Cremonese v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 19
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 13
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.49
Goals − xG
-1.36 – -1.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
38.5%
Draw
28.4%
Genoa win
33.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLDLWLW last 10
scored 7
from 9.9 xG
conceded 16
from 15.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.37 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 1.36 xGGenoa 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 8' |
 Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 8' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 9' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 11' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 27' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 29' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Junior Messias |
| 31' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 33' |
Cremonese |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Payero |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 35' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 35' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 38' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Vásquez |
| 42' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morten Thorsby |
| 44' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 47' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 49' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Vásquez |
| 51' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 52' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 56' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 62' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 64' |
Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Milan Djuric |
| 64' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Cremonese |
Morten Thorsby | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 73' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Baschirotto |
| 78' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 80' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.18 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tommaso Baldanzi |
| 91' |
Genoa |
Alex Amorim | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Thorsby |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Floriani |
| 93' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Grassi |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| Justin Bijlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.39 |
| Junior Messias AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.46 |
| Vitinha AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Aarón Martín Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alex Amorim Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Thorsby MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Milan Djuric FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| Martín Payero MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Federico Bonazzoli Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Tommaso Barbieri Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |