Crystal Palace v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.69
Goals − xG
-1.35 – -2.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
39.8%
Draw
27.6%
Aston Villa win
32.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–1.40 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 1.35 xGAston Villa 2.08 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 16' |
 Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 24' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 39' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Victor Lindelöf | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.58 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Lindelöf |
| 50' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Will Hughes |
| 52' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Brennan Johnson | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Devenny |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Will Hughes |
| 66' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 79' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Matthew Cash |
| 85' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 85' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 91' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.58 | 0.07 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| John McGinn AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Jadon Sancho AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Bizot Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Johnson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Justin Devenny DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 0.77 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.72 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.37 | 0.73 |
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.51 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borna Sosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |