Cremonese v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 0
On target
5 – 0
Shots in box
5 – 0
xG per shot
0.13 – —
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.73 – +0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
41.8%
Draw
27.4%
Pisa win
30.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 11.2 xG
conceded 23
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.22–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.41–1.33 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 1.27 xGPisa 0.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Pisa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28' |
 Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 30' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Cremonese |
Matteo Bianchetti | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 50' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jari Vandeputte |
| 55' |
Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 83' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Luperto |
| 85' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Alessio Zerbin |
Players
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Tommaso Barbieri MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Filippo Terracciano DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Jari Vandeputte ML | 73 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.87 | 0.57 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Morten Thorsby Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| David Okereke Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Folino Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pisa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Canestrelli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Touré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Semper GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Caracciolo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ebenezer Akinsanmiro MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isak Vural AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filip Stojilkovic FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felipe Loyola MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Angori Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arturo Calabresi Sub | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mehdi Leris DML | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefano Moreo AMC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malthe Højholt Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Henrik Meister Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rosen Bozhinov DC | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Piccinini Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |