Cremonese v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 20 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 8
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.23 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
42.2%
Draw
31.0%
Udinese win
26.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.15–1.47 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 1.23 xGUdinese 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.61 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Jari Vandeputte |
| 21' |
 Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 27' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Cremonese |
Matteo Bianchetti | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 30' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 41' |
Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Filippo Terracciano |
| 43' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 54' |
Cremonese |
Martín Payero | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 59' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bonazzoli |
| 60' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Buksa |
| 72' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Cremonese |
Franco Vázquez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saba Goglichidze |
| 90' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremy Sarmiento |
| 92' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lennon Miller |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.83 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 87 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.60 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Vakoun Bayo FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| Keinan Davis Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Silvestri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.68 | 0.16 |
| Martín Payero MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Barbieri Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dachi Lordkipanidze Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Sarmiento Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Franco Vázquez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |