Como v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Como

09:00

Roma

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 821h before kick-off

Como win

46.9%

model 41.8%

Draw

22.8%

model 23.8%

Roma win

30.3%

model 34.4%

472330

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
2-1 8.8%
1-2 7.9%
1-0 7.4%
0-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.7%	Under 2.5	40.3%
BTTS yes	61.8%	BTTS no	38.2%
Como 1+	80.4%	Como 2+	48.5%
Roma 1+	76.8%	Roma 2+	42.9%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.46. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

58.9% fair odds 1.70

strong signal · 1564 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Como (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 86%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Como have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.66.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
At home Como average 2.42 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Como have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 30.3% for Roma and 22.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Como and 1.46 for Roma.

Why Como

Como have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Roma have allowed 0.66. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. At home Como average 2.42 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.63 to 1.46. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Roma can win

Roma have created 2.70 xG a match over their last five while Como have allowed 1.02. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Roma average 2.66 xG a match.

Key players

Como's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tasos Douvikas (0.47), Nico Paz (0.38), Lucas Da Cunha (0.31). Roma's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Donyell Malen (0.84), Paulo Dybala (0.64), Artem Dovbyk (0.31).

Availability

1 of Roma's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Como: 61% possession, 19.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces. Roma: 64% possession, 21.2 shots a match, 7.3 faced, 0.50 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Como are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LLWDWWWDWW last 10 scored 19 from 18.8 xG conceded 10 from 10.2 xG

Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 27 from 27.0 xG conceded 4 from 6.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422434	1.63–1.46	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	412634	1.45–1.30	1-1 12%	52%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win	40.8%	43.0%	39.4%	1.09×	2.33
Roma to win	34.5%	30.4%	33.9%	0.90×	3.29
Draw	24.7%	24.5%	26.8%	0.91×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & both teams score	21.1%	21.9%	17.0%	1.29×	4.57
Como & not both score	19.6%	17.9%	22.5%	0.80×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	17.9%	18.7%	0.96×	5.58
Roma & both teams score	18.2%	17.9%	13.2%	1.36×	5.58
Roma & not both score	16.3%	17.9%	20.9%	0.86×	5.58
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & over 1.5	32.4%	30.9%	29.1%	1.06×	3.24
Como & under 3.5	26.7%	26.0%	29.4%	0.89×	3.84
Roma & over 1.5	27.0%	26.0%	24.6%	1.06×	3.84
Como & over 2.5	26.1%	26.0%	22.5%	1.15×	3.84
Roma & under 3.5	23.2%	21.7%	26.6%	0.81×	4.62
Roma & over 2.5	21.7%	21.7%	18.0%	1.20×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.0%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.0%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Como & under 2.5	14.7%	12.9%	17.0%	0.76×	7.77
Como & over 3.5	14.1%	12.9%	10.1%	1.27×	7.77
Roma & under 2.5	12.8%	12.9%	16.1%	0.80×	7.77
Roma & over 3.5	11.4%	12.9%	7.5%	1.72×	7.77
Como & under 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Roma & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1UP)	58.0%	58.1%	54.6%	1.07×	1.72
Roma (1UP)	52.7%	52.6%	51.1%	1.03×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2UP)	40.8%	47.5%	41.0%	1.16×	2.11
Roma (2UP)	34.5%	31.0%	36.5%	0.85×	3.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win 2nd half	44.0%	41.2%	34.8%	1.18×	2.43
2nd half drawn	33.2%	34.5%	35.8%	0.96×	2.90
Roma to win 2nd half	22.9%	23.1%	29.5%	0.78×	4.32

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (+2.5)	92.2%	92.1%	92.4%	1.00×	1.09
Roma (+1.5)	80.0%	82.4%	82.9%	0.99×	1.21
Como (+0.5)	65.5%	68.7%	66.1%	1.04×	1.46
Roma (+0.5)	59.2%	57.0%	60.6%	0.94×	1.75
Como (-0.5)	40.8%	43.0%	39.4%	1.09×	2.33
Roma (-0.5)	34.5%	31.3%	33.9%	0.92×	3.20
Como (-1.5)	20.0%	17.6%	17.1%	1.03×	5.68
Como (-2.5)	7.8%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to concede	78.2%	79.0%	71.0%	1.11×	1.27
Roma clean sheet	21.8%	21.0%	29.0%	0.72×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma clean sheet in 1st half	61.6%	64.8%	58.9%	1.10×	1.54
Roma to concede in 1st half	38.4%	35.2%	41.1%	0.85×	2.84

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 3.5 goals	94.8%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Roma under 2.5 goals	83.8%	81.4%	88.4%	0.92×	1.23
Roma over 0.5 goals	74.9%	72.0%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Roma under 1.5 goals	59.8%	59.5%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68
Roma over 1.5 goals	40.2%	40.5%	34.6%	1.17×	2.47
Roma under 0.5 goals	25.1%	28.0%	30.6%	0.92×	3.57
Roma over 2.5 goals	16.2%	18.6%	11.6%	1.60×	5.38
Roma over 3.5 goals	5.2%	7.7%	2.9%	2.63×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma under 1.5 in 1st half	83.6%	83.2%	90.1%	0.92×	1.20
Roma over 0.5 in 1st half	51.6%	56.1%	41.1%	1.36×	1.78
Roma under 0.5 in 1st half	48.4%	43.9%	58.9%	0.75×	2.28
Roma over 1.5 in 1st half	16.4%	16.8%	9.9%	1.70×	5.95

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (away no bet)	62.3%	62.1%	59.5%	1.04×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.7%	37.9%	40.5%	0.94×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma even goals	53.2%	52.8%	55.6%	0.95×	1.89
Roma odd goals	46.8%	47.2%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.8%	82.9%	87.2%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.1%	12.8%	1.33×	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.4%	68.6%	59.6%	1.15×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.6%	31.4%	40.4%	0.78×	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.7%	55.2%	52.8%	1.05×	1.81
Como to score 2+ in a row	35.6%	36.4%	31.1%	1.17×	2.75
Roma to score 2+ in a row	30.7%	28.9%	27.6%	1.05×	3.46
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.2%	19.5%	17.3%	1.12×	5.13
Como to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.2%	9.7%	1.25×	8.22
Roma to score 3+ in a row	9.4%	5.7%	7.7%	0.74×	17.53

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.5%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.73
1-0	8.3%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	9.2%	0.80×	13.48
0-1	7.6%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.48
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.48
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
2-0	6.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.48
0-3	2.4%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.48
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.49
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.47
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.25×	58.48
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.47
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.51×	58.48
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.47
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.46
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.47
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.48
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.48
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.51×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
Any other score	3.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma leading at HT (DNB)	62.9%	65.9%	50.0%	1.32×	1.52
Como leading at HT (DNB)	37.1%	34.1%	50.0%	0.68×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or Roma (12)	75.3%	75.5%	73.2%	1.03×	1.32
Como or draw (1X)	65.5%	69.6%	66.1%	1.05×	1.44
Roma or draw (X2)	59.2%	57.0%	60.6%	0.94×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma or draw at HT	78.2%	79.9%	72.5%	1.10×	1.25
Como or draw at HT	63.1%	62.1%	72.5%	0.86×	1.61
Como or Roma at HT	58.7%	56.9%	54.8%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1UP)	65.5%	75.8%	71.3%	1.06×	1.32
Roma or draw (1UP)	59.2%	62.9%	66.3%	0.95×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw in 2nd half	77.1%	76.9%	70.5%	1.09×	1.30
Como or Roma in 2nd half	66.8%	65.5%	64.2%	1.02×	1.53
Roma or draw in 2nd half	56.0%	58.8%	65.2%	0.90×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.8%	61.5%	64.3%	0.96×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.2%	38.5%	35.7%	1.08×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (DNB)	54.1%	51.0%	53.7%	0.95×	1.96
Roma (DNB)	45.9%	49.0%	46.3%	1.06×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score first	49.5%	45.6%	47.6%	0.96×	2.19
Roma to score first	45.0%	41.9%	44.3%	0.95×	2.39
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.5%	54.9%	48.6%	1.13×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.5%	45.1%	51.4%	0.88×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.0%	44.3%	36.8%	1.20×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	33.0%	34.3%	41.0%	0.84×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	12.3%	11.9%	1.04×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.4%	10.5%	0.80×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.9%	83.0%	86.8%	0.96×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.1%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.9%	67.7%	74.8%	0.90×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.1%	32.3%	25.2%	1.28×	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.3%	59.2%	63.2%	0.94×	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.9%	20.9%	20.4%	1.03×	4.79
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.8%	11.8%	0.92×	9.28
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.2%	82.3%	83.4%	0.99×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	19.8%	17.7%	16.6%	1.07×	5.65

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.3%	57.3%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.7%	42.7%	48.1%	0.89×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	47.4%	48.0%	0.99×	2.11
4-6 goals	30.2%	30.7%	23.5%	1.31×	3.26
0-1 goals	21.4%	22.8%	27.8%	0.82×	4.39
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	54.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma to score exactly 1	34.7%	33.8%	34.9%	0.97×	2.96
Roma to score exactly 0	25.1%	27.4%	30.6%	0.89×	3.65
Roma to score exactly 2	24.0%	22.4%	23.0%	0.97×	4.46
Roma to score 3+	16.2%	19.6%	11.6%	1.68×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score exactly 1	33.2%	32.7%	32.2%	1.02×	3.06
Como to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77
Como to score exactly 0	21.8%	23.2%	29.0%	0.80×	4.30
Como to score 3+	19.7%	18.9%	14.4%	1.31×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.3%	43.1%	45.2%	0.95×	2.32
Roma leading at HT	36.9%	37.9%	27.5%	1.38×	2.64
Como leading at HT	21.8%	20.1%	27.5%	0.73×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como -1: 2	59.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Como -1: X	20.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Como -1: 1	20.0%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:1)	59.2%	55.9%	60.6%	0.92×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	20.8%	24.3%	22.4%	1.08×	4.12
Como (0:1)	20.0%	17.8%	17.1%	1.04×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:2)	80.0%	82.7%	82.9%	1.00×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.0%	9.6%	1.14×	9.12
Como (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	7.6%	1.02×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:3)	92.2%	92.6%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	4.6%	1.28×	17.19
Como (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (0:4)	97.5%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	83.47
Como (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.18×	83.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1:0)	65.5%	69.9%	66.1%	1.06×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.9%	17.0%	19.9%	0.86×	5.87
Roma (1:0)	15.7%	17.0%	14.2%	1.20×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2:0)	84.3%	84.6%	85.8%	0.99×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.0%	10.4%	8.5%	1.22×	9.66
Roma (2:0)	5.6%	6.4%	5.8%	1.11×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.7%	48.2%	46.6%	1.03×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.5%	26.7%	0.99×	3.77
Halves equal	24.0%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to concede	74.9%	73.1%	69.4%	1.05×	1.37
Como clean sheet	25.1%	26.9%	30.6%	0.88×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to concede in 1st half	51.6%	56.1%	41.1%	1.36×	1.78
Como clean sheet in 1st half	48.4%	43.9%	58.9%	0.75×	2.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 3.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Como under 2.5 goals	80.3%	82.1%	85.6%	0.96×	1.22
Como over 0.5 goals	78.2%	77.8%	71.0%	1.09×	1.29
Como under 1.5 goals	55.0%	58.8%	61.0%	0.96×	1.70
Como over 1.5 goals	45.0%	41.2%	39.0%	1.06×	2.43
Como under 0.5 goals	21.8%	22.2%	29.0%	0.77×	4.50
Como over 2.5 goals	19.7%	17.9%	14.4%	1.24×	5.59
Como over 3.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	4.6%	1.70×	12.92

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 1.5 in 1st half	91.4%	95.3%	90.1%	1.06×	1.05
Como under 0.5 in 1st half	61.6%	64.6%	58.9%	1.10×	1.55
Como over 0.5 in 1st half	38.4%	35.4%	41.1%	0.86×	2.83
Como over 1.5 in 1st half	8.6%	4.7%	9.9%	0.48×	21.30

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma (home no bet)	58.3%	56.7%	55.8%	1.02×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	41.7%	43.3%	44.2%	0.98×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como even goals	52.4%	50.6%	56.7%	0.89×	1.98
Como odd goals	47.6%	49.4%	43.3%	1.14×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.8%	28.9%	34.3%	0.84×	3.46
HT 0-1	21.6%	24.1%	18.5%	1.30×	4.15
HT 1-0	14.5%	10.9%	18.2%	0.60×	9.13
HT 1-1	10.5%	10.9%	10.5%	1.04×	9.17
HT 0-2	7.8%	7.1%	5.4%	1.31×	14.04
Any other HT score	5.0%	2.3%	3.0%	0.76×	43.24
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.3%	2.5%	0.91×	43.33
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.3%	5.6%	0.41×	43.35
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.3%	2.3%	1.01×	43.42
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	0.6%	3.63×	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma at HT / Roma at FT	24.0%	21.9%	19.2%	1.14×	4.58
Draw at HT / Como at FT	18.1%	16.8%	15.8%	1.06×	5.96
Como at HT / Como at FT	17.6%	16.8%	21.3%	0.79×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.7%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.88
Draw at HT / Roma at FT	9.4%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.61
Roma at HT / Draw at FT	7.9%	6.0%	5.9%	1.01×	16.65
Roma at HT / Como at FT	5.0%	6.0%	2.5%	2.36×	16.74
Como at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	4.4%	0.78×	28.84
Como at HT / Roma at FT	1.1%	3.5%	2.0%	1.71×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score last	49.5%	46.8%	48.4%	0.97×	2.14
Roma to score last	45.0%	40.2%	43.5%	0.92×	2.49
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.7%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Como to lead by 1 at any time	58.0%	55.1%	54.6%	1.01×	1.81
Roma to lead by 1 at any time	52.7%	50.7%	51.1%	0.99×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.7%	44.1%	42.7%	1.03×	2.27
Como to lead by 2 at any time	26.8%	25.4%	22.9%	1.11×	3.93
Roma to lead by 2 at any time	22.1%	19.6%	20.1%	0.97×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.6%	14.9%	14.6%	1.02×	6.70
Como to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.4%	8.4%	1.25×	9.59
Roma to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.6%	6.3%	1.05×	15.06

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.6%	78.6%	80.6%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.7%	78.6%	71.4%	1.10×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.4%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.4%	63.4%	67.6%	0.94×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.6%	53.2%	46.5%	1.15×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.1%	48.7%	44.6%	1.09×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.7%	48.0%	1.01×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.0%	39.2%	44.7%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.2%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.2%	35.4%	23.5%	1.50×	2.83
4-5 goals	25.7%	30.2%	21.6%	1.40×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.0%	14.9%	10.5%	1.42×	6.72
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	0.9%	2.88×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como never behind	41.8%	48.2%	48.9%	0.99×	2.08
Roma never behind	36.5%	44.7%	45.4%	0.98×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.5%	51.7%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.5%	48.3%	43.2%	1.12×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.1%	51.4%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	47.9%	48.6%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	97.2%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	88.7%	0.93×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	78.6%	77.4%	72.2%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.9%	66.2%	75.7%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.5%	58.8%	47.2%	1.25×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	44.5%	41.2%	52.8%	0.78×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	33.1%	33.8%	24.3%	1.39×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	21.4%	22.6%	27.8%	0.81×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	11.3%	1.56×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	2.8%	2.78×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	8.2%	0.94×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.8%	92.5%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.8%	76.0%	87.0%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.2%	72.6%	62.9%	1.15×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.3%	55.4%	68.5%	0.81×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.7%	44.6%	31.5%	1.41×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.8%	27.4%	37.1%	0.74×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.2%	24.0%	13.0%	1.86×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.2%	7.5%	3.0%	2.48×	13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	0.9%	3.06×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.7%	89.0%	91.9%	0.97×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.2%	71.1%	65.7%	1.08×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.9%	68.9%	70.8%	0.97×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.1%	31.1%	29.2%	1.06×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.8%	28.9%	34.3%	0.84×	3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.3%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.6%	82.8%	78.0%	1.06×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	79.7%	82.4%	0.97×	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.5%	53.1%	43.2%	1.23×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.5%	46.9%	56.8%	0.83×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	20.3%	17.6%	1.15×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.4%	17.2%	22.0%	0.78×	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como not to score in both halves	75.2%	78.1%	76.2%	1.03×	1.28
Roma not to score in both halves	75.2%	78.1%	78.7%	0.99×	1.28
Roma to score in both halves	24.8%	21.9%	21.3%	1.03×	4.58
Como to score in both halves	24.8%	21.9%	23.8%	0.92×	4.58

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.5%	58.4%	48.6%	1.20×	1.71
Only Como scores	19.6%	16.1%	22.5%	0.71×	6.21
Only Roma scores	16.3%	16.1%	20.9%	0.77×	6.22
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.2%	8.2%	0.87×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.4%	13.2%	1.32×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.9%	17.4%	19.7%	0.88×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.08
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.5%	51.2%	43.2%	1.19×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	31.1%	33.4%	34.9%	0.96×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	18.4%	17.2%	22.0%	0.78×	5.82

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma not to win both halves	91.6%	93.9%	91.4%	1.03×	1.07
Como not to win both halves	90.4%	93.9%	90.3%	1.04×	1.07
Como to win both halves	9.6%	6.1%	9.7%	0.63×	16.37
Roma to win both halves	8.4%	6.1%	8.6%	0.71×	16.45

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win either half	56.2%	59.4%	52.5%	1.13×	1.68
Roma to win either half	51.3%	54.9%	48.4%	1.14×	1.82
Roma to win neither half	48.7%	45.1%	51.6%	0.87×	2.22
Como to win neither half	43.8%	40.6%	47.5%	0.85×	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Roma not to win to nil	83.7%	83.0%	79.1%	1.05×	1.20
Como not to win to nil	80.4%	83.0%	77.5%	1.07×	1.21
Como to win to nil	19.6%	17.0%	22.5%	0.75×	5.88
Roma to win to nil	16.3%	17.0%	20.9%	0.81×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	24.2%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14
Como by 1	20.8%	24.1%	22.4%	1.08×	4.14
Roma by 1	18.9%	16.9%	19.9%	0.85×	5.91
Como by 2	12.2%	11.8%	9.6%	1.23×	8.48
Roma by 2	10.0%	11.8%	8.5%	1.39×	8.48
Como by 3+	7.8%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.78
Roma by 3+	5.6%	7.3%	5.8%	1.25×	13.79