Cremonese v Benevento — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 31 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 13.7%
- 1-0 10.5%
- 2-1 9.4%
- 2-0 9.4%
- 0-0 9.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 47.0% | Under 2.5 | 53.0% |
| BTTS yes | 51.5% | BTTS no | 48.5% |
| Cremonese 1+ | 78.8% | Cremonese 2+ | 45.9% |
| Benevento 1+ | 63.3% | Benevento 2+ | 26.5% |
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Cremonese.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Benevento have only 2 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Cremonese have an estimated 48.5% win probability, against 28.6% for the draw and 22.9% for Benevento. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.55 for Cremonese and 1.00 for Benevento.
Why Cremonese
Nothing in the data singles out Cremonese.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 28.6%. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Benevento can win
Benevento carry the stronger rating, 1475 Elo against 1390. Away from home Benevento average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
Cremonese's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Federico Bonazzoli (0.32), Jamie Vardy (0.29), Jari Vandeputte (0.22).
Availability
1 of Cremonese's top three contributors did not start their last match. Cremonese had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Cremonese: Alberto Grassi (suspended). No lineup on record for Benevento, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Cremonese: 54% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.13 xG a match from set pieces. Benevento: 51% possession, 20.0 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Cremonese are the model's most likely outcome at 48.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 32/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.82–0.97 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.