Cremonese v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 4 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 6
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+0.45 – +1.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
20.8%
Draw
28.3%
Lazio win
50.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Lazio are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWDWWWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 8
from 13.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.68–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.00–1.57 | 0-1 12% | 47% | 50% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 0.55 xGLazio 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenneth Taylor |
| 5' |
Lazio |
Oliver Provstgaard | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 14' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 21' |
Lazio |
Patric | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
 Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Romano Floriani |
| 32' |
Lazio |
Oliver Provstgaard | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 38' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Grassi |
| 45' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 51' |
Cremonese |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tijjani Noslin |
| 63' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martín Payero |
| 65' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Payero |
| 72' |
Cremonese |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Cremonese |
Warren Bondo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 89' |
Cremonese |
Warren Bondo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bonazzoli |
| 91' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Boulaye Dia |
| 96' |
Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Provstgaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Toma Basic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
| Edoardo Motta GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| Patric MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Daniel Maldini FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 41 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| Nicolo Rovella Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pedro Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani MR | 71 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Matteo Bianchetti Sub | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antonio Sanabria FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Alessio Zerbin ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Warren Bondo Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jamie Vardy Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Barbieri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |