Cremonese v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.40 – +0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
26.0%
Draw
29.6%
Bologna win
44.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLLDLDWLW last 10
scored 12
from 15.4 xG
conceded 13
from 13.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.13–1.50 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 1.40 xGBologna 1.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bologna |
João Mário | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Juan Miranda |
| 9' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 13' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Mário |
| 15' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Juan Miranda |
| 25' |
 Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 32' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Bologna |
Martin Vitík | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nikola Moro |
| 41' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 42' |
Bologna |
João Mário | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Mário |
| 55' |
Cremonese |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 58' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 70' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 70' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 75' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 90' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Castro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.04 | 0.94 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Nikola Moro MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.65 |
| João Mário DR | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Jonathan Rowe ML | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Federico Bernardeschi MR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Tommaso Pobega Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Alessio Zerbin MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Grassi DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Okereke Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Warren Bondo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Morten Thorsby Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |