Cruz Azul v Toluca — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 September 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627

MEX-Liga MX results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Cruz Azul

23:00 UTC

Toluca

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 447h before kick-off

Cruz Azul win

39.6%

model 39.1%

Draw

29.4%

model 26.5%

Toluca win

31.0%

model 34.4%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.4%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.1%
1-0 7.0%
0-1 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.4%	Under 2.5	43.6%
BTTS yes	60.3%	BTTS no	39.7%
Cruz Azul 1+	78.2%	Cruz Azul 2+	45.0%
Toluca 1+	75.8%	Toluca 2+	41.5%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

36/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Toluca (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 53%

64.0% fair odds 1.56

moderate signal · 1009 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cruz Azul (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 379 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Cruz Azul.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cruz Azul have an estimated 39.6% win probability, against 31.0% for Toluca and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for Cruz Azul and 1.42 for Toluca.

Why Cruz Azul

Nothing in the data singles out Cruz Azul.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.52 to 1.42. Draws run at 24% in this competition.

Why Toluca can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cruz Azul, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Toluca, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cruz Azul: 58% possession, 20.2 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Toluca: 63% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Cruz Azul are the model's most likely outcome at 39.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392734	1.52–1.42	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	402832	1.42–1.27	1-1 13%	50%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul to win	39.7%	36.5%	47.1%	0.77×	2.74
Toluca to win	32.4%	30.4%	29.3%	1.04×	3.29
Draw	27.9%	27.9%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul & not both score	20.4%	21.9%	22.7%	0.96×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	20.1%	21.9%	17.4%	1.26×	4.57
Cruz Azul & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	24.5%	0.73×	5.58
Toluca & both teams score	16.2%	17.9%	17.8%	1.01×	5.58
Toluca & not both score	16.2%	17.9%	11.7%	1.53×	5.58
Draw & not both score	7.9%	8.4%	6.6%	1.28×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul & over 1.5	31.1%	30.9%	37.3%	0.83×	3.24
Cruz Azul & under 3.5	27.5%	26.0%	30.9%	0.84×	3.84
Toluca & over 1.5	24.8%	21.7%	23.4%	0.92×	4.62
Cruz Azul & over 2.5	24.2%	21.7%	30.4%	0.71×	4.62
Toluca & under 3.5	23.0%	21.7%	19.7%	1.10×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	21.2%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	21.2%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	17.4%	1.24×	4.62
Toluca & over 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Cruz Azul & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	16.9%	1.07×	5.56
Toluca & under 2.5	13.0%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.77
Cruz Azul & over 3.5	12.2%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Cruz Azul & under 1.5	8.6%	7.9%	9.9%	0.79×	12.70
Toluca & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	9.8%	0.81×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.70
Toluca & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.30×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul (1UP)	56.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Toluca (1UP)	50.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul (2UP)	39.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Toluca (2UP)	32.4%	30.8%	—	—	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Cruz Azul to win 2nd half	33.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Toluca to win 2nd half	30.3%	34.4%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (+2.5)	92.7%	92.1%	90.9%	1.01×	1.09
Toluca (+1.5)	80.7%	82.4%	77.1%	1.07×	1.21
Cruz Azul (+0.5)	67.6%	68.7%	70.7%	0.97×	1.46
Toluca (+0.5)	60.3%	62.9%	52.9%	1.19×	1.59
Cruz Azul (-0.5)	39.7%	37.1%	47.1%	0.79×	2.70
Toluca (-0.5)	32.4%	31.3%	29.3%	1.07×	3.20
Cruz Azul (-1.5)	19.3%	17.6%	22.9%	0.77×	5.68
Cruz Azul (-2.5)	7.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.64

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to concede	75.9%	79.0%	81.9%	0.96×	1.27
Toluca clean sheet	24.1%	21.0%	18.1%	1.16×	4.76

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to concede in 1st half	45.8%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Toluca clean sheet in 1st half	54.2%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca under 6.5 corners	79.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Toluca over 2.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Toluca under 5.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Toluca over 3.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Toluca under 4.5 corners	54.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Toluca over 4.5 corners	45.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Toluca under 3.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Toluca over 5.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Toluca under 2.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Toluca over 6.5 corners	21.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca under 3.5 goals	96.0%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Toluca under 2.5 goals	86.5%	87.9%	86.7%	1.01×	1.14
Toluca over 0.5 goals	71.8%	72.0%	70.9%	1.02×	1.39
Toluca under 1.5 goals	63.9%	63.0%	64.8%	0.97×	1.59
Toluca over 1.5 goals	36.1%	37.0%	35.2%	1.05×	2.70
Toluca under 0.5 goals	28.2%	28.0%	29.1%	0.96×	3.57
Toluca over 2.5 goals	13.5%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.25
Toluca over 3.5 goals	4.0%	2.5%	4.1%	0.60×	40.67

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca under 1.5 in 1st half	90.8%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Toluca under 0.5 in 1st half	60.3%	63.9%	—	—	1.56
Toluca over 0.5 in 1st half	39.7%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Toluca over 1.5 in 1st half	9.2%	5.9%	—	—	16.99

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul (away no bet)	58.7%	57.5%	66.4%	0.87×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.3%	42.5%	33.6%	1.27×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca even goals	54.0%	52.8%	54.4%	0.97×	1.89
Toluca odd goals	46.0%	47.2%	45.6%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.7%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.3%	12.4%	—	—	8.07

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.5%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.5%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.7%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
Cruz Azul to score 2+ in a row	33.3%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Toluca to score 2+ in a row	27.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.7%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Cruz Azul to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Toluca to score 3+ in a row	8.0%	5.7%	—	—	17.69

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul corners (+3.5)	86.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cruz Azul corners (+2.5)	79.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Toluca corners (+3.5)	77.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Cruz Azul corners (+1.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Toluca corners (+2.5)	69.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Toluca corners (+1.5)	59.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cruz Azul corners (-1.5)	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cruz Azul corners (-2.5)	30.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Toluca corners (-1.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Cruz Azul corners (-3.5)	22.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Toluca corners (-2.5)	20.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Toluca corners (-3.5)	13.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
12+ corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.3%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	61.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	38.4%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	29.7%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.3%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
1-0	8.6%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.48
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	10.7%	0.70×	13.48
0-0	7.9%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.48
1-2	7.7%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.48
2-0	6.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
0-2	5.4%	7.4%	3.7%	1.99×	13.48
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.48
0-3	2.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.48
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
1-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.47
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.48
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.48
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.49
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.47
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.47
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.47
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.48
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.49
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.48
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.41×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.81×	58.49
Any other score	2.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul leading at HT (DNB)	56.2%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Toluca leading at HT (DNB)	43.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul or Toluca (12)	72.1%	72.1%	76.2%	0.95×	1.39
Cruz Azul or draw (1X)	67.6%	69.6%	70.7%	0.99×	1.44
Toluca or draw (X2)	60.3%	63.5%	52.9%	1.20×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul or draw at HT	75.4%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Toluca or draw at HT	68.5%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Cruz Azul or Toluca at HT	56.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul or draw (1UP)	67.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Toluca or draw (1UP)	60.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul or draw in 2nd half	69.7%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Toluca or draw in 2nd half	66.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Cruz Azul or Toluca in 2nd half	63.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.2%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	36.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul (DNB)	55.1%	58.2%	61.6%	0.94×	1.72
Toluca (DNB)	44.9%	41.8%	38.4%	1.09×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul to score first	48.8%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Toluca to score first	43.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	7.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.6%	54.9%	59.3%	0.92×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.4%	45.1%	40.7%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.3%	41.6%	48.0%	0.87×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	36.3%	38.5%	32.7%	1.18×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.3%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.0%	83.1%	82.6%	1.01×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.0%	16.9%	17.4%	0.97×	5.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.1%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.9%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.1%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.6%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	13.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	5.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.88

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.6%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.4%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.8%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
A half without a goal	46.2%	46.6%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.7%	47.4%	46.2%	1.03×	2.11
4-6 goals	26.3%	26.4%	29.1%	0.91×	3.78
0-1 goals	24.0%	22.8%	22.2%	1.03×	4.38
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	54.60

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca to score exactly 1	35.7%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
Toluca to score exactly 0	28.2%	27.4%	29.1%	0.94×	3.65
Toluca to score exactly 2	22.6%	22.4%	22.0%	1.02×	4.46
Toluca to score 3+	13.5%	12.8%	13.3%	0.96×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul to score exactly 1	34.3%	32.7%	33.4%	0.98×	3.06
Cruz Azul to score exactly 2	24.4%	23.2%	26.6%	0.87×	4.30
Cruz Azul to score exactly 0	24.1%	23.2%	18.1%	1.28×	4.30
Cruz Azul to score 3+	17.2%	18.9%	22.2%	0.85×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	44.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Cruz Azul leading at HT	31.5%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Toluca leading at HT	24.6%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul -1: 2	60.3%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Cruz Azul -1: X	20.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Cruz Azul -1: 1	19.3%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (0:1)	60.3%	61.5%	52.9%	1.16×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.4%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12
Cruz Azul (0:1)	19.3%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (0:2)	80.7%	82.8%	77.1%	1.07×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	11.0%	14.0%	0.78×	9.13
Cruz Azul (0:2)	7.3%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (0:3)	92.7%	92.6%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.20
Cruz Azul (0:3)	2.2%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.8%	0.67×	83.56
Cruz Azul (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	83.69

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul (1:0)	67.6%	70.0%	70.7%	0.99×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.0%	17.0%	19.0%	0.90×	5.87
Toluca (1:0)	14.4%	12.8%	10.5%	1.22×	7.80

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul (2:0)	85.6%	88.4%	89.5%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.5%	6.5%	7.3%	0.89×	15.47
Toluca (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	3.4%	0.67×	44.08

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul to concede	71.8%	73.1%	70.9%	1.03×	1.37
Cruz Azul clean sheet	28.2%	26.9%	29.1%	0.92×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul clean sheet in 1st half	60.3%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Cruz Azul to concede in 1st half	39.7%	36.0%	—	—	2.78

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul over 2.5 corners	82.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Cruz Azul under 6.5 corners	71.4%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Cruz Azul over 3.5 corners	68.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Cruz Azul under 5.5 corners	59.8%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Cruz Azul over 4.5 corners	53.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Cruz Azul under 4.5 corners	46.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Cruz Azul over 5.5 corners	40.2%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Cruz Azul under 3.5 corners	31.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Cruz Azul over 6.5 corners	28.6%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Cruz Azul under 2.5 corners	18.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul under 3.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Cruz Azul under 2.5 goals	82.8%	82.1%	77.8%	1.06×	1.22
Cruz Azul over 0.5 goals	75.9%	77.7%	81.9%	0.95×	1.29
Cruz Azul under 1.5 goals	58.4%	58.8%	51.3%	1.15×	1.70
Cruz Azul over 1.5 goals	41.6%	41.2%	48.7%	0.85×	2.43
Cruz Azul under 0.5 goals	24.1%	22.3%	18.1%	1.23×	4.49
Cruz Azul over 2.5 goals	17.2%	17.9%	22.2%	0.81×	5.59
Cruz Azul over 3.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	7.6%	1.01×	12.93

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul under 1.5 in 1st half	87.4%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Cruz Azul over 0.5 in 1st half	45.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Cruz Azul under 0.5 in 1st half	54.2%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Cruz Azul over 1.5 in 1st half	12.6%	10.2%	—	—	9.79

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca (home no bet)	53.7%	51.6%	55.2%	0.94×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	46.3%	48.4%	44.8%	1.08×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul even goals	52.9%	50.6%	49.9%	1.01×	1.98
Cruz Azul odd goals	47.1%	49.4%	50.1%	0.99×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	19.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 0-1	16.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	10.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.18
HT 2-0	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.40
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.65

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul at HT / Cruz Azul at FT	23.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Toluca at HT / Toluca at FT	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Cruz Azul at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Toluca at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Cruz Azul at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Toluca at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
Cruz Azul at HT / Toluca at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Toluca at HT / Cruz Azul at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.83

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul to score last	48.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Toluca to score last	43.3%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	7.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.1%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Cruz Azul to lead by 1 at any time	56.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Toluca to lead by 1 at any time	50.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.4%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Cruz Azul to lead by 2 at any time	25.5%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Toluca to lead by 2 at any time	20.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.74
Cruz Azul to lead by 3 at any time	9.2%	6.7%	—	—	15.02
Toluca to lead by 3 at any time	6.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.15

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul most corners	50.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Toluca most corners	38.5%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	86.5%	1.01×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.0%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.8%	63.4%	61.8%	1.03×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.5%	63.4%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.4%	48.7%	53.3%	0.91×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.7%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.8%	43.6%	49.0%	0.89×	2.30
1-2 goals	41.8%	43.6%	37.7%	1.16×	2.30
3-4 goals	36.8%	39.1%	38.4%	1.02×	2.56
4-6 goals	26.3%	30.2%	29.1%	1.04×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.8%	24.5%	24.9%	0.98×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.5%	14.9%	15.1%	0.98×	6.73
7+ goals	2.0%	2.5%	2.8%	0.90×	39.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul never behind	42.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Toluca never behind	35.7%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.8%	52.6%	0.97×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.2%	47.4%	1.04×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.7%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.3%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.5%	87.6%	82.2%	1.07×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.0%	77.3%	77.8%	0.99×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.7%	72.5%	68.2%	1.06×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.4%	52.5%	56.0%	0.94×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.6%	47.5%	44.1%	1.08×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	28.3%	27.5%	31.8%	0.86×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	24.0%	22.7%	22.2%	1.02×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	13.5%	12.4%	17.8%	0.70×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	6.6%	1.18×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	7.1%	1.09×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.5%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.1%	81.1%	79.3%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.7%	67.4%	71.6%	0.94×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.7%	62.1%	58.1%	1.07×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.4%	37.9%	41.9%	0.90×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.3%	32.6%	28.4%	1.15×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.9%	18.9%	20.7%	0.92×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.1%	7.5%	8.0%	0.95×	13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	3.0%	0.93×	36.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.1%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.0%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca not to score in both halves	78.9%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Cruz Azul not to score in both halves	74.5%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Cruz Azul to score in both halves	25.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Toluca to score in both halves	21.1%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.6%	58.3%	59.3%	0.98×	1.71
Only Cruz Azul scores	20.4%	22.3%	22.7%	0.98×	4.48
Only Toluca scores	16.2%	16.1%	11.7%	1.37×	6.23
Neither team scores	7.9%	7.2%	6.6%	1.09×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.6%	25.0%	22.0%	1.13×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	16.1%	17.4%	15.8%	1.10×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	10.8%	0.71×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	7.9%	7.6%	6.6%	1.16×	13.09
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.10

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	21.2%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca not to win both halves	92.4%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Cruz Azul not to win both halves	89.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Cruz Azul to win both halves	10.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Toluca to win both halves	7.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.58

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cruz Azul to win either half	54.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Toluca to win neither half	52.8%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Toluca to win either half	47.2%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Cruz Azul to win neither half	45.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toluca not to win to nil	83.8%	83.0%	88.3%	0.94×	1.20
Cruz Azul not to win to nil	79.6%	78.1%	77.3%	1.01×	1.28
Cruz Azul to win to nil	20.4%	21.9%	22.7%	0.96×	4.56
Toluca to win to nil	16.2%	17.0%	11.7%	1.45×	5.90

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.9%	27.9%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59
Cruz Azul by 1	20.4%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
Toluca by 1	18.0%	16.9%	19.0%	0.89×	5.91
Cruz Azul by 2	12.1%	11.8%	14.0%	0.84×	8.48
Toluca by 2	9.5%	7.3%	7.3%	1.00×	13.78
Cruz Azul by 3+	7.3%	7.3%	9.1%	0.80×	13.79
Toluca by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	3.4%	0.80×	36.94