Como v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 7
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+2.85 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
60.1%
Draw
23.5%
Torino win
16.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.71–0.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.10 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 3.15 xGTorino 0.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 3' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 7' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 12' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 15' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álex Valle |
| 17' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Che Adams |
| 18' |
Torino |
Adrien Tameze | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emirhan Ilkhan |
| 24' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 27' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 28' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jean Butez |
| 30' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 32' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 44' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 44' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 53' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 58' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 63' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
| 65' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Martin Baturina |
| 69' |
Como |
Nicolas Kühn | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Maxence Caqueret |
| 71' |
Torino |
Cesare Casadei | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 75' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Como |
Nicolas Kühn | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 89' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Che Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Valentino Lazaro ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marcus Pedersen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Guillermo Maripán Sub | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Cyril Ngonge FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adrien Tameze DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Faustino Anjorin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Rafael Obrador Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Duván Zapata Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.92 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.27 | 0.94 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.21 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 75 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.33 | 0.08 | 1.41 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Martin Baturina AML | 70 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Maxence Caqueret Sub | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alberto Moreno Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |