Crystal Palace v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 25 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 6
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 6
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.87 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.42 – +0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
43.5%
Draw
27.1%
Aston Villa win
29.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.72–1.42 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 4.42 xGAston Villa 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20' |
 Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrés García |
| 28' |
 Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 28' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.65 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 37' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 37' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ollie Watkins |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Axel Disasi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eberechi Eze |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 67' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Lucas Digne |
| 68' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 70' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Muñoz |
| 73' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 80' |
Aston Villa |
Leon Bailey | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | John McGinn |
| 90' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 95' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Marco Asensio |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Youri Tielemans MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John McGinn MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Lucas Digne DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Jacob Ramsey FWL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García DMR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Robin Olsen Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Marco Asensio Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2.00 | 0.53 | 1.98 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.66 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 1.12 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.72 | 2.71 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.54 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1.35 |
| Will Hughes MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.97 |