Como v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Como

14:00 UTC

Sassuolo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 27h before kick-off

Como win

62.9%

model 64.3%

Draw

18.6%

model 19.2%

Sassuolo win

18.5%

model 16.5%

631918

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.8%
2-0 9.4%
1-1 8.8%
1-0 8.3%
3-1 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.9%	Under 2.5	36.1%
BTTS yes	58.1%	BTTS no	41.9%
Como 1+	89.4%	Como 2+	65.6%
Sassuolo 1+	65.0%	Sassuolo 2+	28.2%

Expected goals 2.24 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

96/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Como to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 32%

59.4% fair odds 1.68

strong signal · 721 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Como or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 72%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Como carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1539.
Como have created 2.20 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.89.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Como average 2.69 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Como have an estimated 62.9% win probability, against 18.6% for the draw and 18.5% for Sassuolo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.24 for Como and 1.05 for Sassuolo.

Why Como

Como carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1539. Como have created 2.20 xG a match over their last five while Sassuolo have allowed 1.89. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Como average 2.69 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Sassuolo can win

Sassuolo have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Como have allowed 1.45. Away from home Sassuolo average 1.94 xG a match.

Key players

Como's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tasos Douvikas (0.48), Nico Paz (0.40), Assane Diao (0.32). Sassuolo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Armand Lauriente (0.43), Domenico Berardi (0.38), Andrea Pinamonti (0.34).

Availability

1 of Como's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Como's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Sassuolo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Sassuolo's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Como: 62% possession, 22.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces. Sassuolo: 49% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces. Como's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Como are the model's most likely outcome at 62.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Como are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWDWWWLDW last 10 scored 18 from 22.0 xG conceded 8 from 14.5 xG

Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLLLWDWLDL last 10 scored 15 from 18.8 xG conceded 20 from 18.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	641917	2.24–1.05	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	602119	2.04–1.06	2-1 10%	60%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win	62.1%	58.2%	40.1%	1.45×	1.72
Draw	20.4%	24.4%	26.4%	0.93×	4.09
Sassuolo to win	17.5%	19.4%	33.6%	0.58×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & not both score	31.8%	29.6%	22.6%	1.31×	3.38
Como & both teams score	30.3%	29.6%	17.6%	1.68×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.9%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.57
Sassuolo & both teams score	9.6%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.00
Sassuolo & not both score	7.9%	8.3%	20.5%	0.41×	12.01
Draw & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & over 1.5	52.7%	48.9%	30.0%	1.63×	2.05
Como & over 2.5	42.9%	40.3%	23.4%	1.72×	2.48
Como & under 3.5	36.0%	34.9%	29.5%	1.18×	2.87
Como & over 3.5	26.1%	26.1%	10.7%	2.44×	3.84
Como & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.0%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.0%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Sassuolo & over 1.5	13.0%	12.8%	24.6%	0.52×	7.79
Sassuolo & under 3.5	12.5%	12.8%	26.3%	0.49×	7.79
Sassuolo & over 2.5	10.7%	12.8%	18.1%	0.71×	7.79
Como & under 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Sassuolo & under 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Sassuolo & over 3.5	5.0%	7.9%	7.4%	1.06×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81
Sassuolo & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1UP)	74.6%	75.7%	55.3%	1.37×	1.32
Sassuolo (1UP)	36.2%	34.0%	50.4%	0.67×	2.95

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2UP)	62.1%	68.4%	41.9%	1.63×	1.46
Sassuolo (2UP)	17.5%	17.3%	36.1%	0.48×	5.79

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win 2nd half	53.5%	51.3%	34.9%	1.47×	1.95
2nd half drawn	30.7%	34.3%	35.1%	0.98×	2.92
Sassuolo to win 2nd half	15.8%	18.0%	30.1%	0.60×	5.55

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.4%	91.5%	85.0%	1.08×	1.09
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.6%	54.7%	49.9%	1.09×	1.83
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.4%	45.3%	50.1%	0.91×	2.21
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.6%	8.5%	15.0%	0.56×	11.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.3%	73.9%	53.8%	1.37×	1.35
Como under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	70.5%	81.4%	0.87×	1.42
Como over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	29.5%	18.6%	1.58×	3.39
Como under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.7%	26.1%	46.2%	0.57×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (+0.5)	82.5%	82.5%	66.4%	1.24×	1.21
Sassuolo (+2.5)	80.3%	82.5%	92.3%	0.89×	1.21
Como (-0.5)	62.1%	62.9%	40.1%	1.57×	1.59
Sassuolo (+1.5)	61.5%	62.9%	82.5%	0.76×	1.59
Como (-1.5)	38.5%	37.1%	17.5%	2.12×	2.70
Sassuolo (+0.5)	37.9%	37.1%	59.9%	0.62×	2.70
Como (-2.5)	19.7%	17.5%	7.7%	2.28×	5.72
Sassuolo (-0.5)	17.5%	17.5%	33.6%	0.52×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede	87.6%	86.3%	71.7%	1.20×	1.16
Sassuolo clean sheet	12.4%	13.7%	28.3%	0.48×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede in 1st half	58.3%	57.1%	42.1%	1.35×	1.75
Sassuolo clean sheet in 1st half	41.7%	42.9%	57.9%	0.74×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to concede in 2nd half	70.3%	70.7%	53.8%	1.31×	1.41
Sassuolo clean sheet in 2nd half	29.7%	29.3%	46.2%	0.63×	3.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 6.5 corners	93.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Sassuolo under 5.5 corners	87.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sassuolo under 4.5 corners	77.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Sassuolo under 3.5 corners	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sassuolo over 2.5 corners	55.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sassuolo under 2.5 corners	44.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Sassuolo over 3.5 corners	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sassuolo over 4.5 corners	22.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Sassuolo over 5.5 corners	12.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Sassuolo over 6.5 corners	6.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Sassuolo under 2.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Sassuolo under 1.5 goals	73.1%	71.9%	64.9%	1.11×	1.39
Sassuolo over 0.5 goals	63.7%	63.2%	69.6%	0.91×	1.58
Sassuolo under 0.5 goals	36.3%	36.8%	30.4%	1.21×	2.72
Sassuolo over 1.5 goals	26.9%	28.1%	35.1%	0.80×	3.56
Sassuolo over 2.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	11.9%	0.64×	13.05
Sassuolo over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.5%	2.9%	0.87×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo under 1.5 in 1st half	91.1%	94.0%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Sassuolo under 0.5 in 1st half	60.9%	63.2%	58.8%	1.08×	1.58
Sassuolo over 0.5 in 1st half	39.1%	36.8%	41.2%	0.89×	2.72
Sassuolo over 1.5 in 1st half	8.9%	6.0%	10.1%	0.60×	16.56

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo scores equally in both	46.2%	47.8%	43.3%	1.10×	2.09
Sassuolo scores more in 2nd half	27.6%	26.2%	32.9%	0.80×	3.81
Sassuolo scores more in 1st half	26.2%	26.2%	23.9%	1.10×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (away no bet)	75.3%	73.5%	60.3%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.7%	26.5%	39.7%	0.67×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo even goals	56.6%	56.9%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Sassuolo odd goals	43.4%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.4%	81.3%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.6%	18.7%	12.7%	1.47×	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.9%	67.3%	60.3%	1.12×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.1%	32.7%	39.7%	0.82×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.8%	60.2%	53.4%	1.13×	1.66
Como to score 2+ in a row	53.8%	51.1%	31.8%	1.60×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.8%	25.2%	17.9%	1.41×	3.97
Como to score 3+ in a row	25.4%	25.1%	10.1%	2.49×	3.98
Sassuolo to score 2+ in a row	17.9%	16.3%	27.7%	0.59×	6.15
Sassuolo to score 3+ in a row	3.8%	2.6%	7.9%	0.33×	38.41

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como corners (+3.5)	96.0%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Como corners (+2.5)	92.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Como corners (+1.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Como corners (-1.5)	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sassuolo corners (+3.5)	59.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Como corners (-2.5)	51.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sassuolo corners (+2.5)	48.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Como corners (-3.5)	40.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Sassuolo corners (+1.5)	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sassuolo corners (-1.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Sassuolo corners (-2.5)	7.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Sassuolo corners (-3.5)	4.0%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	24.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	41.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	37.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	18.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	9.4%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.50
1-1	9.5%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.50
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.50
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
3-0	6.8%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
3-1	6.9%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
Any other score	6.4%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.51
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.29
0-0	4.5%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.29
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.29
0-2	2.3%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.31
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.32
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.32
2-3	1.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
3-2	3.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-0	3.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.30
4-1	3.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.14×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2nd half DNB)	77.2%	79.8%	53.7%	1.49×	1.25
Sassuolo (2nd half DNB)	22.8%	20.2%	46.3%	0.44×	4.96

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT (DNB)	68.2%	74.1%	51.2%	1.45×	1.35
Sassuolo leading at HT (DNB)	31.8%	25.9%	48.8%	0.53×	3.86

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1X)	82.5%	80.6%	66.4%	1.21×	1.24
Como or Sassuolo (12)	79.6%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Sassuolo or draw (X2)	37.9%	41.8%	59.9%	0.70×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw at HT	80.2%	84.1%	72.9%	1.15×	1.19
Como or Sassuolo at HT	62.3%	61.4%	55.5%	1.11×	1.63
Sassuolo or draw at HT	57.5%	57.1%	71.5%	0.80×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1UP)	82.5%	88.6%	71.7%	1.24×	1.13
Sassuolo or draw (1UP)	37.9%	41.2%	65.4%	0.63×	2.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw in 2nd half	84.2%	82.0%	69.9%	1.17×	1.22
Como or Sassuolo in 2nd half	69.3%	65.7%	64.9%	1.01×	1.52
Sassuolo or draw in 2nd half	46.5%	48.7%	65.1%	0.75×	2.05

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.8%	58.4%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Neither half drawn	43.2%	41.6%	36.5%	1.14×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (DNB)	78.0%	74.8%	54.4%	1.37×	1.34
Sassuolo (DNB)	22.0%	25.2%	45.6%	0.55×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score first	64.3%	64.7%	48.6%	1.33×	1.55
Sassuolo to score first	31.2%	27.3%	43.6%	0.63×	3.66
No goal scored	4.5%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.23

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.8%	55.0%	49.2%	1.12×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.2%	45.0%	50.8%	0.89×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	46.3%	44.3%	37.5%	1.18×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	30.6%	34.5%	40.1%	0.86×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	13.6%	12.4%	10.8%	1.14×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.5%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.4%	82.6%	86.4%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.6%	17.4%	13.6%	1.28×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.6%	73.6%	74.8%	0.98×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.4%	26.4%	25.2%	1.05×	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.3%	59.8%	62.7%	0.95×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	21.3%	20.4%	1.04×	4.70
Both score 1st half only	16.3%	14.9%	12.2%	1.22×	6.70
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.2%	81.0%	83.0%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score by HT	22.8%	19.0%	17.0%	1.11×	5.26

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.4%	59.6%	52.8%	1.13×	1.68
A half without a goal	38.6%	40.4%	47.2%	0.86×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.0%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.7%	30.7%	23.9%	1.29×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.4%	20.2%	27.0%	0.75×	4.94
7+ goals	3.9%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	34.7%	1.04×	2.78
Sassuolo to score exactly 0	36.3%	35.9%	30.4%	1.18×	2.78
Sassuolo to score exactly 2	18.7%	19.6%	23.3%	0.84×	5.11
Sassuolo to score 3+	8.3%	8.6%	11.9%	0.72×	11.69

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score 3+	34.7%	32.6%	15.1%	2.15×	3.07
Como to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77
Como to score exactly 1	25.9%	26.5%	32.1%	0.83×	3.77
Como to score exactly 0	12.4%	14.3%	28.3%	0.51×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT	42.5%	42.9%	28.5%	1.51×	2.33
Draw at HT	37.7%	38.6%	44.5%	0.87×	2.59
Sassuolo leading at HT	19.8%	15.9%	27.1%	0.59×	6.29

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como -1: 1	38.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Como -1: 2	37.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Como -1: X	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (0:1)	38.5%	37.4%	17.5%	2.13×	2.68
Sassuolo (0:1)	37.9%	37.3%	59.9%	0.62×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.5%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:2)	61.5%	67.0%	82.5%	0.81×	1.49
Como (0:2)	19.7%	15.3%	7.7%	1.99×	6.53
Draw (0:2)	18.8%	15.3%	10.0%	1.54×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:3)	80.3%	85.3%	92.3%	0.92×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.3%	9.9%	4.7%	2.12×	10.07
Como (0:3)	8.4%	5.8%	3.1%	1.86×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo (0:4)	91.6%	94.5%	96.9%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.4%	4.6%	2.3%	2.01×	21.80
Como (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1:0)	82.5%	81.3%	66.4%	1.23×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.4%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.88
Sassuolo (1:0)	6.1%	6.9%	14.4%	0.48×	14.52

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2:0)	93.9%	94.0%	85.6%	1.10×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	8.6%	0.27×	43.55
Sassuolo (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.73

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.0%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	30.5%	29.2%	27.0%	1.08×	3.42
Halves equal	23.4%	24.5%	26.9%	0.91×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to concede	63.7%	63.7%	69.6%	0.91×	1.57
Como clean sheet	36.3%	36.3%	30.4%	1.20×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como clean sheet in 1st half	60.9%	63.2%	58.8%	1.07×	1.58
Como to concede in 1st half	39.1%	36.8%	41.2%	0.89×	2.72

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como clean sheet in 2nd half	59.6%	55.1%	49.9%	1.10×	1.82
Como to concede in 2nd half	40.4%	44.9%	50.1%	0.90×	2.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 2.5 corners	86.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Como over 3.5 corners	75.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Como over 4.5 corners	63.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Como under 6.5 corners	61.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Como over 5.5 corners	50.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Como under 5.5 corners	49.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Como over 6.5 corners	38.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Como under 4.5 corners	37.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Como under 3.5 corners	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Como under 2.5 corners	13.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como over 0.5 goals	87.6%	87.3%	71.7%	1.22×	1.15
Como under 3.5 goals	84.1%	82.2%	95.3%	0.86×	1.22
Como under 2.5 goals	65.3%	67.9%	84.9%	0.80×	1.47
Como over 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.6%	39.7%	1.60×	1.57
Como under 1.5 goals	38.3%	36.4%	60.3%	0.60×	2.75
Como over 2.5 goals	34.7%	32.1%	15.1%	2.12×	3.12
Como over 3.5 goals	15.9%	17.8%	4.7%	3.80×	5.62
Como under 0.5 goals	12.4%	12.7%	28.3%	0.45×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 1.5 in 1st half	78.2%	77.0%	89.3%	0.86×	1.30
Como over 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	56.8%	42.1%	1.35×	1.76
Como under 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	43.2%	57.9%	0.75×	2.32
Como over 1.5 in 1st half	21.8%	23.0%	10.7%	2.15×	4.35

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como scores more in 2nd half	43.9%	42.3%	36.3%	1.17×	2.36
Como scores equally in both	29.5%	27.8%	41.7%	0.67×	3.60
Como scores more in 1st half	26.6%	27.7%	22.2%	1.25×	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.8%	51.4%	44.0%	1.17×	1.95
Sassuolo (home no bet)	46.2%	48.6%	56.0%	0.87×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como even goals	50.8%	50.7%	56.2%	0.90×	1.97
Como odd goals	49.2%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.4%	28.2%	33.7%	0.84×	3.55
HT 1-0	22.2%	24.4%	18.5%	1.32×	4.11
HT 0-1	12.6%	11.0%	18.1%	0.61×	9.11
HT 1-1	11.0%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.12
HT 2-0	9.7%	6.9%	5.8%	1.20×	14.44
Any other HT score	7.2%	6.9%	3.4%	2.06×	14.47
HT 2-1	4.8%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	41.98
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.09
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.12
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como at HT / Como at FT	37.8%	41.5%	22.1%	1.88×	2.41
Draw at HT / Como at FT	20.1%	21.6%	15.8%	1.36×	4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.6%	12.6%	16.1%	0.79×	7.91
Sassuolo at HT / Sassuolo at FT	10.6%	12.6%	19.1%	0.66×	7.91
Draw at HT / Sassuolo at FT	6.0%	6.0%	12.8%	0.47×	16.65
Sassuolo at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.68
Sassuolo at HT / Como at FT	4.1%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.64
Como at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.65
Como at HT / Sassuolo at FT	1.0%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.75

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score last	64.3%	62.4%	48.1%	1.30×	1.60
Sassuolo to score last	31.2%	32.5%	44.1%	0.74×	3.08
No goal scored	4.5%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.23

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.5%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Como to lead by 1 at any time	74.6%	74.4%	55.3%	1.34×	1.34
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.0%	54.8%	43.7%	1.26×	1.82
Como to lead by 2 at any time	45.6%	44.5%	24.0%	1.85×	2.25
Sassuolo to lead by 1 at any time	36.2%	34.6%	50.4%	0.69×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.5%	25.5%	15.1%	1.68×	3.93
Como to lead by 3 at any time	22.9%	19.7%	8.8%	2.24×	5.09
Sassuolo to lead by 2 at any time	10.7%	10.4%	20.2%	0.52×	9.59
Sassuolo to lead by 3 at any time	2.6%	1.6%	6.5%	0.25×	62.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como most corners	72.5%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Sassuolo most corners	18.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.7%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.3%	78.7%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	61.6%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.9%	59.1%	67.5%	0.88×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.1%	59.1%	47.3%	1.25×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.5%	53.2%	45.3%	1.17×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.0%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	36.7%	1.07×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.6%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.7%	35.2%	23.9%	1.47×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.1%	30.2%	21.8%	1.38×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.8%	10.7%	1.76×	5.31
7+ goals	3.9%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como never behind	59.3%	62.7%	49.6%	1.27×	1.59
Sassuolo never behind	20.9%	24.5%	44.7%	0.55×	4.09

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.6%	56.5%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	50.7%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	49.3%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.5%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.8%	77.3%	88.5%	0.87×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.4%	61.7%	75.3%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.6%	48.1%	1.22×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.4%	51.9%	0.80×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	37.6%	38.3%	24.7%	1.55×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.2%	22.7%	11.5%	1.97×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	17.7%	27.0%	0.66×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	3.0%	2.58×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.5%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.4%	86.7%	96.7%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.5%	75.9%	64.1%	1.18×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.6%	75.9%	86.7%	0.87×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.6%	51.9%	67.7%	0.77×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.4%	48.1%	32.3%	1.49×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.4%	24.1%	13.3%	1.82×	4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.5%	24.1%	35.9%	0.67×	4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.6%	13.3%	3.3%	4.04×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.0%	85.9%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.6%	71.7%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.2%	63.1%	70.1%	0.90×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.8%	36.9%	29.9%	1.23×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.4%	28.3%	33.7%	0.84×	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.0%	14.1%	8.8%	1.61×	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.3%	83.2%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.9%	77.7%	82.4%	0.94×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	53.0%	43.1%	1.23×	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	47.0%	56.9%	0.83×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.1%	22.3%	17.6%	1.27×	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.7%	16.8%	21.4%	0.78×	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to score in both halves	84.2%	84.4%	78.4%	1.08×	1.19
Como not to score in both halves	59.0%	58.2%	75.8%	0.77×	1.72
Como to score in both halves	41.0%	41.8%	24.3%	1.72×	2.39
Sassuolo to score in both halves	15.8%	15.6%	21.6%	0.72×	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.8%	58.6%	49.2%	1.19×	1.71
Only Como scores	31.8%	33.3%	22.6%	1.48×	3.00
Only Sassuolo scores	7.9%	7.1%	20.5%	0.35×	14.03
Neither team scores	4.5%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.66

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.6%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.4%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.9%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.8%	12.1%	8.6%	1.40×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	3.0%	2.54×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.5%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.37

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	35.9%	36.5%	0.98×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.4%	28.4%	33.7%	0.84×	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	16.0%	15.6%	8.8%	1.78×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.1%	43.1%	1.19×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.7%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	17.7%	16.4%	21.4%	0.77×	6.08

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win both halves	96.9%	97.2%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Como not to win both halves	77.3%	75.4%	89.9%	0.84×	1.33
Como to win both halves	22.8%	24.6%	10.1%	2.44×	4.06
Sassuolo to win both halves	3.1%	2.8%	8.9%	0.32×	35.52

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win either half	73.3%	73.1%	53.3%	1.37×	1.37
Sassuolo to win neither half	67.5%	67.7%	51.6%	1.31×	1.48
Sassuolo to win either half	32.5%	32.3%	48.4%	0.67×	3.10
Como to win neither half	26.7%	26.9%	46.7%	0.58×	3.71

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sassuolo not to win to nil	92.1%	92.1%	79.5%	1.16×	1.09
Como not to win to nil	68.2%	69.7%	77.4%	0.90×	1.44
Como to win to nil	31.8%	30.3%	22.6%	1.34×	3.30
Sassuolo to win to nil	7.9%	7.9%	20.5%	0.39×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como by 1	23.5%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Draw	20.4%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Como by 3+	19.7%	17.1%	7.7%	2.22×	5.86
Como by 2	18.8%	17.1%	10.0%	1.71×	5.87
Sassuolo by 1	11.4%	11.8%	19.3%	0.61×	8.51
Sassuolo by 2	4.4%	2.7%	8.6%	0.31×	36.77
Sassuolo by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.85