Como v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Como

14:00 UTC

Sassuolo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 1,134h before kick-off

Como win

60.5%

model 61.3%

Draw

21.1%

model 20.7%

Sassuolo win

18.3%

model 18.0%

612118

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (245 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.9%
2-0 9.8%
1-1 9.7%
1-0 9.5%
3-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.3%	Under 2.5	40.7%
BTTS yes	55.7%	BTTS no	44.3%
Como 1+	87.2%	Como 2+	60.9%
Sassuolo 1+	63.8%	Sassuolo 2+	27.0%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Como to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 31%

52.9% fair odds 1.89

strong signal · 779 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Como or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 71%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Como carry the stronger rating, 1724 Elo against 1538.
Como have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.58.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
At home Como average 2.42 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Sassuolo were missing 1.16 expected goal involvements a match against 0.41.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Como have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.1% for the draw and 18.3% for Sassuolo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for Como and 1.02 for Sassuolo.

Why Como

Como carry the stronger rating, 1724 Elo against 1538. Como have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.58. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. At home Como average 2.42 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Sassuolo were missing 1.16 expected goal involvements a match against 0.41.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Sassuolo can win

Sassuolo have created 1.80 xG a match over their last five while Como have allowed 1.02. Away from home Sassuolo average 1.68 xG a match.

Key players

Como's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tasos Douvikas (0.47), Nico Paz (0.38), Lucas Da Cunha (0.31). Sassuolo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kieron Bowie (0.49), Armand Lauriente (0.42), Domenico Berardi (0.39).

Availability

1 of Sassuolo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Sassuolo's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Como: 61% possession, 19.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces. Sassuolo: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.37 xG a match from set pieces. Como's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Como are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LLWDWWWDWW last 10 scored 19 from 18.8 xG conceded 10 from 10.2 xG

Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWDWLLLLWD last 10 scored 13 from 18.0 xG conceded 14 from 15.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	612118	2.06–1.02	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	612118	2.05–1.02	2-1 10%	59%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win	61.3%	63.3%	39.4%	1.61×	1.58
Draw	20.7%	22.1%	26.8%	0.83×	4.53
Sassuolo to win	18.0%	19.2%	34.0%	0.57×	5.21

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & not both score	31.5%	32.7%	22.6%	1.45×	3.06
Como & both teams score	29.8%	26.4%	16.9%	1.56×	3.79
Draw & both teams score	16.1%	17.7%	18.7%	0.95×	5.64
Sassuolo & both teams score	9.8%	7.3%	13.3%	0.55×	13.62
Sassuolo & not both score	8.2%	7.3%	20.8%	0.35×	13.66
Draw & not both score	4.6%	3.7%	8.2%	0.45×	26.97

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & over 1.5	51.8%	49.0%	29.0%	1.69×	2.04
Como & over 2.5	42.0%	43.9%	22.5%	1.95×	2.28
Como & under 3.5	35.9%	37.5%	29.4%	1.27×	2.67
Como & over 3.5	25.4%	25.5%	10.1%	2.52×	3.93
Como & under 2.5	19.3%	17.6%	17.0%	1.03×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	16.1%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.70
Draw & under 2.5	14.3%	12.7%	19.9%	0.64×	7.86
Draw & under 3.5	14.3%	12.7%	19.9%	0.64×	7.86
Sassuolo & over 1.5	13.3%	12.7%	24.6%	0.52×	7.86
Sassuolo & under 3.5	12.8%	12.7%	26.6%	0.48×	7.86
Sassuolo & over 2.5	10.9%	12.7%	18.1%	0.70×	7.87
Como & under 1.5	9.5%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.40
Sassuolo & under 2.5	7.1%	7.5%	16.0%	0.47×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.41
Sassuolo & over 3.5	5.1%	7.5%	7.4%	1.00×	13.42
Draw & under 1.5	4.6%	4.6%	8.2%	0.56×	21.91
Sassuolo & under 1.5	4.7%	4.6%	9.5%	0.48×	21.91

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1UP)	74.0%	76.7%	54.7%	1.40×	1.30
Sassuolo (1UP)	36.6%	38.1%	51.1%	0.74×	2.63

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2UP)	61.3%	66.9%	41.0%	1.63×	1.50
Sassuolo (2UP)	18.0%	22.9%	36.5%	0.63×	4.37

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win 2nd half	52.9%	48.8%	34.7%	1.41×	2.05
2nd half drawn	31.0%	33.7%	35.9%	0.94×	2.97
Sassuolo to win 2nd half	16.1%	20.0%	29.5%	0.68×	4.99

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (+0.5)	82.0%	82.3%	66.0%	1.25×	1.22
Sassuolo (+2.5)	80.9%	82.2%	92.4%	0.89×	1.22
Sassuolo (+1.5)	62.3%	64.1%	83.0%	0.77×	1.56
Como (-0.5)	61.3%	64.0%	39.4%	1.63×	1.56
Sassuolo (+0.5)	38.7%	36.0%	60.6%	0.59×	2.78
Como (-1.5)	37.7%	35.9%	17.0%	2.11×	2.78
Como (-2.5)	19.1%	17.8%	7.6%	2.34×	5.63
Sassuolo (-0.5)	18.0%	17.7%	34.0%	0.52×	5.64

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede	87.2%	89.8%	71.1%	1.26×	1.11
Sassuolo clean sheet	12.8%	10.2%	28.9%	0.35×	9.81

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede in 1st half	57.7%	60.3%	41.2%	1.47×	1.66
Sassuolo clean sheet in 1st half	42.3%	39.7%	58.8%	0.67×	2.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 6.5 corners	95.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Sassuolo under 5.5 corners	90.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Sassuolo under 4.5 corners	82.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Sassuolo under 3.5 corners	68.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Sassuolo over 2.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Sassuolo under 2.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Sassuolo over 3.5 corners	31.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Sassuolo over 4.5 corners	18.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Sassuolo over 5.5 corners	9.6%	10.0%	—	—	9.97
Sassuolo over 6.5 corners	4.8%	4.4%	—	—	22.99

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Sassuolo under 2.5 goals	91.6%	92.6%	88.4%	1.05×	1.08
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals	72.9%	72.0%	65.4%	1.10×	1.39
Sassuolo over 0.5 goals	63.9%	64.2%	69.3%	0.93×	1.56
Sassuolo under 0.5 goals	36.2%	35.8%	30.7%	1.17×	2.80
Sassuolo over 1.5 goals	27.1%	28.0%	34.6%	0.81×	3.57
Sassuolo over 2.5 goals	8.4%	7.4%	11.6%	0.64×	13.55
Sassuolo over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.7%	2.9%	0.92×	37.60

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 1st half	91.0%	93.2%	90.2%	1.03×	1.07
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 1st half	60.8%	63.5%	59.0%	1.08×	1.58
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 1st half	39.2%	36.5%	41.0%	0.89×	2.74
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 1st half	9.0%	6.8%	9.8%	0.69×	14.69

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (away no bet)	74.8%	74.7%	59.5%	1.25×	1.34
Draw (away no bet)	25.2%	25.3%	40.5%	0.63×	3.95

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo even goals	56.5%	57.9%	55.7%	1.04×	1.73
Sassuolo odd goals	43.5%	42.1%	44.3%	0.95×	2.38

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.9%	79.9%	87.2%	0.92×	1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.1%	20.1%	12.8%	1.57×	4.98

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.4%	71.1%	59.6%	1.19×	1.41
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.6%	28.9%	40.4%	0.71×	3.46

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.2%	61.5%	52.8%	1.16×	1.63
Como to score 2+ in a row	52.9%	52.9%	31.1%	1.70×	1.89
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.2%	25.2%	17.3%	1.46×	3.97
Como to score 3+ in a row	24.6%	21.8%	9.7%	2.24×	4.58
Sassuolo to score 2+ in a row	18.1%	17.8%	27.7%	0.64×	5.61
Sassuolo to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	3.4%	7.7%	0.44×	29.40

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como corners (+3.5)	96.4%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Como corners (+2.5)	93.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Como corners (+1.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sassuolo corners (+3.5)	63.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Como corners (-1.5)	59.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Sassuolo corners (+2.5)	52.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Como corners (-2.5)	47.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Sassuolo corners (+1.5)	40.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Como corners (-3.5)	36.8%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Sassuolo corners (-1.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Sassuolo corners (-2.5)	6.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Sassuolo corners (-3.5)	3.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.64

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.9%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
9-11 corners	25.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.0%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	83.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	76.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	53.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	42.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	32.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	23.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 11.5 corners	17.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.7%	7.3%	11.9%	0.61×	13.74
2-0	9.8%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.74
2-1	10.0%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.73
1-0	9.5%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.74
3-0	6.7%	7.3%	3.4%	2.13×	13.75
3-1	6.8%	7.3%	3.0%	2.40×	13.75
Any other score	6.1%	7.3%	2.8%	2.62×	13.75
2-2	5.1%	7.3%	6.1%	1.20×	13.76
1-2	4.9%	1.8%	7.6%	0.24×	55.39
0-0	4.6%	1.8%	8.2%	0.22×	55.39
0-1	4.7%	1.8%	9.5%	0.19×	55.39
3-2	3.5%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.42
4-0	3.4%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.42
4-1	3.5%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.42
0-2	2.4%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.45
1-3	1.7%	1.8%	1.9%	0.95×	55.47
2-3	1.7%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.47
4-2	1.8%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.46
0-3	0.8%	1.8%	3.3%	0.55×	55.49
0-4	0.2%	1.8%	1.0%	1.78×	55.50
1-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.50
2-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
3-3	1.2%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.48
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-3	0.6%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.49
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT (DNB)	67.6%	67.1%	50.1%	1.34×	1.49
Sassuolo leading at HT (DNB)	32.4%	32.9%	49.9%	0.66×	3.04

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1X)	82.0%	80.8%	66.0%	1.22×	1.24
Como or Sassuolo (12)	79.3%	77.9%	73.2%	1.06×	1.28
Sassuolo or draw (X2)	38.7%	36.7%	60.6%	0.60×	2.73

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw at HT	79.9%	78.8%	72.6%	1.09×	1.27
Como or Sassuolo at HT	62.1%	63.2%	54.8%	1.15×	1.58
Sassuolo or draw at HT	58.0%	58.2%	72.5%	0.80×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1UP)	82.0%	83.8%	71.3%	1.17×	1.19
Sassuolo or draw (1UP)	38.7%	45.8%	66.3%	0.69×	2.18

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw in 2nd half	83.9%	80.0%	70.5%	1.13×	1.25
Como or Sassuolo in 2nd half	69.0%	66.3%	64.1%	1.03×	1.51
Sassuolo or draw in 2nd half	47.1%	51.2%	65.3%	0.78×	1.96

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.2%	57.9%	64.4%	0.90×	1.73
Neither half drawn	42.8%	42.1%	35.6%	1.18×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (DNB)	77.3%	78.0%	53.7%	1.45×	1.28
Sassuolo (DNB)	22.7%	22.0%	46.3%	0.47×	4.55

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score first	63.8%	66.9%	47.7%	1.40×	1.50
Sassuolo to score first	31.6%	31.8%	44.2%	0.72×	3.15
No goal scored	4.6%	4.1%	8.2%	0.50×	24.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.7%	56.7%	48.6%	1.17×	1.77
Not both teams to score	44.3%	43.4%	51.4%	0.84×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.0%	45.2%	36.9%	1.23×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	31.0%	34.4%	41.0%	0.84×	2.91
Not both score & over 2.5	13.3%	11.7%	10.5%	1.12×	8.52
Both score & under 2.5	9.7%	8.8%	11.9%	0.74×	11.43

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.5%	81.3%	86.9%	0.94×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	16.5%	18.7%	13.1%	1.42×	5.35

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.8%	70.4%	74.7%	0.94×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.2%	29.6%	25.3%	1.17×	3.38

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.5%	57.5%	63.1%	0.91×	1.74
Both score 2nd half only	21.8%	24.4%	20.5%	1.19×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	16.3%	18.1%	11.7%	1.54×	5.52
Both score in both halves	6.4%	6.5%	4.9%	1.31×	15.47

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.3%	79.8%	83.5%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	22.7%	20.2%	16.5%	1.22×	4.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.9%	62.9%	51.8%	1.22×	1.59
A half without a goal	39.1%	37.1%	48.2%	0.77×	2.70

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.2%	43.2%	48.0%	0.90×	2.31
4-6 goals	33.2%	31.6%	23.5%	1.35×	3.16
0-1 goals	18.8%	20.8%	27.9%	0.74×	4.82
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	0.9%	2.23×	50.81

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score exactly 1	36.8%	34.6%	34.8%	0.99×	2.89
Sassuolo to score exactly 0	36.2%	34.6%	30.7%	1.13×	2.89
Sassuolo to score exactly 2	18.7%	18.4%	23.1%	0.80×	5.44
Sassuolo to score 3+	8.4%	7.7%	11.6%	0.66×	13.05

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score 3+	33.8%	30.6%	14.4%	2.13×	3.27
Como to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.1%	24.6%	1.10×	3.70
Como to score exactly 1	26.3%	27.1%	32.3%	0.84×	3.70
Como to score exactly 0	12.8%	13.5%	28.9%	0.47×	7.42

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT	42.0%	41.8%	27.5%	1.52×	2.39
Draw at HT	37.9%	36.8%	45.2%	0.81×	2.72
Sassuolo leading at HT	20.1%	21.2%	27.4%	0.77×	4.72

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como -1: 2	38.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Como -1: 1	37.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Como -1: X	23.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:1)	38.7%	30.7%	60.6%	0.51×	3.26
Como (0:1)	37.7%	30.6%	17.0%	1.79×	3.27
Draw (0:1)	23.6%	24.4%	22.5%	1.09×	4.09

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:2)	62.3%	69.5%	83.0%	0.84×	1.44
Como (0:2)	19.1%	16.4%	7.6%	2.16×	6.10
Draw (0:2)	18.7%	16.4%	9.6%	1.71×	6.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:3)	80.9%	83.2%	92.4%	0.90×	1.20
Draw (0:3)	11.0%	12.4%	4.5%	2.72×	8.10
Como (0:3)	8.0%	6.9%	3.2%	2.20×	14.42

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:4)	92.0%	94.0%	96.8%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.2%	7.0%	2.3%	3.07×	14.33
Como (0:4)	2.9%	1.3%	1.0%	1.24×	79.88

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1:0)	82.0%	80.5%	66.0%	1.22×	1.24
Draw (1:0)	11.7%	11.7%	19.9%	0.59×	8.51
Sassuolo (1:0)	6.3%	8.5%	14.1%	0.60×	11.75

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2:0)	93.7%	91.7%	85.9%	1.07×	1.09
Draw (2:0)	4.6%	2.7%	8.5%	0.32×	36.70
Sassuolo (2:0)	1.7%	2.7%	5.8%	0.46×	37.39

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.9%	48.7%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	30.5%	25.4%	26.8%	0.95×	3.93
Halves equal	23.6%	23.2%	26.8%	0.87×	4.31

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to concede	63.9%	66.2%	69.3%	0.95×	1.51
Como clean sheet	36.2%	33.8%	30.7%	1.10×	2.96

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como clean sheet in 1st half	60.8%	63.3%	59.0%	1.07×	1.58
Como to concede in 1st half	39.2%	36.7%	41.0%	0.89×	2.73

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 2.5 corners	83.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Como over 3.5 corners	70.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Como under 6.5 corners	69.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Como under 5.5 corners	57.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Como over 4.5 corners	56.0%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Como under 4.5 corners	44.0%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Como over 5.5 corners	42.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Como over 6.5 corners	30.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Como under 3.5 corners	29.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Como under 2.5 corners	17.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 0.5 goals	87.2%	87.8%	71.1%	1.24×	1.14
Como under 3.5 goals	84.7%	82.5%	95.5%	0.86×	1.21
Como under 2.5 goals	66.2%	68.7%	85.6%	0.80×	1.46
Como over 1.5 goals	60.9%	62.6%	38.9%	1.61×	1.60
Como under 1.5 goals	39.1%	37.4%	61.1%	0.61×	2.67
Como over 2.5 goals	33.8%	31.3%	14.4%	2.17×	3.20
Como over 3.5 goals	15.3%	17.5%	4.5%	3.85×	5.71
Como under 0.5 goals	12.8%	12.2%	28.9%	0.42×	8.19

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 1.5 in 1st half	78.7%	79.3%	90.2%	0.88×	1.26
Como over 0.5 in 1st half	57.7%	60.1%	41.2%	1.46×	1.67
Como under 0.5 in 1st half	42.3%	39.9%	58.8%	0.68×	2.50
Como over 1.5 in 1st half	21.3%	20.7%	9.8%	2.10×	4.84

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (home no bet)	46.4%	51.3%	55.9%	0.92×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	53.6%	48.7%	44.1%	1.11×	2.05

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como even goals	50.8%	50.2%	56.6%	0.89×	1.99
Como odd goals	49.2%	49.8%	43.4%	1.15×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.7%	28.0%	34.3%	0.82×	3.57
HT 1-0	22.1%	22.6%	18.3%	1.24×	4.42
HT 0-1	12.8%	11.2%	18.4%	0.61×	8.93
HT 1-1	11.0%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.95
HT 2-0	9.5%	7.7%	5.6%	1.39×	12.97
Any other HT score	7.0%	7.7%	3.0%	2.54×	13.01
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.5%	2.3%	1.11×	39.73
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.5%	5.4%	0.46×	39.82
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.84
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.5%	0.6%	3.97×	39.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como at HT / Como at FT	37.2%	41.4%	21.3%	1.94×	2.42
Draw at HT / Como at FT	20.1%	21.4%	15.8%	1.35×	4.68
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.8%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.36
Sassuolo at HT / Sassuolo at FT	10.8%	12.0%	19.2%	0.62×	8.37
Draw at HT / Sassuolo at FT	6.1%	6.6%	13.0%	0.50×	15.25
Sassuolo at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.5%	5.9%	1.10×	15.27
Sassuolo at HT / Como at FT	4.1%	3.4%	2.5%	1.35×	29.34
Como at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.35
Como at HT / Sassuolo at FT	1.0%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.47

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score last	63.8%	60.3%	48.4%	1.25×	1.66
Sassuolo to score last	31.6%	35.7%	43.6%	0.82×	2.80
No goal scored	4.6%	4.1%	8.2%	0.50×	24.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.4%	95.9%	91.8%	1.05×	1.04
Como to lead by 1 at any time	74.0%	77.1%	54.7%	1.41×	1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.4%	59.5%	42.6%	1.40×	1.68
Como to lead by 2 at any time	44.7%	42.2%	22.9%	1.84×	2.37
Sassuolo to lead by 1 at any time	36.6%	37.2%	51.1%	0.73×	2.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.9%	19.9%	14.5%	1.37×	5.04
Como to lead by 3 at any time	22.2%	19.8%	8.3%	2.37×	5.05
Sassuolo to lead by 2 at any time	11.0%	11.3%	20.1%	0.56×	8.85
Sassuolo to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	2.6%	6.3%	0.41×	38.36

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como most corners	71.0%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Sassuolo most corners	19.2%	19.1%	—	—	5.23
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.4%	78.8%	71.3%	1.11×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.7%	78.8%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.0%	73.6%	69.4%	1.06×	1.36
2-4 goals	61.4%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
1-3 goals	58.5%	58.8%	67.7%	0.87×	1.70
3-6 goals	55.6%	58.7%	46.5%	1.26×	1.70
3-5 goals	50.2%	52.3%	44.6%	1.17×	1.91
2-3 goals	44.2%	43.6%	48.0%	0.91×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.6%	38.9%	36.1%	1.08×	2.57
1-2 goals	36.1%	38.8%	44.7%	0.87×	2.58
4-6 goals	33.2%	34.1%	23.5%	1.45×	2.93
4-5 goals	27.8%	30.5%	21.6%	1.41×	3.28
5-6 goals	16.0%	18.1%	10.5%	1.72×	5.54
7+ goals	3.7%	2.0%	0.9%	2.32×	48.87

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como never behind	58.7%	63.1%	48.9%	1.29×	1.58
Sassuolo never behind	21.3%	23.8%	45.3%	0.53×	4.20

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.3%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.7%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.4%	95.6%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.9%	92.9%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.2%	80.9%	72.1%	1.12×	1.24
Under 4.5 goals	80.3%	80.9%	88.8%	0.91×	1.24
Under 3.5 goals	63.1%	61.6%	75.8%	0.81×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.3%	57.8%	47.2%	1.22×	1.73
Under 2.5 goals	40.7%	42.2%	52.8%	0.80×	2.37
Over 3.5 goals	36.9%	38.4%	24.2%	1.59×	2.60
Over 4.5 goals	19.7%	19.1%	11.2%	1.70×	5.24
Under 1.5 goals	18.8%	19.1%	27.9%	0.68×	5.25
Over 5.5 goals	9.1%	7.1%	2.8%	2.55×	14.14
Under 0.5 goals	4.6%	4.4%	8.2%	0.54×	22.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.8%	88.2%	97.0%	0.91×	1.13
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.2%	76.5%	87.1%	0.88×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.9%	76.4%	62.9%	1.22×	1.31
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.4%	53.1%	68.5%	0.77×	1.88
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.6%	46.9%	31.5%	1.49×	2.13
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.1%	23.6%	37.1%	0.63×	4.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.8%	23.5%	12.9%	1.82×	4.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.2%	11.8%	3.0%	3.90×	8.46
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	0.9%	3.10×	35.84

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.3%	83.8%	91.9%	0.91×	1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.3%	72.5%	65.7%	1.10×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.6%	63.0%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.4%	37.0%	29.2%	1.27×	2.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.7%	27.5%	34.3%	0.80×	3.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.7%	16.2%	8.1%	2.00×	6.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	82.1%	77.9%	1.05×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.3%	80.2%	82.3%	0.97×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.7%	19.8%	17.7%	1.12×	5.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	17.9%	22.1%	0.81×	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to score in both halves	84.1%	81.6%	78.8%	1.04×	1.23
Como not to score in both halves	59.7%	60.3%	76.3%	0.79×	1.66
Como to score in both halves	40.3%	39.7%	23.7%	1.67×	2.52
Sassuolo to score in both halves	15.9%	18.4%	21.2%	0.87×	5.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.7%	57.7%	48.6%	1.19×	1.73
Only Como scores	31.5%	36.0%	22.6%	1.59×	2.78
Only Sassuolo scores	8.2%	6.7%	20.8%	0.32×	15.00
Neither team scores	4.6%	3.9%	8.2%	0.48×	25.41

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 2 goals	21.9%	21.5%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	18.6%	13.1%	1.41×	5.39
Exactly 1 goals	14.2%	12.4%	19.8%	0.62×	8.08
Exactly 5 goals	10.6%	12.3%	8.6%	1.44×	8.10
6 or more goals	9.1%	7.6%	2.8%	2.75×	13.11
Exactly 0 goals	4.6%	4.4%	8.2%	0.53×	22.82

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	47.4%	43.2%	1.10×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	30.9%	33.1%	34.8%	0.95×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	18.4%	22.1%	0.83×	5.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win both halves	96.8%	96.7%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Como not to win both halves	77.8%	80.1%	90.3%	0.89×	1.25
Como to win both halves	22.2%	19.9%	9.7%	2.05×	5.02
Sassuolo to win both halves	3.2%	3.3%	8.6%	0.39×	30.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win either half	72.7%	72.3%	52.5%	1.38×	1.38
Sassuolo to win neither half	67.1%	67.2%	51.6%	1.30×	1.49
Sassuolo to win either half	32.9%	32.8%	48.4%	0.68×	3.05
Como to win neither half	27.3%	27.7%	47.5%	0.58×	3.61

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win to nil	91.8%	92.3%	79.2%	1.17×	1.08
Como not to win to nil	68.5%	64.9%	77.4%	0.84×	1.54
Como to win to nil	31.5%	35.1%	22.6%	1.55×	2.85
Sassuolo to win to nil	8.2%	7.7%	20.8%	0.37×	12.98

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como by 1	23.6%	23.8%	22.5%	1.06×	4.21
Draw	20.7%	23.7%	26.8%	0.89×	4.22
Como by 3+	19.1%	17.0%	7.6%	2.24×	5.88
Como by 2	18.7%	17.0%	9.6%	1.77×	5.89
Sassuolo by 1	11.7%	11.8%	19.9%	0.59×	8.44
Sassuolo by 2	4.6%	2.8%	8.5%	0.34×	35.12
Sassuolo by 3+	1.7%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	35.54