Como v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 3
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
15 – 2
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.30
Set-piece xG
1.00 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.49 – +0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
41.0%
Draw
30.1%
Roma win
28.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.20–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.18 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 2.49 xGRoma 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 3' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 8' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 19' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mehmet Zeki Çelik |
| 23' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 37' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 40' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 44' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 54' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 56' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álex Valle |
| 65' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 75' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 77' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 78' |
Como |
Diego Carlos | 0.61 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 78' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 83' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Assane Diao |
| 89' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Valle |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daniele Ghilardi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley DML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Ziólkowski Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Ivan Smolcic DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.91 |
| Álex Valle DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| Martin Baturina AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.75 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lucas Da Cunha MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 1.18 |
| Nico Paz FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Maxence Caqueret AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Sergi Roberto MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| Assane Diao Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| Máximo Perrone Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |