.46 xG, Open Play)
Como attacking right Roma attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Roma Mario Hermoso 0.07 From Corner Blocked Shot Paulo Dybala
5' Roma Alexis Saelemaekers 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
15' Roma Mehmet Zeki Çelik 0.10 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
18' Como Nico Paz 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Shot On Post
20' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
22' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
29' Roma Saud Abdulhamid 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Angelino
44' Como Nico Paz 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alieu Fadera
44' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.04 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
47' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Gabriel Strefezza
48' Como Yannick Engelhardt 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
49' Como Nico Paz 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Andrea Belotti
55' Como Alieu Fadera 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
56' Como Yannick Engelhardt 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Lucas Da Cunha
60' Como Alieu Fadera 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Lucas Da Cunha
65' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Ignace Van der Brempt
66' Como Edoardo Goldaniga 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lucas Da Cunha
72' Como Nico Paz 0.03 Direct Freekick Left Foot Saved Shot
74' Roma Paulo Dybala 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Angelino
80' Como Ben Kone 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alessandro Gabrielloni
82' Como Nico Paz 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ignace Van der Brempt
84' Como Alieu Fadera 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Nico Paz
92' Como Alessandro Gabrielloni 0.14 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Patrick Cutrone
96' Como Nico Paz 0.46 Open Play Left Foot Goal Alessandro Gabrielloni

Players

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.00
Mario Hermoso DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Angelino DML 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.39 0.39
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Kouadio Kone MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Paulo Dybala FW 77 0 0 2 1 0.42 0.07 0.39
Alexis Saelemaekers AMC 63 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.02
Saud Abdulhamid DMR 63 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Enzo Le Fée MC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stephan El Shaarawy AMC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Artem Dovbyk Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Mancini Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Pellegrini Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Niccolò Pisilli Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matìas Soulè Malvano Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nico Paz AMC 90 1 0 6 1 0.65 0.05 0.62
Alieu Fadera AML 90 0 0 3 1 0.10 0.05 0.10
Edoardo Goldaniga DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.05
Marc-Oliver Kempf DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
José Reina GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ignace Van der Brempt DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.53
Federico Barba DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Gabriel Strefezza AMR 81 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.06
Lucas Da Cunha DMC 80 0 0 2 3 0.08 0.08 0.13
Yannick Engelhardt DMC 65 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Andrea Belotti FW 65 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Patrick Cutrone Sub 25 0 1 1 1 0.03 0.14 0.08
Sergi Roberto Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ben Kone Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.03
Alessandro Gabrielloni Sub 9 1 1 1 2 0.14 0.47 0.47
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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