Como v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 28 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 12
On target
13 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.36
Goals − xG
+0.25 – -1.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
44.1%
Draw
31.6%
Sassuolo win
24.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–1.15 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.75 xGSassuolo 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 9' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 9' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 9' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 12' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 13' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 13' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.54 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 19' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 25' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 28' |
Como |
Jayden Addai | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 31' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 38' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 48' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 52' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nico Paz |
| 56' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 61' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 65' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 74' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 76' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Moro |
| 76' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Moro | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 78' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jayden Addai |
| 79' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 87' |
Como |
Nicolas Kühn | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefan Posch |
| 94' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 96' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.76 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 0.80 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Jayden Addai AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Maxence Caqueret DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.58 |
| Lucas Da Cunha Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Josh Doig DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fali Candé Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edoardo Iannoni Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |