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Coventry v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated

Shots
14 – 22
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
12 – 14
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.89
Goals − xG
-1.07 – +2.19

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Coventry win
28.0%
Draw
24.9%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
47.0%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.8%
  2. 0-1 10.2%
  3. 1-2 9.3%
  4. 0-2 8.0%
  5. 1-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.551.7% Under 2.548.3%
BTTS yes54.6% BTTS no45.4%
Coventry 1+68.7% Coventry 2+32.4%
Brighton and Hove Albion 1+79.4% Brighton and Hove Albion 2+46.9%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
80/100
Model agreement
85%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1627 Elo against 1475.
  • Brighton and Hove Albion have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Coventry have allowed 1.50.
  • Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 1.62 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.85).
  • Coventry have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Brighton and Hove Albion have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 28.0% for Coventry and 24.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.16 for Coventry and 1.58 for Brighton and Hove Albion.

Why Coventry

Coventry have created 1.08 xG a match over their last five while Brighton and Hove Albion have allowed 1.57. At home Coventry average 1.18 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Brighton and Hove Albion were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.30.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 24.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Brighton and Hove Albion can win

Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1627 Elo against 1475. Brighton and Hove Albion have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Coventry have allowed 1.50. Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 1.62 xG a match.

Key players

Coventry's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Taiwo Awoniyi (0.31), Ellis Simms (0.21), Jack Rudoni (0.18). Brighton and Hove Albion's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danny Welbeck (0.38), Jack Hinshelwood (0.30), Pascal Groß (0.29).

Availability

1 of Coventry's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Brighton and Hove Albion's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Coventry: 42% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 13.7 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Brighton and Hove Albion: 67% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·

Brighton and Hove Albion are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Coventry are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLWWL last 7 scored 6 from 7.8 xG conceded 14 from 11.8 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWLDWWWW last 10 scored 26 from 21.9 xG conceded 9 from 13.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend 1.16–1.58 0% 0% 0% Away ✓
dc-goals 0.85–1.61 1-1 13% 44% 47% Away ✓
dc-xg 1.46–1.25 1-1 12% 51% 55% Home ✗
dc-xg-oos 1.22–1.17 1-1 13% 43% 49% Home ✗
deep 1.42–1.27 1-1 12% 50% 54% Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to win 40.7% 42.9% 43.1% 1.00× 2.33
Brighton and Hove Albion to win 33.5% 30.6% 32.3% 0.95× 3.27
Draw 25.8% 27.7% 24.7% 1.12× 3.61
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry & not both score 21.4% 21.8% 20.3% 1.07× 4.60
Coventry & both teams score 19.3% 18.0% 22.9% 0.79× 5.55
Draw & both teams score 19.0% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.55
Brighton and Hove Albion & not both score 17.3% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.55
Brighton and Hove Albion & both teams score 16.2% 18.0% 15.5% 1.16× 5.55
Draw & not both score 6.8% 8.4% 4.9% 1.72× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry & over 1.5 31.0% 31.0% 36.7% 0.85× 3.22
Coventry & under 3.5 28.5% 25.9% 26.8% 0.97× 3.86
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 1.5 24.9% 21.6% 25.4% 0.85× 4.63
Coventry & over 2.5 24.2% 21.6% 30.2% 0.72× 4.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 3.5 24.1% 21.6% 21.7% 1.00× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 19.0% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.57
Draw & under 2.5 19.0% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.57
Draw & under 3.5 19.0% 18.0% 16.3% 1.10× 5.57
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 2.5 19.4% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.57
Coventry & under 2.5 16.5% 18.0% 13.0% 1.38× 5.57
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 2.5 14.1% 12.9% 12.4% 1.04× 7.77
Coventry & over 3.5 12.2% 12.9% 16.4% 0.79× 7.78
Coventry & under 1.5 9.7% 8.0% 6.5% 1.23× 12.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 3.5 9.4% 8.0% 10.7% 0.75× 12.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 1.5 8.6% 8.0% 6.9% 1.15× 12.56
Draw & under 1.5 6.8% 8.0% 4.9% 1.64× 12.56
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 8.0% 8.5% 0.93× 12.56
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 8.0% 8.5% 0.93× 12.56
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (1UP) 56.9% 58.0% 62.1% 0.93× 1.72
Brighton and Hove Albion (1UP) 50.7% 52.7% 51.4% 1.03× 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (2UP) 40.7% 47.5% 44.9% 1.06× 2.11
Brighton and Hove Albion (2UP) 33.5% 30.9% 34.5% 0.90× 3.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.7% 35.9% 30.9% 1.16× 2.79
Coventry to win 2nd half 33.3% 34.5% 36.3% 0.95× 2.90
Brighton and Hove Albion to win 2nd half 31.0% 34.5% 32.9% 1.05× 2.90
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.2% 84.2% 79.8% 1.06× 1.19
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 2nd half 53.4% 53.4% 57.5% 0.93× 1.87
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 2nd half 46.6% 46.6% 42.5% 1.10× 2.14
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.8% 15.8% 20.2% 0.78× 6.34
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.7% 82.4% 75.3% 1.09× 1.21
Coventry over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.3% 58.8% 58.4% 1.01× 1.70
Coventry under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.7% 41.2% 41.6% 0.99× 2.43
Coventry over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.3% 17.6% 24.7% 0.71× 5.67
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (+2.5) 92.8% 92.1% 89.2% 1.03× 1.09
Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5) 80.7% 82.6% 76.0% 1.09× 1.21
Coventry (+0.5) 66.5% 68.7% 67.7% 1.01× 1.46
Brighton and Hove Albion (+0.5) 59.3% 57.0% 56.9% 1.00× 1.76
Coventry (-0.5) 40.7% 43.0% 43.1% 1.00× 2.32
Brighton and Hove Albion (-0.5) 33.5% 31.3% 32.3% 0.97× 3.20
Coventry (-1.5) 19.3% 17.4% 24.0% 0.73× 5.74
Coventry (-2.5) 7.2% 7.9% 10.8% 0.73× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede 75.9% 78.7% 78.4% 1.00× 1.27
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet 24.1% 21.3% 21.6% 0.98× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 1st half 46.1% 50.6% 51.4% 0.99× 1.98
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 1st half 53.9% 49.4% 48.6% 1.01× 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 2nd half 55.3% 58.4% 58.4% 1.00× 1.71
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 2nd half 44.7% 41.6% 41.6% 1.00× 2.40
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 goals 96.0% 97.4% 94.5% 1.03× 1.03
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 goals 86.5% 87.9% 85.0% 1.03× 1.14
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 goals 71.8% 71.8% 74.9% 0.96× 1.39
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 goals 63.9% 63.5% 60.6% 1.05× 1.58
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 goals 36.1% 36.5% 39.4% 0.93× 2.74
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 goals 28.2% 28.2% 25.1% 1.12× 3.55
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 goals 13.5% 12.1% 15.0% 0.81× 8.25
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 goals 4.0% 2.6% 5.5% 0.47× 38.74
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 1st half 90.9% 94.1% 89.2% 1.06× 1.06
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 1st half 60.5% 64.0% 59.4% 1.08× 1.56
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 1st half 39.5% 36.0% 40.6% 0.89× 2.78
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 1st half 9.1% 5.9% 10.8% 0.54× 17.00
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion scores equally in both 40.1% 43.7% 37.6% 1.16× 2.29
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 2nd half 38.1% 36.5% 40.5% 0.90× 2.74
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 1st half 21.8% 22.4% 21.9% 1.02× 4.47
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (away no bet) 61.2% 62.0% 63.5% 0.98× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 38.8% 38.0% 36.5% 1.04× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion even goals 54.0% 52.8% 53.7% 0.98× 1.89
Brighton and Hove Albion odd goals 46.0% 47.2% 46.3% 1.02× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.7% 87.6% 80.1% 1.09× 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.3% 12.4% 19.9% 0.62× 8.06
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.0% 58.1% 70.2% 0.83× 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 37.0% 41.9% 29.8% 1.41× 2.39
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.7% 51.4% 61.4% 0.84× 1.94
Coventry to score 2+ in a row 33.2% 29.1% 39.1% 0.75× 3.44
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 2+ in a row 27.7% 25.1% 29.9% 0.84× 3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.7% 16.3% 26.2% 0.62× 6.12
Coventry to score 3+ in a row 10.9% 12.1% 16.5% 0.74× 8.26
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ in a row 8.0% 5.7% 10.2% 0.56× 17.69
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.2% 11.4% 11.5% 0.99× 8.80
0-1 8.6% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.53
1-0 9.7% 7.4% 6.5% 1.14× 13.53
2-1 8.7% 7.4% 9.0% 0.82× 13.53
0-0 6.8% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.54
1-2 7.8% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.54
2-0 6.9% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.54
0-2 5.5% 7.4% 5.5% 1.33× 13.54
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.54
0-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.6% 0.68× 57.57
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 57.58
1-3 3.3% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 57.56
1-4 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.20× 57.57
2-3 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 57.57
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.54× 57.58
3-0 3.3% 1.7% 5.0% 0.35× 57.56
3-1 4.1% 1.7% 5.5% 0.32× 57.56
3-2 2.6% 1.7% 3.1% 0.57× 57.57
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.26× 57.57
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.39× 57.58
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 57.57
4-1 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 57.57
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 57.58
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 57.58
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.09× 57.58
Any other score 2.5% 1.7% 4.2% 0.42× 57.57
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (2nd half DNB) 51.8% 53.1% 52.5% 1.01× 1.88
Brighton and Hove Albion (2nd half DNB) 48.2% 46.9% 47.5% 0.99× 2.13
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry leading at HT (DNB) 56.6% 58.3% 59.6% 0.98× 1.71
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT (DNB) 43.4% 41.7% 40.4% 1.03× 2.40
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry or Brighton and Hove Albion (12) 74.2% 72.3% 75.3% 0.96× 1.38
Coventry or draw (1X) 66.5% 69.4% 67.7% 1.02× 1.44
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (X2) 59.3% 57.1% 56.9% 1.00× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry or draw at HT 75.5% 79.9% 75.5% 1.06× 1.25
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw at HT 68.1% 66.3% 63.8% 1.04× 1.51
Coventry or Brighton and Hove Albion at HT 56.4% 56.9% 60.6% 0.94× 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry or draw (1UP) 66.5% 75.9% 74.4% 1.02× 1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (1UP) 59.3% 62.9% 65.2% 0.96× 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry or draw in 2nd half 69.0% 65.5% 67.2% 0.98× 1.53
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw in 2nd half 66.7% 65.5% 63.7% 1.03× 1.53
Coventry or Brighton and Hove Albion in 2nd half 64.3% 64.1% 69.1% 0.93× 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.7% 61.7% 56.7% 1.09× 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.3% 38.3% 43.3% 0.88× 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (DNB) 54.8% 50.1% 57.2% 0.88× 2.00
Brighton and Hove Albion (DNB) 45.2% 49.9% 42.8% 1.17× 2.01
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to score first 49.3% 45.7% 52.0% 0.88× 2.19
Brighton and Hove Albion to score first 43.9% 41.9% 43.3% 0.97× 2.39
No goal scored 6.8% 7.5% 4.9% 1.54× 13.36
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.5% 51.6% 58.2% 0.89× 1.94
Not both teams to score 45.5% 48.4% 41.8% 1.16× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.2% 41.7% 46.8% 0.89× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 37.4% 38.6% 30.0% 1.29× 2.59
Both score & under 2.5 12.2% 12.3% 11.5% 1.07× 8.15
Not both score & over 2.5 8.1% 8.4% 11.9% 0.71× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.0% 82.5% 82.2% 1.00× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 15.0% 17.5% 17.8% 0.98× 5.72
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.5% 73.9% 68.9% 1.07× 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.5% 26.1% 31.1% 0.84× 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.7% 59.4% 55.9% 1.06× 1.69
Both score 2nd half only 24.2% 20.9% 24.6% 0.85× 4.78
Both score 1st half only 12.8% 10.7% 13.1% 0.82× 9.32
Both score in both halves 5.4% 6.7% 6.7% 1.01× 14.88
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.8% 82.4% 80.4% 1.03× 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.2% 17.6% 19.6% 0.90× 5.69
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.3% 53.4% 61.9% 0.86× 1.87
A half without a goal 46.7% 46.6% 38.1% 1.22× 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.6% 46.9% 46.6% 1.01× 2.13
4-6 goals 26.3% 27.0% 32.7% 0.82× 3.71
0-1 goals 25.1% 26.9% 18.1% 1.49× 3.71
7+ goals 2.0% 1.9% 2.8% 0.66× 53.92
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 1 35.7% 35.8% 35.6% 1.01× 2.80
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 0 28.2% 27.6% 25.1% 1.10× 3.62
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 2 22.6% 22.5% 24.5% 0.92× 4.44
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ 13.5% 13.0% 15.0% 0.87× 7.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to score exactly 1 34.3% 32.6% 29.6% 1.10× 3.06
Coventry to score exactly 2 24.4% 23.4% 26.1% 0.89× 4.28
Coventry to score exactly 0 24.1% 23.4% 21.6% 1.08× 4.28
Coventry to score 3+ 17.2% 19.2% 22.9% 0.84× 5.22
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.6% 43.1% 39.4% 1.09× 2.32
Coventry leading at HT 32.0% 33.7% 36.2% 0.93× 2.97
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT 24.5% 20.1% 24.5% 0.82× 4.97
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry -1: 2 59.3% 56.7% — — 1.76
Coventry -1: X 21.4% 23.6% — — 4.23
Coventry -1: 1 19.3% 17.3% — — 5.79
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:1) 59.3% 55.7% 56.9% 0.98× 1.80
Draw (0:1) 21.4% 24.4% 19.2% 1.27× 4.10
Coventry (0:1) 19.3% 17.8% 24.0% 0.74× 5.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:2) 80.7% 83.1% 76.0% 1.09× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 12.1% 10.8% 13.3% 0.82× 9.22
Coventry (0:2) 7.2% 7.7% 10.8% 0.72× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3) 92.8% 92.7% 89.2% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.0% 5.9% 7.5% 0.79× 16.96
Coventry (0:3) 2.2% 2.4% 3.3% 0.71× 42.31
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:4) 97.8% 98.1% 96.7% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.6% 1.2% 2.0% 0.60× 81.79
Coventry (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.89× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (1:0) 66.5% 69.5% 67.7% 1.03× 1.44
Draw (1:0) 19.1% 17.1% 16.6% 1.03× 5.86
Brighton and Hove Albion (1:0) 14.4% 12.8% 15.8% 0.81× 7.84
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry (2:0) 85.6% 88.2% 84.2% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.6% 6.6% 9.3% 0.71× 15.21
Brighton and Hove Albion (2:0) 4.9% 2.4% 6.6% 0.37× 41.23
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.7% 48.2% 49.7% 0.97× 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 26.5% 25.8% 1.03× 3.77
Halves equal 25.1% 26.5% 24.7% 1.07× 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to concede 71.8% 73.1% 74.9% 0.98× 1.37
Coventry clean sheet 28.2% 26.9% 25.1% 1.07× 3.72
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry clean sheet in 1st half 60.5% 64.0% 59.4% 1.08× 1.56
Coventry to concede in 1st half 39.5% 36.0% 40.6% 0.89× 2.78
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to concede in 2nd half 53.4% 53.3% 57.5% 0.93× 1.88
Coventry clean sheet in 2nd half 46.6% 46.7% 42.5% 1.10× 2.14
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry under 3.5 goals 94.4% 92.1% 91.6% 1.01× 1.09
Coventry under 2.5 goals 82.8% 81.9% 77.1% 1.06× 1.22
Coventry over 0.5 goals 75.9% 77.4% 78.4% 0.99× 1.29
Coventry under 1.5 goals 58.4% 58.6% 51.1% 1.15× 1.71
Coventry over 1.5 goals 41.6% 41.4% 48.9% 0.85× 2.41
Coventry under 0.5 goals 24.1% 22.6% 21.6% 1.05× 4.43
Coventry over 2.5 goals 17.2% 18.1% 22.9% 0.79× 5.53
Coventry over 3.5 goals 5.6% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.69
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry under 1.5 in 1st half 87.2% 89.8% 84.5% 1.06× 1.11
Coventry over 0.5 in 1st half 46.1% 50.8% 51.4% 0.99× 1.97
Coventry under 0.5 in 1st half 53.9% 49.2% 48.6% 1.01× 2.03
Coventry over 1.5 in 1st half 12.8% 10.2% 15.5% 0.66× 9.78
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry scores equally in both 37.7% 37.7% 37.5% 1.01× 2.66
Coventry scores more in 2nd half 36.8% 37.6% 36.3% 1.04× 2.66
Coventry scores more in 1st half 25.6% 28.0% 26.4% 1.06× 3.57
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (home no bet) 56.5% 56.1% 56.6% 0.99× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 43.5% 43.9% 43.4% 1.01× 2.28
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry even goals 52.9% 50.4% 53.8% 0.94× 1.98
Coventry odd goals 47.1% 49.6% 46.2% 1.07× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.7% 32.3% 27.6% 1.17× 3.10
HT 1-0 20.2% 24.1% 21.8% 1.11× 4.15
HT 0-1 16.4% 18.6% 14.8% 1.25× 5.37
HT 1-1 10.1% 10.9% 10.9% 1.00× 9.17
HT 2-0 6.2% 7.1% 8.1% 0.88× 14.04
HT 0-2 4.1% 2.3% 4.5% 0.51× 43.40
Any other HT score 3.9% 2.3% 5.3% 0.44× 43.42
HT 2-1 3.1% 2.3% 3.8% 0.61× 43.47
HT 1-2 2.5% 2.3% 2.8% 0.82× 43.52
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 1.0% 2.24× 43.65
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry at HT / Coventry at FT 24.0% 21.8% 26.3% 0.83× 4.59
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT 17.6% 16.8% 16.9% 0.99× 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.6% 16.7% 13.6% 1.23× 5.98
Draw at HT / Coventry at FT 14.5% 12.7% 14.0% 0.91× 7.88
Draw at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT 13.5% 12.7% 12.0% 1.05× 7.89
Coventry at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% 6.6% 0.91× 16.72
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% 4.8% 0.73× 28.74
Coventry at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT 2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 0.99× 28.83
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Coventry at FT 2.2% 3.5% 3.0% 1.16× 28.84
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to score last 49.3% 46.8% 50.3% 0.93× 2.14
Brighton and Hove Albion to score last 43.9% 40.1% 44.9% 0.89× 2.49
No goal scored 6.8% 7.5% 4.9% 1.54× 13.36
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.2% 92.6% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Coventry to lead by 1 at any time 56.9% 55.1% 62.1% 0.89× 1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 1 at any time 50.7% 50.7% 51.4% 0.99× 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.4% 43.9% 50.8% 0.86× 2.28
Coventry to lead by 2 at any time 25.4% 25.4% 29.9% 0.85× 3.93
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 2 at any time 20.2% 19.5% 21.2% 0.92× 5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.6% 14.8% 21.2% 0.70× 6.74
Coventry to lead by 3 at any time 9.1% 6.7% 13.1% 0.51× 15.02
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 3 at any time 6.4% 6.6% 8.1% 0.81× 15.15
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.6% 87.4% 88.5% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.7% 78.5% 78.2% 1.00× 1.27
2-6 goals 72.9% 72.3% 79.2% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.3% 68.9% 75.3% 0.92× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.9% 63.1% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.4% 63.1% 64.9% 0.97× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.3% 48.5% 55.8% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.6% 48.4% 46.6% 1.04× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.8% 43.6% 51.9% 0.84× 2.29
1-2 goals 42.9% 43.6% 36.7% 1.19× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.8% 39.3% 41.6% 0.95× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.3% 30.6% 32.7% 0.94× 3.26
4-5 goals 22.8% 24.8% 28.8% 0.86× 4.03
5-6 goals 11.5% 15.0% 14.3% 1.05× 6.65
7+ goals 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 0.91× 38.92
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry never behind 42.5% 48.3% 48.6% 0.99× 2.07
Brighton and Hove Albion never behind 36.3% 44.6% 37.9% 1.18× 2.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 49.0% 1.04× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 51.0% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.3% 57.4% 53.4% 1.07× 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.7% 42.6% 46.6% 0.92× 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.2% 52.0% 51.8% 1.00× 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.8% 48.0% 48.2% 1.00× 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.4% 92.2% 93.3% 0.99× 1.09
Over 0.5 goals 93.2% 92.2% 95.1% 0.97× 1.09
Under 4.5 goals 86.5% 87.4% 82.9% 1.05× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 74.9% 72.4% 81.9% 0.88× 1.38
Under 3.5 goals 71.7% 72.4% 64.6% 1.12× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.3% 53.0% 58.5% 0.91× 1.89
Under 2.5 goals 49.7% 47.0% 41.5% 1.13× 2.13
Over 3.5 goals 28.3% 27.6% 35.4% 0.78× 3.62
Under 1.5 goals 25.1% 27.6% 18.1% 1.52× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 13.5% 12.6% 17.1% 0.74× 7.96
Under 0.5 goals 6.8% 7.8% 4.9% 1.60× 12.82
Over 5.5 goals 5.6% 7.8% 6.7% 1.16× 12.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.2% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.9% 92.4% 92.5% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.1% 80.5% 79.1% 1.02× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 66.7% 67.6% 76.4% 0.88× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.7% 61.7% 53.9% 1.14× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.3% 38.3% 46.1% 0.83× 2.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.3% 32.4% 23.6% 1.37× 3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.9% 19.5% 20.9% 0.93× 5.13
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.1% 7.6% 7.5% 1.01× 13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 0.97× 35.10
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.1% 87.4% 1.02× 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.2% 69.1% 64.1% 1.08× 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.3% 69.0% 72.4% 0.95× 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.7% 31.0% 27.6% 1.12× 3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.8% 30.9% 35.9% 0.86× 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.9% 12.6% 0.87× 9.15
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.2% 79.8% 84.7% 0.94× 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.1% 79.8% 75.9% 1.05× 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.5% 53.4% 45.8% 1.16× 1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.5% 46.6% 54.2% 0.86× 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.9% 20.2% 24.1% 0.84× 4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.8% 20.2% 15.3% 1.32× 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to score in both halves 78.9% 78.3% 76.8% 1.02× 1.28
Coventry not to score in both halves 74.5% 73.8% 68.7% 1.07× 1.36
Coventry to score in both halves 25.5% 26.2% 31.3% 0.84× 3.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to score in both halves 21.1% 21.7% 23.2% 0.93× 4.61
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.5% 54.3% 58.2% 0.93× 1.84
Only Coventry scores 21.4% 22.0% 20.3% 1.08× 4.54
Only Brighton and Hove Albion scores 17.3% 16.0% 16.8% 0.95× 6.25
Neither team scores 6.8% 7.1% 4.9% 1.47× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.6% 22.4% 23.5% 0.96× 4.46
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.4% 23.2% 0.97× 4.46
Exactly 1 goals 18.3% 17.6% 13.3% 1.32× 5.70
Exactly 4 goals 14.8% 12.1% 18.4% 0.65× 8.30
Exactly 5 goals 8.0% 7.8% 10.4% 0.75× 12.83
Exactly 0 goals 6.8% 7.8% 4.9% 1.60× 12.83
6 or more goals 5.6% 7.8% 6.7% 1.16× 12.84
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.5% 37.1% 36.5% 1.02× 2.70
No goals in 1st half 32.7% 35.9% 27.6% 1.30× 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 20.5% 21.7% 23.4% 0.93× 4.61
3+ goals in 1st half 10.3% 10.8% 12.6% 0.86× 9.24
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.5% 44.7% 54.2% 0.83× 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.7% 33.3% 30.6% 1.09× 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 20.8% 23.0% 15.3% 1.50× 4.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win both halves 92.4% 94.0% 91.2% 1.03× 1.06
Coventry not to win both halves 89.4% 88.0% 86.5% 1.02× 1.14
Coventry to win both halves 10.6% 12.0% 13.5% 0.89× 8.33
Brighton and Hove Albion to win both halves 7.6% 6.0% 8.8% 0.69× 16.58
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coventry to win either half 54.6% 54.9% 59.0% 0.93× 1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to win neither half 52.2% 54.9% 51.5% 1.07× 1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to win either half 47.8% 45.1% 48.5% 0.93× 2.22
Coventry to win neither half 45.4% 45.1% 41.0% 1.10× 2.22
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win to nil 82.7% 83.1% 83.2% 1.00× 1.20
Coventry not to win to nil 78.6% 78.3% 79.7% 0.98× 1.28
Coventry to win to nil 21.4% 21.7% 20.3% 1.07× 4.62
Brighton and Hove Albion to win to nil 17.3% 16.9% 16.8% 1.00× 5.93
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.8% 27.7% 24.7% 1.12× 3.61
Coventry by 1 21.4% 24.2% 19.2% 1.26× 4.14
Brighton and Hove Albion by 1 19.1% 16.9% 16.6% 1.02× 5.92
Coventry by 2 12.1% 11.7% 13.3% 0.88× 8.52
Brighton and Hove Albion by 2 9.6% 7.3% 9.3% 0.78× 13.73
Coventry by 3+ 7.2% 7.3% 10.8% 0.68× 13.74
Brighton and Hove Albion by 3+ 4.9% 2.8% 6.6% 0.43× 35.48
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Charalampos Kostoulas 34' — goalMalick Yalcouyé 50' — goalPascal Groß 69' — goalLewis Dunk 82' — goalYasin Ayari 93' — goal
Coventry 1.07 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 2.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Diego Gómez 5' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Yasin Ayari 8' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Charalampos Kostoulas 10' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Olivier Boscagli 12' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Charalampos Kostoulas 16' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Malick Yalcouyé 16' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Malick Yalcouyé 17' — Saved Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Ephron Mason-Clark 20' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Taiwo Awoniyi 20' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jack Rudoni 22' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Bobby Thomas 26' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jack Rudoni 26' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Frank Onyeka 31' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Bobby Thomas 32' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Charalampos Kostoulas 34' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 36' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ephron Mason-Clark 37' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Ethan Pinnock 38' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Matt Grimes 41' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Diego Gómez 45' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Luka Vuskovic 45' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Ephron Mason-Clark 45' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Luka Vuskovic 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Malick Yalcouyé 50' — Goal (0.27 xG, Open Play)Pascal Groß 69' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Chema Andres 73' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Brandon Thomas-Asante 77' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Osman 80' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Yasin Ayari 80' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Bobby Thomas 81' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lewis Dunk 82' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ibrahim Osman 85' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Maxim De Cuyper 88' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yasin Ayari 90' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Brandon Thomas-Asante 92' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yasin Ayari 93' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Coventry attacking right Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Brighton and Hove Albion Diego Gómez 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
8' Brighton and Hove Albion Yasin Ayari 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Maxim De Cuyper
10' Brighton and Hove Albion Charalampos Kostoulas 0.10 Set Piece — Missed Shot Pascal Groß
12' Brighton and Hove Albion Olivier Boscagli 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Malick Yalcouyé
16' Brighton and Hove Albion Charalampos Kostoulas 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
16' Brighton and Hove Albion Malick Yalcouyé 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ferdi Kadioglu
17' Brighton and Hove Albion Malick Yalcouyé 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Maxim De Cuyper
20' Coventry Ephron Mason-Clark 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Taiwo Awoniyi
20' Coventry Taiwo Awoniyi 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jack Rudoni
22' Coventry Jack Rudoni 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Jay Dasilva
26' Coventry Bobby Thomas 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot —
26' Coventry Jack Rudoni 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jay Dasilva
31' Coventry Frank Onyeka 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot —
32' Coventry Bobby Thomas 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Jack Rudoni
34' Brighton and Hove Albion Charalampos Kostoulas 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pascal Groß
36' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Olivier Boscagli
37' Coventry Ephron Mason-Clark 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jack Rudoni
38' Coventry Ethan Pinnock 0.03 From Corner — Missed Shot —
41' Coventry Matt Grimes 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
45' Brighton and Hove Albion Diego Gómez 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
45' Brighton and Hove Albion Luka Vuskovic 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
45' Coventry Ephron Mason-Clark 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jack Rudoni
46' Brighton and Hove Albion Luka Vuskovic 0.02 Set Piece — Missed Shot Pascal Groß
50' Brighton and Hove Albion Malick Yalcouyé 0.27 Open Play Right Foot Goal Maxim De Cuyper
69' Brighton and Hove Albion Pascal Groß 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
73' Brighton and Hove Albion Chema Andres 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
77' Coventry Brandon Thomas-Asante 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aurèle Amenda
80' Brighton and Hove Albion Ibrahim Osman 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
80' Brighton and Hove Albion Yasin Ayari 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
81' Coventry Bobby Thomas 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Milan van Ewijk
82' Brighton and Hove Albion Lewis Dunk 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal Chema Andres
85' Brighton and Hove Albion Ibrahim Osman 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Maxim De Cuyper
88' Brighton and Hove Albion Maxim De Cuyper 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Matt O'Riley
90' Brighton and Hove Albion Yasin Ayari 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pascal Groß
92' Coventry Brandon Thomas-Asante 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Caleb Yirenkyi
93' Brighton and Hove Albion Yasin Ayari 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pascal Groß

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pascal Groß DMC 90 1 2 2 6 0.79 0.66 0.89
Yasin Ayari DMC 90 1 0 4 0 0.27 0.00 0.67
Maxim De Cuyper AML 90 0 1 1 4 0.03 0.50 0.77
Lewis Dunk DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.58
Bart Verbruggen GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Ferdi Kadioglu DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.20
Charalampos Kostoulas FW 85 1 0 3 0 0.77 0.00 0.82
Diego Gómez AMR 85 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.33
Luka Vuskovic DC 79 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.36
Olivier Boscagli DL 79 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.19
Malick Yalcouyé AMC 66 1 0 3 1 0.53 0.01 0.56
Chema Andres Sub 24 0 1 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.20
Ibrahim Osman Sub 11 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.14
Pascal Struijk Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Costinha Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Matt O'Riley Sub 5 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03

Coventry

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Bobby Thomas DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.10 0.00 0.21
Ethan Pinnock DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.17
Jay Dasilva DML 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.37 0.40
Aurèle Amenda DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.13
Carl Rushworth GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Milan van Ewijk DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.06
Matt Grimes MC 85 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.10
Jack Rudoni AMC 74 0 0 2 4 0.37 0.33 0.67
Frank Onyeka MC 74 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.03
Ephron Mason-Clark AMC 61 0 0 3 0 0.32 0.00 0.44
Taiwo Awoniyi FW 54 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.10 0.33
Sidiki Chérif Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Brandon Thomas-Asante Sub 16 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Caleb Yirenkyi Sub 16 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Victor Torp Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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