Cremonese v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 15
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
2 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.25
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -0.92
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
54.0%
Draw
22.3%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
23.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.90–1.19 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 0.17 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Emanuele Valeri | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Circati |
| 8' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 31' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mateo Pellegrino | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Cutrone |
| 46' |
 Cremonese |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 55' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mandela Keita |
| 60' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
| 69' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrián Bernabé |
| 70' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Adrián Bernabé | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Niakhate Ndiaye |
| 70' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Oliver Sørensen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pontus Almqvist |
| 80' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pontus Almqvist |
| 80' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Sørensen |
| 80' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Pontus Almqvist | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Cremonese |
Faris Moumbagna | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dennis Johnsen |
| 89' |
Cremonese |
Franco Vázquez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 90' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Christian Ordóñez | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 90' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Mathias Løvik | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Ordóñez |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cutrone FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Oliver Sørensen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| Emanuele Valeri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Enrico Del Prato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Pontus Almqvist DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Adrián Bernabé MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Christian Ordóñez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Mathias Løvik Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Franco Vázquez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sanabria FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Grassi Sub | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Ceccherini Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Michele Collocolo MC | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Faris Moumbagna Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Johnsen Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.01 |