Cremonese v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.23 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.08 – -1.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
43.8%
Draw
33.1%
Lecce win
23.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLWLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.0 xG
conceded 15
from 23.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.07 | 1-1 13% | 42% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 2.08 xGLecce 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 6' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 7' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 13' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 34' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bonazzoli |
| 45' |
Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 46' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 47' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 52' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 65' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Romano Floriani |
| 67' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Lecce |
Francesco Camarda | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riccardo Sottil |
| 71' |
Cremonese |
Matteo Bianchetti | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonio Sanabria |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Alessio Zerbin |
| 92' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 95' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Medon Berisha AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Lameck Banda AML | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Riccardo Sottil Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Sala Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Payero MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Romano Floriani DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.11 |
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.05 | 0.61 |
| Franco Vázquez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Folino Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |