Cremonese v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 16 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
10 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.47 – +2.85
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
27.6%
Draw
28.4%
Fiorentina win
44.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–1.77 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 1.47 xGFiorentina 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.44 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Luperto |
| 3' |
 Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Brescianini |
| 3' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Robin Gosens |
| 6' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 24' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rolando Mandragora |
| 31' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Robin Gosens |
| 37' |
Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 53' |
Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Bonazzoli |
| 56' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Federico Ceccherini |
| 56' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Fiorentina |
Marco Brescianini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 60' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Brescianini |
| 64' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Romano Floriani |
| 65' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Federico Bonazzoli |
| 66' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 67' |
Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milan Djuric |
| 67' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 69' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Roberto Piccoli |
| 76' |
Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 82' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 88' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.72 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.63 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Fabiano Parisi FWR | 82 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 82 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FWL | 77 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 76 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniele Rugani Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.10 | 0.41 |
| Milan Djuric FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Francesco Folino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Federico Ceccherini DC | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Romano Floriani DML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Morten Thorsby MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Okereke Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Jari Vandeputte Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Filippo Terracciano Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |