Coventry v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 12 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Coventry

4–1

1.66 – 2.22 xG

Newcastle United

Shots

9 – 19

On target

6 – 5

Shots in box

6 – 11

xG per shot

0.19 – 0.12

Set-piece xG

0.83 – 0.02

Goals − xG

+2.33 – -1.22

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 12 Oct, 11:06 · 8h before kick-off

Coventry win

32.2%

Draw

24.1%

Newcastle United win

43.7%

322444

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-2 9.1%
0-1 8.2%
2-1 7.6%
1-0 6.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.4%	Under 2.5	42.6%
BTTS yes	59.7%	BTTS no	40.3%
Coventry 1+	74.4%	Coventry 2+	39.5%
Newcastle United 1+	80.3%	Newcastle United 2+	48.2%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.62. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1633 Elo against 1481.
Newcastle United have created 1.36 xG a match over their last five while Coventry have allowed 1.72.
Away from home Newcastle United average 0.91 xG a match.

Risk factors

Coventry have only 5 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Newcastle United have an estimated 43.7% win probability, against 32.2% for Coventry and 24.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Coventry and 1.62 for Newcastle United.

Why Coventry

Coventry have created 0.99 xG a match over their last five while Newcastle United have allowed 1.60. At home Coventry average 1.11 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Newcastle United were missing 0.77 expected goal involvements a match against 0.44.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 24.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Newcastle United can win

Newcastle United carry the stronger rating, 1633 Elo against 1481. Newcastle United have created 1.36 xG a match over their last five while Coventry have allowed 1.72. Away from home Newcastle United average 0.91 xG a match.

Key players

Coventry's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Taiwo Awoniyi (0.30), Jack Rudoni (0.23), Jay Dasilva (0.17). Newcastle United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Guimarães (0.31), Nick Woltemade (0.30), Yoane Wissa (0.27).

Availability

1 of Coventry's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Newcastle United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Newcastle United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Coventry: 39% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.15 xG a match from set pieces. Newcastle United: 49% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 19.4 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-12 15:03 · team_stats 2026-10-12 06:06 · availability 2026-10-12 15:06 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Newcastle United are the model's most likely outcome at 43.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Coventry are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 8 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLWWLL last 8 scored 6 from 8.2 xG conceded 15 from 12.4 xG

Newcastle United have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 18 from 17.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWLDWDLWLL last 10 scored 14 from 12.7 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	322444	1.36–1.62	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-goals	212851	0.89–1.53	1-1 13%	43%	47%	Away ✗
dc-xg	342640	1.30–1.44	1-1 12%	51%	55%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	372539	1.43–1.48	1-1 12%	56%	59%	Away ✗
deep	342640	1.30–1.44	1-1 12%	51%	55%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win	40.4%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Coventry to win	34.1%	30.5%	42.9%	0.71×	3.28
Draw	25.6%	27.9%	24.9%	1.12×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & not both score	20.8%	21.8%	17.0%	1.28×	4.59
Newcastle United & both teams score	19.5%	18.0%	15.4%	1.17×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Coventry & not both score	17.3%	18.0%	20.1%	0.90×	5.56
Coventry & both teams score	16.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.56
Draw & not both score	6.5%	8.3%	5.0%	1.67×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United & over 1.5	31.0%	30.7%	25.4%	1.21×	3.25
Newcastle United & under 3.5	27.9%	26.1%	21.7%	1.20×	3.84
Coventry & over 1.5	25.6%	26.1%	36.6%	0.71×	3.84
Newcastle United & over 2.5	24.3%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.63
Coventry & under 3.5	24.1%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Coventry & over 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	30.2%	0.72×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Newcastle United & under 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	12.5%	1.44×	5.56
Coventry & under 2.5	13.9%	12.8%	12.7%	1.01×	7.79
Newcastle United & over 3.5	12.4%	12.8%	10.7%	1.20×	7.79
Newcastle United & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.62
Coventry & over 3.5	9.9%	7.9%	16.3%	0.49×	12.62
Coventry & under 1.5	8.4%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	8.7%	0.92×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	8.7%	0.92×	12.62
Draw & under 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	5.0%	1.59×	12.62

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (1UP)	56.9%	58.1%	51.5%	1.13×	1.72
Coventry (1UP)	51.4%	52.5%	62.0%	0.85×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2UP)	40.4%	46.9%	34.5%	1.36×	2.13
Coventry (2UP)	34.1%	31.0%	44.6%	0.69×	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win 2nd half	36.3%	36.1%	32.8%	1.10×	2.77
2nd half drawn	35.1%	36.1%	31.1%	1.16×	2.77
Coventry to win 2nd half	28.5%	26.3%	36.1%	0.73×	3.80

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.3%	79.2%	79.8%	0.99×	1.26
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.9%	57.9%	0.95×	1.82
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.1%	42.1%	1.07×	2.22
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.7%	20.8%	20.2%	1.03×	4.81

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.2%	82.5%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Coventry over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	54.2%	58.4%	0.93×	1.84
Coventry under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	45.8%	41.6%	1.10×	2.19
Coventry over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.8%	17.5%	24.8%	0.71×	5.71

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (+2.5)	94.9%	92.1%	89.2%	1.03×	1.09
Newcastle United (+1.5)	85.1%	88.4%	76.1%	1.16×	1.13
Newcastle United (+0.5)	65.9%	68.6%	57.1%	1.20×	1.46
Coventry (+0.5)	59.6%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75
Newcastle United (-0.5)	40.4%	42.9%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Coventry (-0.5)	34.1%	31.4%	42.9%	0.73×	3.19
Coventry (-1.5)	14.9%	11.6%	23.9%	0.48×	8.65
Coventry (-2.5)	5.1%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede	72.7%	76.7%	78.1%	0.98×	1.30
Newcastle United clean sheet	27.3%	23.3%	21.9%	1.06×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United clean sheet in 1st half	57.0%	58.0%	49.0%	1.18×	1.72
Newcastle United to concede in 1st half	43.0%	42.0%	51.0%	0.82×	2.38

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to concede in 2nd half	52.0%	53.8%	58.4%	0.92×	1.86
Newcastle United clean sheet in 2nd half	48.0%	46.2%	41.6%	1.11×	2.17

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United over 2.5 corners	80.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Newcastle United under 6.5 corners	75.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Newcastle United over 3.5 corners	65.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Newcastle United under 5.5 corners	64.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Newcastle United under 4.5 corners	50.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Newcastle United over 4.5 corners	50.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Newcastle United over 5.5 corners	36.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Newcastle United under 3.5 corners	34.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Newcastle United over 6.5 corners	24.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Newcastle United under 2.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 3.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Newcastle United under 2.5 goals	82.5%	81.4%	84.9%	0.96×	1.23
Newcastle United over 0.5 goals	76.2%	76.2%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Newcastle United under 1.5 goals	58.0%	59.3%	60.5%	0.98×	1.69
Newcastle United over 1.5 goals	42.0%	40.7%	39.5%	1.03×	2.46
Newcastle United under 0.5 goals	23.8%	23.8%	25.0%	0.95×	4.21
Newcastle United over 2.5 goals	17.5%	18.6%	15.1%	1.23×	5.39
Newcastle United over 3.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	5.4%	1.42×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United under 1.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.3%	89.2%	1.00×	1.12
Newcastle United under 0.5 in 1st half	56.9%	61.7%	59.7%	1.03×	1.62
Newcastle United over 0.5 in 1st half	43.1%	38.3%	40.3%	0.95×	2.61
Newcastle United over 1.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.7%	10.8%	0.99×	9.34

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United scores more in 2nd half	40.6%	43.5%	40.9%	1.06×	2.30
Newcastle United scores equally in both	37.0%	37.2%	37.5%	0.99×	2.69
Newcastle United scores more in 1st half	22.4%	21.7%	21.7%	1.00×	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry (away no bet)	57.1%	57.3%	63.3%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.9%	42.7%	36.7%	1.16×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United even goals	52.8%	52.7%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Newcastle United odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.2%	87.7%	80.0%	1.10×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.8%	12.3%	20.0%	0.61×	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.9%	58.1%	70.4%	0.83×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.1%	41.9%	29.6%	1.41×	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.5%	55.1%	61.5%	0.90×	1.82
Newcastle United to score 2+ in a row	33.4%	29.0%	29.8%	0.97×	3.44
Coventry to score 2+ in a row	28.6%	25.3%	39.1%	0.65×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	16.3%	26.2%	0.62×	6.13
Newcastle United to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.0%	10.2%	1.18×	8.31
Coventry to score 3+ in a row	8.4%	5.7%	16.5%	0.34×	17.68

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry corners (+3.5)	84.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Newcastle United corners (+3.5)	78.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Coventry corners (+2.5)	78.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Newcastle United corners (+2.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Coventry corners (+1.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Newcastle United corners (+1.5)	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Coventry corners (-1.5)	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Newcastle United corners (-1.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Coventry corners (-2.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Newcastle United corners (-2.5)	22.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Coventry corners (-3.5)	21.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Newcastle United corners (-3.5)	15.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	73.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	63.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.7%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	26.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.1%	11.5%	11.4%	1.00×	8.72
0-1	9.3%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.50
1-0	8.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.50
0-0	6.5%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.50
0-2	6.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.50
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.50
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.50
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.34
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.57×	58.35
3-0	2.4%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.34
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.33
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.34
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.29×	58.35
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.43×	58.35
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.35
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.76×	58.35
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.29×	58.35
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.87×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.15×	58.35
Any other score	2.6%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.34
0-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.34
0-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.35
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.33
1-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.4%	1.21×	58.34

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (2nd half DNB)	56.0%	59.3%	47.6%	1.25×	1.69
Coventry (2nd half DNB)	44.0%	40.7%	52.4%	0.78×	2.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United leading at HT (DNB)	50.1%	54.1%	40.4%	1.34×	1.85
Coventry leading at HT (DNB)	49.9%	45.9%	59.6%	0.77×	2.18

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry or Newcastle United (12)	74.4%	72.1%	75.1%	0.96×	1.39
Newcastle United or draw (X2)	65.9%	69.5%	57.1%	1.22×	1.44
Coventry or draw (1X)	59.6%	57.1%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw at HT	71.8%	75.2%	64.2%	1.17×	1.33
Coventry or draw at HT	71.7%	75.1%	75.8%	0.99×	1.33
Coventry or Newcastle United at HT	56.5%	57.1%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw (1UP)	65.9%	75.8%	65.4%	1.16×	1.32
Coventry or draw (1UP)	59.6%	63.5%	74.3%	0.85×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United or draw in 2nd half	71.5%	73.7%	63.9%	1.15×	1.36
Coventry or Newcastle United in 2nd half	64.9%	63.9%	68.9%	0.93×	1.56
Coventry or draw in 2nd half	63.7%	63.9%	67.2%	0.95×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.4%	61.5%	57.3%	1.07×	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.6%	38.5%	42.7%	0.90×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (DNB)	54.2%	51.0%	43.0%	1.19×	1.96
Coventry (DNB)	45.8%	49.0%	57.0%	0.86×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score first	49.1%	46.0%	43.4%	1.06×	2.18
Coventry to score first	44.4%	41.8%	51.7%	0.81×	2.39
No goal scored	6.5%	7.5%	5.0%	1.50×	13.34

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.4%	55.0%	58.1%	0.95×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.6%	45.0%	41.9%	1.07×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.3%	41.6%	46.8%	0.89×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	36.5%	38.4%	30.1%	1.28×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.1%	12.4%	11.4%	1.08×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.4%	82.6%	82.0%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.6%	17.4%	18.0%	0.97×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.8%	67.2%	68.5%	0.98×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.2%	32.8%	31.5%	1.04×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.8%	59.9%	55.7%	1.07×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.6%	20.7%	24.7%	0.84×	4.83
Both score 1st half only	12.9%	10.7%	12.9%	0.83×	9.33
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.77

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.5%	83.2%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.6%	16.8%	19.7%	0.86×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.0%	53.2%	61.4%	0.87×	1.88
A half without a goal	46.0%	46.8%	38.6%	1.21×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.1%	26.6%	32.7%	0.81×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.3%	22.9%	18.2%	1.26×	4.36
7+ goals	2.2%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score exactly 1	34.2%	33.8%	35.6%	0.95×	2.96
Newcastle United to score exactly 2	24.5%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Newcastle United to score exactly 0	23.8%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48
Newcastle United to score 3+	17.5%	19.6%	15.1%	1.30×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.6%	29.2%	1.22×	2.81
Coventry to score exactly 0	27.3%	26.6%	21.9%	1.21×	3.76
Coventry to score exactly 2	23.0%	23.3%	26.2%	0.89×	4.29
Coventry to score 3+	14.2%	14.3%	22.8%	0.63×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.5%	42.9%	40.1%	1.07×	2.33
Newcastle United leading at HT	28.3%	24.9%	24.2%	1.03×	4.02
Coventry leading at HT	28.2%	24.9%	35.8%	0.69×	4.02

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United -1: 1	59.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Newcastle United -1: X	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Newcastle United -1: 2	19.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:1)	65.9%	65.2%	57.1%	1.14×	1.54
Draw (0:1)	19.2%	17.8%	19.1%	0.93×	5.61
Coventry (0:1)	14.9%	13.7%	23.9%	0.57×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:2)	85.1%	87.0%	76.1%	1.14×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.8%	7.7%	13.2%	0.58×	13.02
Coventry (0:2)	5.1%	7.7%	10.8%	0.71×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:3)	94.9%	92.7%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.17
Coventry (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.27

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	82.05
Coventry (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.91×	82.13

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry (1:0)	59.6%	58.5%	67.7%	0.86×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	21.2%	21.7%	16.7%	1.30×	4.61
Newcastle United (1:0)	19.2%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry (2:0)	80.8%	84.6%	84.3%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.0%	10.3%	9.2%	1.11×	9.72
Newcastle United (2:0)	7.2%	6.4%	6.6%	0.97×	15.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.5%	48.4%	49.7%	0.97×	2.07
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.2%	25.7%	1.02×	3.81
Halves equal	24.8%	24.3%	24.6%	0.99×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry to concede	76.2%	76.0%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Coventry clean sheet	23.8%	24.0%	25.0%	0.96×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry clean sheet in 1st half	56.9%	61.7%	59.7%	1.03×	1.62
Coventry to concede in 1st half	43.1%	38.3%	40.3%	0.95×	2.61

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry to concede in 2nd half	58.1%	55.2%	57.9%	0.95×	1.81
Coventry clean sheet in 2nd half	41.9%	44.8%	42.1%	1.06×	2.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry over 2.5 corners	83.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Coventry over 3.5 corners	70.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Coventry under 6.5 corners	69.7%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Coventry under 5.5 corners	57.6%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Coventry over 4.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Coventry under 4.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Coventry over 5.5 corners	42.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Coventry over 6.5 corners	30.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Coventry under 3.5 corners	29.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Coventry under 2.5 corners	16.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry under 3.5 goals	95.7%	96.4%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Coventry under 2.5 goals	85.8%	87.3%	77.2%	1.13×	1.15
Coventry over 0.5 goals	72.7%	74.2%	78.1%	0.95×	1.35
Coventry under 1.5 goals	62.8%	63.6%	51.0%	1.25×	1.57
Coventry over 1.5 goals	37.2%	36.4%	49.0%	0.74×	2.75
Coventry under 0.5 goals	27.3%	25.8%	21.9%	1.18×	3.88
Coventry over 2.5 goals	14.2%	12.7%	22.8%	0.56×	7.85
Coventry over 3.5 goals	4.3%	3.6%	8.4%	0.43×	27.43

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry under 1.5 in 1st half	89.0%	90.0%	84.4%	1.07×	1.11
Coventry under 0.5 in 1st half	57.0%	57.7%	49.0%	1.18×	1.73
Coventry over 0.5 in 1st half	43.0%	42.3%	51.0%	0.83×	2.37
Coventry over 1.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.0%	15.6%	0.65×	9.95

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry scores equally in both	39.8%	37.7%	37.7%	1.00×	2.66
Coventry scores more in 2nd half	35.4%	37.6%	36.1%	1.04×	2.66
Coventry scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.2%	26.2%	0.81×	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United (home no bet)	61.2%	59.9%	56.5%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	38.8%	40.1%	43.5%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry even goals	53.7%	50.7%	54.1%	0.94×	1.97
Coventry odd goals	46.3%	49.3%	45.9%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.4%	32.8%	28.3%	1.16×	3.04
HT 0-1	18.3%	18.6%	14.7%	1.27×	5.37
HT 1-0	18.2%	18.6%	21.3%	0.87×	5.37
HT 1-1	10.3%	10.8%	10.9%	0.99×	9.24
HT 0-2	5.2%	7.0%	4.4%	1.58×	14.38
HT 2-0	5.1%	7.0%	8.1%	0.86×	14.38
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.95
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.02
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	3.7%	0.65×	42.02
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	1.0%	2.37×	42.16

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United at HT / Newcastle United at FT	21.7%	21.3%	16.7%	1.27×	4.70
Coventry at HT / Coventry at FT	19.7%	16.8%	26.1%	0.64×	5.95
Draw at HT / Newcastle United at FT	15.8%	16.8%	12.3%	1.36×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.8%	13.9%	1.21×	5.97
Draw at HT / Coventry at FT	12.4%	12.7%	14.0%	0.91×	7.87
Coventry at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	6.4%	0.93×	16.70
Newcastle United at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.66
Coventry at HT / Newcastle United at FT	2.9%	3.5%	3.4%	1.02×	28.73
Newcastle United at HT / Coventry at FT	1.9%	3.5%	2.9%	1.19×	28.76

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to score last	49.1%	46.6%	45.0%	1.03×	2.15
Coventry to score last	44.4%	40.1%	50.0%	0.80×	2.49
No goal scored	6.5%	7.5%	5.0%	1.50×	13.34

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.5%	92.6%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Newcastle United to lead by 1 at any time	56.9%	55.0%	51.5%	1.07×	1.82
Coventry to lead by 1 at any time	51.4%	50.7%	62.0%	0.82×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.1%	44.3%	50.5%	0.88×	2.26
Newcastle United to lead by 2 at any time	25.5%	25.4%	21.1%	1.20×	3.94
Coventry to lead by 2 at any time	20.8%	19.6%	29.7%	0.66×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.0%	15.0%	21.2%	0.71×	6.68
Newcastle United to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	8.2%	0.82×	14.90
Coventry to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.7%	13.2%	0.51×	15.01

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry most corners	49.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Newcastle United most corners	40.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	88.3%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.3%	78.7%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.5%	72.4%	79.0%	0.92×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.8%	68.8%	75.1%	0.92×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.2%	63.4%	59.6%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.2%	48.5%	55.9%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.4%	48.5%	46.4%	1.05×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.5%	48.5%	52.0%	0.93×	2.06
1-2 goals	42.1%	43.6%	36.5%	1.20×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.2%	39.2%	41.5%	0.94×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.1%	30.2%	32.7%	0.92×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.4%	24.5%	28.8%	0.85×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.0%	14.8%	14.4%	1.03×	6.76
7+ goals	2.2%	2.6%	2.8%	0.90×	39.19

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United never behind	42.1%	48.4%	38.0%	1.27×	2.07
Coventry never behind	36.6%	43.9%	48.5%	0.91×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	49.0%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	51.0%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.7%	53.9%	1.07×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.3%	46.1%	0.92×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.8%	87.6%	82.8%	1.06×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	81.8%	0.95×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.7%	72.4%	64.5%	1.12×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.4%	52.5%	58.6%	0.90×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	48.6%	47.5%	41.4%	1.15×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.3%	27.6%	35.5%	0.78×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	18.2%	1.24×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	14.2%	12.4%	17.2%	0.72×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	5.0%	1.55×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.92

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.5%	92.4%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.3%	81.1%	79.0%	1.03×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.9%	67.4%	76.3%	0.88×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.4%	61.9%	53.8%	1.15×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.6%	38.1%	46.2%	0.83×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.1%	32.6%	23.7%	1.37×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.7%	18.9%	21.0%	0.90×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.5%	7.6%	7.5%	1.01×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	35.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.5%	89.0%	87.3%	1.02×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.9%	68.7%	64.1%	1.07×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.6%	68.6%	71.7%	0.96×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.4%	31.4%	28.3%	1.11×	3.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.1%	31.3%	35.9%	0.87×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.5%	11.0%	12.7%	0.87×	9.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.9%	79.6%	84.8%	0.94×	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.2%	79.6%	75.7%	1.05×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	52.7%	45.5%	1.16×	1.90
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	47.3%	54.5%	0.87×	2.12
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.8%	20.4%	24.3%	0.84×	4.89
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.1%	20.4%	15.2%	1.34×	4.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry not to score in both halves	77.6%	78.4%	68.7%	1.14×	1.28
Newcastle United not to score in both halves	74.9%	73.9%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Newcastle United to score in both halves	25.1%	26.1%	23.1%	1.13×	3.83
Coventry to score in both halves	22.4%	21.6%	31.3%	0.69×	4.63

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.4%	58.7%	58.1%	1.01×	1.71
Only Newcastle United scores	20.8%	22.2%	17.0%	1.31×	4.50
Only Coventry scores	17.3%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Neither team scores	6.5%	7.1%	5.0%	1.43×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.3%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.8%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.1%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.3%	7.6%	10.5%	0.73×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	6.5%	7.6%	5.0%	1.52×	13.13
6 or more goals	5.9%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.13

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.2%	35.9%	1.04×	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.4%	35.5%	28.3%	1.25×	2.82
2 goals in 1st half	20.6%	21.5%	23.2%	0.93×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	10.5%	10.9%	12.7%	0.86×	9.15

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.7%	45.6%	54.5%	0.84×	2.19
1 goal in 2nd half	32.2%	33.7%	30.4%	1.11×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	20.1%	22.4%	15.2%	1.47×	4.46

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry not to win both halves	92.0%	94.2%	86.6%	1.09×	1.06
Newcastle United not to win both halves	89.7%	88.1%	91.3%	0.96×	1.14
Newcastle United to win both halves	10.3%	11.9%	8.7%	1.38×	8.39
Coventry to win both halves	8.0%	5.8%	13.4%	0.43×	17.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Newcastle United to win either half	54.3%	54.3%	48.4%	1.12×	1.84
Coventry to win neither half	51.3%	54.2%	41.5%	1.31×	1.85
Coventry to win either half	48.7%	45.8%	58.5%	0.78×	2.18
Newcastle United to win neither half	45.7%	45.7%	51.6%	0.89×	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Coventry not to win to nil	82.7%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Newcastle United not to win to nil	79.2%	78.2%	83.0%	0.94×	1.28
Newcastle United to win to nil	20.8%	21.8%	17.0%	1.29×	4.58
Coventry to win to nil	17.3%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.6%	27.9%	24.9%	1.12×	3.59
Newcastle United by 1	21.2%	24.1%	16.7%	1.45×	4.15
Coventry by 1	19.2%	17.0%	19.1%	0.89×	5.87
Newcastle United by 2	12.0%	11.7%	9.2%	1.27×	8.51
Coventry by 2	9.8%	7.2%	13.2%	0.55×	13.89
Newcastle United by 3+	7.2%	7.2%	6.6%	1.09×	13.90
Coventry by 3+	5.1%	7.2%	10.8%	0.66×	13.91

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Coventry 1.67 xGNewcastle United 2.22 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Coventry attacking right Newcastle United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
5'	Coventry	Jack Rudoni	0.76		Left Foot	Goal	—
9'	Newcastle United	Harvey Barnes	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Nico González
12'	Newcastle United	Harvey Barnes	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Joe Willock
22'	Newcastle United	Harvey Barnes	0.12	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
22'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lewis Hall
28'	Coventry	Sidiki Chérif	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Milan van Ewijk
29'	Newcastle United	Jacob Murphy	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
30'	Newcastle United	Jacob Murphy	0.55	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Harvey Barnes
37'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Harvey Barnes
42'	Newcastle United	Matias Fernandez-Pardo	0.81	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Nico González
43'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Nico González
47'	Coventry	Sidiki Chérif	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
49'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.13	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Jacob Murphy
52'	Newcastle United	Yoane Wissa	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Harvey Barnes
54'	Coventry	Sidiki Chérif	0.43	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
58'	Newcastle United	Joe Willock	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Jacob Murphy
60'	Newcastle United	Bazoumana Touré	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
69'	Newcastle United	Sven Botman	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Nico González
71'	Newcastle United	Lewis Hall	0.02	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Nico González
74'	Newcastle United	Yoane Wissa	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
79'	Newcastle United	Bazoumana Touré	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Matias Fernandez-Pardo
80'	Coventry	Ellis Simms	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Brandon Thomas-Asante
83'	Coventry	Brandon Thomas-Asante	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
83'	Coventry	Frank Onyeka	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
84'	Coventry	Stephen Mfuni	0.07	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Victor Torp
85'	Coventry	Stephen Mfuni	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Jay Dasilva
89'	Newcastle United	William Osula	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Nico González
91'	Newcastle United	Amar Dedic	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Harvey Barnes

Players

Newcastle United

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW	90	0	0	1	1	0.81	0.03	1.02
Harvey Barnes AML	90	0	0	3	4	0.24	0.65	1.02
Sven Botman DC	90	1	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.87
Lewis Hall DL	90	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.03	0.89
Lukás Hornícek GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Nico González DMC	90	0	1	0	6	0.00	1.00	1.76
Malick Thiaw DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.37
Yoane Wissa AMC	80	0	0	2	0	0.09	0.00	0.22
Jacob Murphy AMR	61	0	0	2	3	0.57	0.22	0.93
Joe Willock DMC	61	0	0	5	1	0.36	0.07	0.48
Lewis Miley DR	61	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.37
Bazoumana Touré Sub	29	0	0	2	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Amar Dedic Sub	29	0	0	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.05
Joelinton Sub	29	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.05
William Osula Sub	10	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Dan Burn Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02

Coventry

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Brandon Thomas-Asante AMR	90	0	1	1	1	0.02	0.09	0.54
Carl Rushworth GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ethan Pinnock DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Bobby Thomas DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jay Dasilva DL	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.08	0.08
Milan van Ewijk DR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.11	0.11
Jack Rudoni AMC	85	1	0	1	0	0.76	0.00	0.00
Matt Grimes DMC	85	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sidiki Chérif FW	80	1	0	3	0	0.61	0.00	0.61
Caleb Yirenkyi DMC	80	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ephron Mason-Clark AML	63	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto Sub	27	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ellis Simms Sub	10	1	0	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.17
Frank Onyeka Sub	10	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Stephen Mfuni Sub	5	1	0	2	0	0.15	0.00	0.08
Victor Torp Sub	5	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.07	0.08

Coventry v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Coventry

Why the draw is live

Why Newcastle United can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Newcastle United

Coventry

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