Cremonese v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 15
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.43
Goals − xG
-0.51 – -0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
11.6%
Draw
18.1%
Internazionale win
70.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Internazionale have scored 27 from 28.9 expected and conceded 14 from 12.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DDWWWWDWWW last 10
scored 27
from 28.9 xG
conceded 14
from 12.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.77–2.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.87–2.58 | 0-2 11% | 67% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 0.51 xGInternazionale 2.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 7' |
 Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 9' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 10' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 15' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 17' |
Cremonese |
Federico Ceccherini | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 22' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 30' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Henrique |
| 38' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Grassi |
| 46' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 51' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 68' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Marcus Thuram |
| 79' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 83' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 83' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 83' |
Cremonese |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Cremonese |
Milan Djuric | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 91' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Henrikh Mkhitaryan |
| 92' |
Cremonese |
Romano Floriani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.30 | 1.04 | 1.38 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.83 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.24 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 75 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Davide Frattesi MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Marcus Thuram Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| Matteo Darmian Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Zerbin MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Folino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Filippo Terracciano DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Federico Ceccherini DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mikayil Faye Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dennis Johnsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |