Coventry v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 11.8%
- 0-1 10.2%
- 1-2 9.3%
- 0-2 8.0%
- 1-0 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 51.7% | Under 2.5 | 48.3% |
| BTTS yes | 54.6% | BTTS no | 45.4% |
| Coventry 1+ | 68.7% | Coventry 2+ | 32.4% |
| Brighton and Hove Albion 1+ | 79.4% | Brighton and Hove Albion 2+ | 46.9% |
Expected goals 1.16 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1627 Elo against 1475.
- Brighton and Hove Albion have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Coventry have allowed 1.50.
- Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 1.62 xG a match.
Risk factors
- The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.85).
- Coventry have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Brighton and Hove Albion have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 28.0% for Coventry and 24.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.16 for Coventry and 1.58 for Brighton and Hove Albion.
Why Coventry
Coventry have created 1.08 xG a match over their last five while Brighton and Hove Albion have allowed 1.57. At home Coventry average 1.18 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Brighton and Hove Albion were missing 1.11 expected goal involvements a match against 0.30.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Brighton and Hove Albion can win
Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1627 Elo against 1475. Brighton and Hove Albion have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Coventry have allowed 1.50. Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 1.62 xG a match.
Key players
Coventry's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Taiwo Awoniyi (0.31), Ellis Simms (0.21), Jack Rudoni (0.18). Brighton and Hove Albion's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danny Welbeck (0.38), Jack Hinshelwood (0.30), Pascal Groß (0.29).
Availability
1 of Coventry's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Brighton and Hove Albion's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Coventry: 42% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 13.7 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Brighton and Hove Albion: 67% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-13 14:48 · team_stats 2026-09-13 06:08 · availability 2026-09-13 15:42 · prediction 2026-09-12 18:52 ·
Brighton and Hove Albion are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Coventry are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.16–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-goals | 0.85–1.61 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 47% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg | 1.46–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 43% | 49% | Home ✗ | |
| deep | 1.42–1.27 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to win | 40.7% | 42.9% | 43.1% | 1.00× | 2.33 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win | 33.5% | 30.6% | 32.3% | 0.95× | 3.27 |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.7% | 24.7% | 1.12× | 3.61 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry & not both score | 21.4% | 21.8% | 20.3% | 1.07× | 4.60 |
| Coventry & both teams score | 19.3% | 18.0% | 22.9% | 0.79× | 5.55 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.0% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.55 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & not both score | 17.3% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 1.07× | 5.55 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & both teams score | 16.2% | 18.0% | 15.5% | 1.16× | 5.55 |
| Draw & not both score | 6.8% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 1.72× | 11.95 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry & over 1.5 | 31.0% | 31.0% | 36.7% | 0.85× | 3.22 |
| Coventry & under 3.5 | 28.5% | 25.9% | 26.8% | 0.97× | 3.86 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & over 1.5 | 24.9% | 21.6% | 25.4% | 0.85× | 4.63 |
| Coventry & over 2.5 | 24.2% | 21.6% | 30.2% | 0.72× | 4.63 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & under 3.5 | 24.1% | 21.6% | 21.7% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.10× | 5.57 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 19.0% | 18.0% | 16.3% | 1.10× | 5.57 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & over 2.5 | 19.4% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.57 |
| Coventry & under 2.5 | 16.5% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 1.38× | 5.57 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & under 2.5 | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 1.04× | 7.77 |
| Coventry & over 3.5 | 12.2% | 12.9% | 16.4% | 0.79× | 7.78 |
| Coventry & under 1.5 | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 1.23× | 12.56 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & over 3.5 | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 0.75× | 12.56 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion & under 1.5 | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 1.15× | 12.56 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 6.8% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 1.64× | 12.56 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 0.93× | 12.56 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 0.93× | 12.56 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (1UP) | 56.9% | 58.0% | 62.1% | 0.93× | 1.72 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (1UP) | 50.7% | 52.7% | 51.4% | 1.03× | 1.90 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (2UP) | 40.7% | 47.5% | 44.9% | 1.06× | 2.11 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (2UP) | 33.5% | 30.9% | 34.5% | 0.90× | 3.24 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 35.7% | 35.9% | 30.9% | 1.16× | 2.79 |
| Coventry to win 2nd half | 33.3% | 34.5% | 36.3% | 0.95× | 2.90 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win 2nd half | 31.0% | 34.5% | 32.9% | 1.05× | 2.90 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 2nd half | 82.2% | 84.2% | 79.8% | 1.06× | 1.19 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 2nd half | 53.4% | 53.4% | 57.5% | 0.93× | 1.87 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 2nd half | 46.6% | 46.6% | 42.5% | 1.10× | 2.14 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 2nd half | 17.8% | 15.8% | 20.2% | 0.78× | 6.34 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry under 1.5 in 2nd half | 80.7% | 82.4% | 75.3% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Coventry over 0.5 in 2nd half | 55.3% | 58.8% | 58.4% | 1.01× | 1.70 |
| Coventry under 0.5 in 2nd half | 44.7% | 41.2% | 41.6% | 0.99× | 2.43 |
| Coventry over 1.5 in 2nd half | 19.3% | 17.6% | 24.7% | 0.71× | 5.67 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion (+2.5) | 92.8% | 92.1% | 89.2% | 1.03× | 1.09 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5) | 80.7% | 82.6% | 76.0% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Coventry (+0.5) | 66.5% | 68.7% | 67.7% | 1.01× | 1.46 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (+0.5) | 59.3% | 57.0% | 56.9% | 1.00× | 1.76 |
| Coventry (-0.5) | 40.7% | 43.0% | 43.1% | 1.00× | 2.32 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (-0.5) | 33.5% | 31.3% | 32.3% | 0.97× | 3.20 |
| Coventry (-1.5) | 19.3% | 17.4% | 24.0% | 0.73× | 5.74 |
| Coventry (-2.5) | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 0.73× | 12.68 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion to concede | 75.9% | 78.7% | 78.4% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet | 24.1% | 21.3% | 21.6% | 0.98× | 4.71 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 1st half | 46.1% | 50.6% | 51.4% | 0.99× | 1.98 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 1st half | 53.9% | 49.4% | 48.6% | 1.01× | 2.03 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 2nd half | 55.3% | 58.4% | 58.4% | 1.00× | 1.71 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 2nd half | 44.7% | 41.6% | 41.6% | 1.00× | 2.40 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 goals | 96.0% | 97.4% | 94.5% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 goals | 86.5% | 87.9% | 85.0% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | 71.8% | 74.9% | 0.96× | 1.39 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 goals | 63.9% | 63.5% | 60.6% | 1.05× | 1.58 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 36.5% | 39.4% | 0.93× | 2.74 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 goals | 28.2% | 28.2% | 25.1% | 1.12× | 3.55 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 goals | 13.5% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 0.81× | 8.25 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 goals | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 0.47× | 38.74 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 1st half | 90.9% | 94.1% | 89.2% | 1.06× | 1.06 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 1st half | 60.5% | 64.0% | 59.4% | 1.08× | 1.56 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 1st half | 39.5% | 36.0% | 40.6% | 0.89× | 2.78 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 1st half | 9.1% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 0.54× | 17.00 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion scores equally in both | 40.1% | 43.7% | 37.6% | 1.16× | 2.29 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 2nd half | 38.1% | 36.5% | 40.5% | 0.90× | 2.74 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 1st half | 21.8% | 22.4% | 21.9% | 1.02× | 4.47 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (away no bet) | 61.2% | 62.0% | 63.5% | 0.98× | 1.61 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 38.8% | 38.0% | 36.5% | 1.04× | 2.63 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion even goals | 54.0% | 52.8% | 53.7% | 0.98× | 1.89 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion odd goals | 46.0% | 47.2% | 46.3% | 1.02× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 85.7% | 87.6% | 80.1% | 1.09× | 1.14 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 14.3% | 12.4% | 19.9% | 0.62× | 8.06 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 63.0% | 58.1% | 70.2% | 0.83× | 1.72 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 41.9% | 29.8% | 1.41× | 2.39 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 54.7% | 51.4% | 61.4% | 0.84× | 1.94 |
| Coventry to score 2+ in a row | 33.2% | 29.1% | 39.1% | 0.75× | 3.44 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score 2+ in a row | 27.7% | 25.1% | 29.9% | 0.84× | 3.99 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 18.7% | 16.3% | 26.2% | 0.62× | 6.12 |
| Coventry to score 3+ in a row | 10.9% | 12.1% | 16.5% | 0.74× | 8.26 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ in a row | 8.0% | 5.7% | 10.2% | 0.56× | 17.69 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 0.99× | 8.80 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.53 |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.14× | 13.53 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 0.82× | 13.53 |
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.52× | 13.54 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 1.07× | 13.54 |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 1.12× | 13.54 |
| 0-2 | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 1.33× | 13.54 |
| 2-2 | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 0.97× | 13.54 |
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.68× | 57.57 |
| 0-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.57× | 57.58 |
| 1-3 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 57.56 |
| 1-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.20× | 57.57 |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.73× | 57.57 |
| 2-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.54× | 57.58 |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 0.35× | 57.56 |
| 3-1 | 4.1% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 0.32× | 57.56 |
| 3-2 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 0.57× | 57.57 |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.26× | 57.57 |
| 3-4 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.39× | 57.58 |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 57.57 |
| 4-1 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.78× | 57.57 |
| 4-2 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.27× | 57.58 |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.85× | 57.58 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.09× | 57.58 |
| Any other score | 2.5% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 0.42× | 57.57 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (2nd half DNB) | 51.8% | 53.1% | 52.5% | 1.01× | 1.88 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (2nd half DNB) | 48.2% | 46.9% | 47.5% | 0.99× | 2.13 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry leading at HT (DNB) | 56.6% | 58.3% | 59.6% | 0.98× | 1.71 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT (DNB) | 43.4% | 41.7% | 40.4% | 1.03× | 2.40 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry or Brighton and Hove Albion (12) | 74.2% | 72.3% | 75.3% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| Coventry or draw (1X) | 66.5% | 69.4% | 67.7% | 1.02× | 1.44 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (X2) | 59.3% | 57.1% | 56.9% | 1.00× | 1.75 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry or draw at HT | 75.5% | 79.9% | 75.5% | 1.06× | 1.25 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion or draw at HT | 68.1% | 66.3% | 63.8% | 1.04× | 1.51 |
| Coventry or Brighton and Hove Albion at HT | 56.4% | 56.9% | 60.6% | 0.94× | 1.76 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry or draw (1UP) | 66.5% | 75.9% | 74.4% | 1.02× | 1.32 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (1UP) | 59.3% | 62.9% | 65.2% | 0.96× | 1.59 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry or draw in 2nd half | 69.0% | 65.5% | 67.2% | 0.98× | 1.53 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion or draw in 2nd half | 66.7% | 65.5% | 63.7% | 1.03× | 1.53 |
| Coventry or Brighton and Hove Albion in 2nd half | 64.3% | 64.1% | 69.1% | 0.93× | 1.56 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 63.7% | 61.7% | 56.7% | 1.09× | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 36.3% | 38.3% | 43.3% | 0.88× | 2.61 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (DNB) | 54.8% | 50.1% | 57.2% | 0.88× | 2.00 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (DNB) | 45.2% | 49.9% | 42.8% | 1.17× | 2.01 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to score first | 49.3% | 45.7% | 52.0% | 0.88× | 2.19 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score first | 43.9% | 41.9% | 43.3% | 0.97× | 2.39 |
| No goal scored | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.54× | 13.36 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 51.6% | 58.2% | 0.89× | 1.94 |
| Not both teams to score | 45.5% | 48.4% | 41.8% | 1.16× | 2.07 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 42.2% | 41.7% | 46.8% | 0.89× | 2.40 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 37.4% | 38.6% | 30.0% | 1.29× | 2.59 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 1.07× | 8.15 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 0.71× | 11.94 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 85.0% | 82.5% | 82.2% | 1.00× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 15.0% | 17.5% | 17.8% | 0.98× | 5.72 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 70.5% | 73.9% | 68.9% | 1.07× | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 29.5% | 26.1% | 31.1% | 0.84× | 3.84 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 57.7% | 59.4% | 55.9% | 1.06× | 1.69 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 24.2% | 20.9% | 24.6% | 0.85× | 4.78 |
| Both score 1st half only | 12.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 0.82× | 9.32 |
| Both score in both halves | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 1.01× | 14.88 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 81.8% | 82.4% | 80.4% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 18.2% | 17.6% | 19.6% | 0.90× | 5.69 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 53.3% | 53.4% | 61.9% | 0.86× | 1.87 |
| A half without a goal | 46.7% | 46.6% | 38.1% | 1.22× | 2.15 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.6% | 46.9% | 46.6% | 1.01× | 2.13 |
| 4-6 goals | 26.3% | 27.0% | 32.7% | 0.82× | 3.71 |
| 0-1 goals | 25.1% | 26.9% | 18.1% | 1.49× | 3.71 |
| 7+ goals | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 0.66× | 53.92 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 1 | 35.7% | 35.8% | 35.6% | 1.01× | 2.80 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 0 | 28.2% | 27.6% | 25.1% | 1.10× | 3.62 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 2 | 22.6% | 22.5% | 24.5% | 0.92× | 4.44 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ | 13.5% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 0.87× | 7.69 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to score exactly 1 | 34.3% | 32.6% | 29.6% | 1.10× | 3.06 |
| Coventry to score exactly 2 | 24.4% | 23.4% | 26.1% | 0.89× | 4.28 |
| Coventry to score exactly 0 | 24.1% | 23.4% | 21.6% | 1.08× | 4.28 |
| Coventry to score 3+ | 17.2% | 19.2% | 22.9% | 0.84× | 5.22 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 43.6% | 43.1% | 39.4% | 1.09× | 2.32 |
| Coventry leading at HT | 32.0% | 33.7% | 36.2% | 0.93× | 2.97 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT | 24.5% | 20.1% | 24.5% | 0.82× | 4.97 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry -1: 2 | 59.3% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Coventry -1: X | 21.4% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
| Coventry -1: 1 | 19.3% | 17.3% | — | — | 5.79 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion (0:1) | 59.3% | 55.7% | 56.9% | 0.98× | 1.80 |
| Draw (0:1) | 21.4% | 24.4% | 19.2% | 1.27× | 4.10 |
| Coventry (0:1) | 19.3% | 17.8% | 24.0% | 0.74× | 5.63 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion (0:2) | 80.7% | 83.1% | 76.0% | 1.09× | 1.20 |
| Draw (0:2) | 12.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 0.82× | 9.22 |
| Coventry (0:2) | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 0.72× | 12.99 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3) | 92.8% | 92.7% | 89.2% | 1.04× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 0.79× | 16.96 |
| Coventry (0:3) | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.71× | 42.31 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion (0:4) | 97.8% | 98.1% | 96.7% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.60× | 81.79 |
| Coventry (0:4) | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.89× | 81.90 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (1:0) | 66.5% | 69.5% | 67.7% | 1.03× | 1.44 |
| Draw (1:0) | 19.1% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 1.03× | 5.86 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (1:0) | 14.4% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 0.81× | 7.84 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry (2:0) | 85.6% | 88.2% | 84.2% | 1.05× | 1.13 |
| Draw (2:0) | 9.6% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 0.71× | 15.21 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion (2:0) | 4.9% | 2.4% | 6.6% | 0.37× | 41.23 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 47.7% | 48.2% | 49.7% | 0.97× | 2.07 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.1% | 26.5% | 25.8% | 1.03× | 3.77 |
| Halves equal | 25.1% | 26.5% | 24.7% | 1.07× | 3.78 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to concede | 71.8% | 73.1% | 74.9% | 0.98× | 1.37 |
| Coventry clean sheet | 28.2% | 26.9% | 25.1% | 1.07× | 3.72 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry clean sheet in 1st half | 60.5% | 64.0% | 59.4% | 1.08× | 1.56 |
| Coventry to concede in 1st half | 39.5% | 36.0% | 40.6% | 0.89× | 2.78 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to concede in 2nd half | 53.4% | 53.3% | 57.5% | 0.93× | 1.88 |
| Coventry clean sheet in 2nd half | 46.6% | 46.7% | 42.5% | 1.10× | 2.14 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry under 3.5 goals | 94.4% | 92.1% | 91.6% | 1.01× | 1.09 |
| Coventry under 2.5 goals | 82.8% | 81.9% | 77.1% | 1.06× | 1.22 |
| Coventry over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | 77.4% | 78.4% | 0.99× | 1.29 |
| Coventry under 1.5 goals | 58.4% | 58.6% | 51.1% | 1.15× | 1.71 |
| Coventry over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 41.4% | 48.9% | 0.85× | 2.41 |
| Coventry under 0.5 goals | 24.1% | 22.6% | 21.6% | 1.05× | 4.43 |
| Coventry over 2.5 goals | 17.2% | 18.1% | 22.9% | 0.79× | 5.53 |
| Coventry over 3.5 goals | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 0.94× | 12.69 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry under 1.5 in 1st half | 87.2% | 89.8% | 84.5% | 1.06× | 1.11 |
| Coventry over 0.5 in 1st half | 46.1% | 50.8% | 51.4% | 0.99× | 1.97 |
| Coventry under 0.5 in 1st half | 53.9% | 49.2% | 48.6% | 1.01× | 2.03 |
| Coventry over 1.5 in 1st half | 12.8% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 0.66× | 9.78 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry scores equally in both | 37.7% | 37.7% | 37.5% | 1.01× | 2.66 |
| Coventry scores more in 2nd half | 36.8% | 37.6% | 36.3% | 1.04× | 2.66 |
| Coventry scores more in 1st half | 25.6% | 28.0% | 26.4% | 1.06× | 3.57 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion (home no bet) | 56.5% | 56.1% | 56.6% | 0.99× | 1.78 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 43.5% | 43.9% | 43.4% | 1.01× | 2.28 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry even goals | 52.9% | 50.4% | 53.8% | 0.94× | 1.98 |
| Coventry odd goals | 47.1% | 49.6% | 46.2% | 1.07× | 2.02 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 32.7% | 32.3% | 27.6% | 1.17× | 3.10 |
| HT 1-0 | 20.2% | 24.1% | 21.8% | 1.11× | 4.15 |
| HT 0-1 | 16.4% | 18.6% | 14.8% | 1.25× | 5.37 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 1.00× | 9.17 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 0.88× | 14.04 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.1% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 0.51× | 43.40 |
| Any other HT score | 3.9% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 0.44× | 43.42 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 0.61× | 43.47 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0.82× | 43.52 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 2.24× | 43.65 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry at HT / Coventry at FT | 24.0% | 21.8% | 26.3% | 0.83× | 4.59 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT | 17.6% | 16.8% | 16.9% | 0.99× | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 15.6% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 1.23× | 5.98 |
| Draw at HT / Coventry at FT | 14.5% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 0.91× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT | 13.5% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 1.05× | 7.89 |
| Coventry at HT / Draw at FT | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 0.91× | 16.72 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Draw at FT | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 0.73× | 28.74 |
| Coventry at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.99× | 28.83 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Coventry at FT | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.16× | 28.84 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to score last | 49.3% | 46.8% | 50.3% | 0.93× | 2.14 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score last | 43.9% | 40.1% | 44.9% | 0.89× | 2.49 |
| No goal scored | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.54× | 13.36 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 93.2% | 92.6% | 95.1% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Coventry to lead by 1 at any time | 56.9% | 55.1% | 62.1% | 0.89× | 1.82 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 1 at any time | 50.7% | 50.7% | 51.4% | 0.99× | 1.97 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 45.4% | 43.9% | 50.8% | 0.86× | 2.28 |
| Coventry to lead by 2 at any time | 25.4% | 25.4% | 29.9% | 0.85× | 3.93 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 2 at any time | 20.2% | 19.5% | 21.2% | 0.92× | 5.12 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 15.6% | 14.8% | 21.2% | 0.70× | 6.74 |
| Coventry to lead by 3 at any time | 9.1% | 6.7% | 13.1% | 0.51× | 15.02 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 3 at any time | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 0.81× | 15.15 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.6% | 87.4% | 88.5% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.7% | 78.5% | 78.2% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 72.9% | 72.3% | 79.2% | 0.91× | 1.38 |
| 2-5 goals | 69.3% | 68.9% | 75.3% | 0.92× | 1.45 |
| 1-3 goals | 64.9% | 63.1% | 59.8% | 1.06× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.4% | 63.1% | 64.9% | 0.97× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 48.3% | 48.5% | 55.8% | 0.87× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.6% | 48.4% | 46.6% | 1.04× | 2.06 |
| 3-5 goals | 44.8% | 43.6% | 51.9% | 0.84× | 2.29 |
| 1-2 goals | 42.9% | 43.6% | 36.7% | 1.19× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.8% | 39.3% | 41.6% | 0.95× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 26.3% | 30.6% | 32.7% | 0.94× | 3.26 |
| 4-5 goals | 22.8% | 24.8% | 28.8% | 0.86× | 4.03 |
| 5-6 goals | 11.5% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 1.05× | 6.65 |
| 7+ goals | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 0.91× | 38.92 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry never behind | 42.5% | 48.3% | 48.6% | 0.99× | 2.07 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion never behind | 36.3% | 44.6% | 37.9% | 1.18× | 2.24 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.8% | 50.9% | 49.0% | 1.04× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.2% | 49.1% | 51.0% | 0.96× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 55.3% | 57.4% | 53.4% | 1.07× | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.7% | 42.6% | 46.6% | 0.92× | 2.35 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.2% | 52.0% | 51.8% | 1.00× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.8% | 48.0% | 48.2% | 1.00× | 2.08 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 94.4% | 92.2% | 93.3% | 0.99× | 1.09 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 93.2% | 92.2% | 95.1% | 0.97× | 1.09 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 86.5% | 87.4% | 82.9% | 1.05× | 1.14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | 72.4% | 81.9% | 0.88× | 1.38 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71.7% | 72.4% | 64.6% | 1.12× | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 53.0% | 58.5% | 0.91× | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 47.0% | 41.5% | 1.13× | 2.13 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 27.6% | 35.4% | 0.78× | 3.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 27.6% | 18.1% | 1.52× | 3.63 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13.5% | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.74× | 7.96 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 1.60× | 12.82 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 1.16× | 12.83 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 97.9% | 97.2% | 97.1% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 93.9% | 92.4% | 92.5% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 84.1% | 80.5% | 79.1% | 1.02× | 1.24 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 66.7% | 67.6% | 76.4% | 0.88× | 1.48 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 63.7% | 61.7% | 53.9% | 1.14× | 1.62 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 36.3% | 38.3% | 46.1% | 0.83× | 2.61 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 33.3% | 32.4% | 23.6% | 1.37× | 3.09 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 15.9% | 19.5% | 20.9% | 0.93× | 5.13 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 1.01× | 13.14 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.97× | 35.10 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 89.7% | 89.1% | 87.4% | 1.02× | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 69.2% | 69.1% | 64.1% | 1.08× | 1.45 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 67.3% | 69.0% | 72.4% | 0.95× | 1.45 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 32.7% | 31.0% | 27.6% | 1.12× | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 30.8% | 30.9% | 35.9% | 0.86× | 3.24 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 0.87× | 9.15 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 79.2% | 79.8% | 84.7% | 0.94× | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 79.1% | 79.8% | 75.9% | 1.05× | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 53.5% | 53.4% | 45.8% | 1.16× | 1.87 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 46.5% | 46.6% | 54.2% | 0.86× | 2.14 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 20.9% | 20.2% | 24.1% | 0.84× | 4.95 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 20.8% | 20.2% | 15.3% | 1.32× | 4.95 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion not to score in both halves | 78.9% | 78.3% | 76.8% | 1.02× | 1.28 |
| Coventry not to score in both halves | 74.5% | 73.8% | 68.7% | 1.07× | 1.36 |
| Coventry to score in both halves | 25.5% | 26.2% | 31.3% | 0.84× | 3.82 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to score in both halves | 21.1% | 21.7% | 23.2% | 0.93× | 4.61 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 54.5% | 54.3% | 58.2% | 0.93× | 1.84 |
| Only Coventry scores | 21.4% | 22.0% | 20.3% | 1.08× | 4.54 |
| Only Brighton and Hove Albion scores | 17.3% | 16.0% | 16.8% | 0.95× | 6.25 |
| Neither team scores | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.47× | 14.02 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 24.6% | 22.4% | 23.5% | 0.96× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.0% | 22.4% | 23.2% | 0.97× | 4.46 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 18.3% | 17.6% | 13.3% | 1.32× | 5.70 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.8% | 12.1% | 18.4% | 0.65× | 8.30 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 0.75× | 12.83 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 1.60× | 12.83 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 1.16× | 12.84 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.5% | 37.1% | 36.5% | 1.02× | 2.70 |
| No goals in 1st half | 32.7% | 35.9% | 27.6% | 1.30× | 2.79 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 20.5% | 21.7% | 23.4% | 0.93× | 4.61 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 10.3% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 0.86× | 9.24 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 46.5% | 44.7% | 54.2% | 0.83× | 2.24 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 32.7% | 33.3% | 30.6% | 1.09× | 3.00 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 20.8% | 23.0% | 15.3% | 1.50× | 4.36 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion not to win both halves | 92.4% | 94.0% | 91.2% | 1.03× | 1.06 |
| Coventry not to win both halves | 89.4% | 88.0% | 86.5% | 1.02× | 1.14 |
| Coventry to win both halves | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 0.89× | 8.33 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win both halves | 7.6% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 0.69× | 16.58 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry to win either half | 54.6% | 54.9% | 59.0% | 0.93× | 1.82 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win neither half | 52.2% | 54.9% | 51.5% | 1.07× | 1.82 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win either half | 47.8% | 45.1% | 48.5% | 0.93× | 2.22 |
| Coventry to win neither half | 45.4% | 45.1% | 41.0% | 1.10× | 2.22 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove Albion not to win to nil | 82.7% | 83.1% | 83.2% | 1.00× | 1.20 |
| Coventry not to win to nil | 78.6% | 78.3% | 79.7% | 0.98× | 1.28 |
| Coventry to win to nil | 21.4% | 21.7% | 20.3% | 1.07× | 4.62 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion to win to nil | 17.3% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 1.00× | 5.93 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.7% | 24.7% | 1.12× | 3.61 |
| Coventry by 1 | 21.4% | 24.2% | 19.2% | 1.26× | 4.14 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion by 1 | 19.1% | 16.9% | 16.6% | 1.02× | 5.92 |
| Coventry by 2 | 12.1% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 0.88× | 8.52 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion by 2 | 9.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 0.78× | 13.73 |
| Coventry by 3+ | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 0.68× | 13.74 |
| Brighton and Hove Albion by 3+ | 4.9% | 2.8% | 6.6% | 0.43× | 35.48 |
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
|
Diego Gómez | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
|
Yasin Ayari | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 10' |
|
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 12' |
|
Olivier Boscagli | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Malick Yalcouyé |
| 16' |
|
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
|
Malick Yalcouyé | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 17' |
|
Malick Yalcouyé | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 20' |
|
Ephron Mason-Clark | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Taiwo Awoniyi |
| 20' |
|
Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Rudoni |
| 22' |
|
Jack Rudoni | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jay Dasilva |
| 26' |
|
Bobby Thomas | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
|
Jack Rudoni | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jay Dasilva |
| 31' |
|
Frank Onyeka | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
|
Bobby Thomas | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jack Rudoni |
| 34' |
|
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pascal Groß |
| 36' |
|
Pascal Groß | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Olivier Boscagli |
| 37' |
|
Ephron Mason-Clark | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Rudoni |
| 38' |
|
Ethan Pinnock | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
|
Matt Grimes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
|
Diego Gómez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
|
Luka Vuskovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
|
Ephron Mason-Clark | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Rudoni |
| 46' |
|
Luka Vuskovic | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 50' |
|
Malick Yalcouyé | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 69' |
|
Pascal Groß | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 73' |
|
Chema Andres | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
|
Brandon Thomas-Asante | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aurèle Amenda |
| 80' |
|
Ibrahim Osman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 80' |
|
Yasin Ayari | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
|
Bobby Thomas | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Milan van Ewijk |
| 82' |
|
Lewis Dunk | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Chema Andres |
| 85' |
|
Ibrahim Osman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 88' |
|
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 90' |
|
Yasin Ayari | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 92' |
|
Brandon Thomas-Asante | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Caleb Yirenkyi |
| 93' |
|
Yasin Ayari | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pascal Groß |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.79 | 0.66 | 0.89 |
| Yasin Ayari DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Maxim De Cuyper AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 0.77 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Diego Gómez AMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Olivier Boscagli DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Malick Yalcouyé AMC | 66 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.01 | 0.56 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Ibrahim Osman Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Pascal Struijk Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Costinha Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Coventry
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Thomas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ethan Pinnock DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jay Dasilva DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Carl Rushworth GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Milan van Ewijk DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Matt Grimes MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jack Rudoni AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ephron Mason-Clark AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi FW | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| Sidiki Chérif Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Caleb Yirenkyi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Victor Torp Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |