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Crystal Palace v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

3–1
1.61 – 1.29 xG
Shots
13 – 9
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+1.39 – -0.29
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Keane Lewis-Potter 1' — goalMichael Olise 13' — goalEberechi Eze 38' — goalMichael Olise 57' — goal
Crystal Palace 1.61 xGBrentford 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Keane Lewis-Potter 1' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 9' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 13' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 15' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Saman Ghoddos 16' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Keane Lewis-Potter 17' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nathan Collins 26' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Eberechi Eze 38' — Goal (0.39 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 40' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 45' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jordan Ayew 46' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jefferson Lerma 47' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Christian Nørgaard 52' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 57' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 57' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Saman Ghoddos 59' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 66' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Eberechi Eze 71' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 75' — Shot On Post (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yoane Wissa 75' — Missed Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 82' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Joachim Andersen 88' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)
Crystal Palace attacking right Brentford attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Brentford Keane Lewis-Potter 0.40 Open Play Left Foot Goal Mads Roerslev
9' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jefferson Lerma
13' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.40 Open Play Left Foot Goal Jordan Ayew
15' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
16' Brentford Saman Ghoddos 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Keane Lewis-Potter
17' Brentford Keane Lewis-Potter 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Mads Roerslev
26' Brentford Nathan Collins 0.02 From Corner Missed Shot Saman Ghoddos
38' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Goal Tyrick Mitchell
40' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
45' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Eberechi Eze
46' Crystal Palace Jordan Ayew 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Tyrick Mitchell
47' Crystal Palace Jefferson Lerma 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Eberechi Eze
52' Brentford Christian Nørgaard 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
57' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jordan Ayew
57' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Goal Marc Guehi
59' Brentford Saman Ghoddos 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
66' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jean-Philippe Mateta
71' Crystal Palace Eberechi Eze 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Michael Olise
75' Brentford Neal Maupay 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Mikkel Damsgaard
75' Brentford Yoane Wissa 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Vitaly Janelt
82' Brentford Neal Maupay 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
88' Crystal Palace Joachim Andersen 0.07 Set Piece Missed Shot Michael Olise

Players

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Michael Olise FWR 90 2 0 6 2 0.84 0.19 1.44
Eberechi Eze MC 90 1 0 3 2 0.54 0.17 1.18
Jefferson Lerma MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.02 0.23
Jordan Ayew FWL 90 0 1 1 2 0.08 0.50 0.61
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.61
Jean-Philippe Mateta FW 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.15 0.29
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.69
Dean Henderson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Nathaniel Clyne DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.64
Tyrick Mitchell DL 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.47 1.00
Chris Richards MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.88
Jeffrey Schlupp Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matheus França Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Will Hughes Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Brentford

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yoane Wissa FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.58 0.00 0.60
Saman Ghoddos DML 90 0 0 2 2 0.06 0.02 0.68
Nathan Collins DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.64
Zanka DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Ethan Pinnock DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Mark Flekken GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Keane Lewis-Potter FW 86 1 0 2 1 0.49 0.02 0.51
Vitaly Janelt MC 86 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.58 0.62
Christian Nørgaard MC 73 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Mads Roerslev DMR 69 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.49 0.51
Mathias Jensen MC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Neal Maupay Sub 21 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Frank Onyeka Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Mikkel Damsgaard Sub 17 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.62
Michael Olakigbe Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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